Thursday, December 08, 2005

Comprehensive Bowl Preview!

New Orleans Bowl:

Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss.

Arkansas State is not a good team. I expect them to get blown out by the Golden Eagles, who should have some sort of Katrina-related motivation to win this game. It’s also a rather short drive from Hattiesburg to Lafayette.

The real question is whether or not I’ll be at this game: it’s only a short drive from Shreveport to Lafayette, and it seems like a fun thing to do.

Southern Miss 41, Arkansas State 13.

GMAC Bowl:

UTEP vs. Toledo.

I expect this bowl to lose money this year.

What, I have to say more? Alright, the Rockets get a second chance at redemption on a national stage, while Mike Price keeps trying to convince people he’s a legitimate big-stage coach. (He is, by the way, and the Miners win.)

UTEP 52, Toledo 41.

Las Vegas Bowl:

Cal vs. BYU.

California was supposed to be better than this. They were supposed to challenge USC this year. But somewhere along the way they lost every meaningful game they played this year. BYU came pretty close to beating TCU, and this game should be a high-scoring, interesting game of two teams that probably underachieved.

Still, Cal made a statement with their final game of the year, and their defense really stepped up. I expect them to seek redemption for the Holiday Bowl debacle last year, and they’ll outscore BYU.

Cal 45, BYU 24.

Poinsettia Bowl:

Colorado State vs. Navy.

Colorado State seems sort of inconsistent. They lost to SD State by like 20. Navy was pretty close to going 9-2 this year. I like Navy in this one, and it should be fun to watch them run the option, since no team west of the Mississippi can play defense (kidding, kidding… Texas is west of the Mississippi, I know…)

Navy 34, CSU 23.


Fort Worth Bowl:

Kansas vs. Houston.

Kansas hasn’t won on the road all year. I’m going for another C-USA team winning this game. Houston can flat out score, and Kansas shouldn’t really be bowl eligible anyway. They beat Appalachian State, a 1-AA team, and only have five wins against D-1 opponents.

Houston 28, Kansas 20.

Hawaii Bowl:

Nevada vs. UCF.

It’s important to note that UCF lost at home to Tulsa in a game that was for the C-USA championship. On a side note, Nevada seems pretty good, and beat Fresno State.

It’s really tough to put this game in any sort of "context," since both teams have some pretty horrible losses, but it’s a shorter flight for Nevada. Go Wolfpack!

Nevada 35, UCF 17.

Motor City Bowl:

Memphis vs. Akron.

This is the most interesting story line of any of the bowls so far.

Akron is basically playing a home game in Detroit, while Memphis has Heisman candidate D’Angelo Williams. I think Memphis is more consistent, and Akron isn’t really that good of a team, except when they play Northern Illinois. This should be a fun game, but I like the Tigers to beat the Zips.

Memphis 27, Akron 17.

Champs Sports Bowl:

Clemson vs. Colorado.

Who expects Colorado to win this game? And why hasn’t Gary Barnett been fired yet? I’m looking for Charlie Whitehurst and the Tigers to put up a lot of points in this one.

On a side note, I completely cheated and checked out what ESPN had to say on this one, after I wrote that last sentence, of course. Here’s what they said: “The Buffaloes were outscored 100-6 in their last two games. Do they want to be in Orlando? Do they want to play for coach Gary Barnett? Clemson went 7-4 with two overtime losses and two others by a total of five points. The Tigers are tough.”

Wow, that was insightful.

Clemson 38, Colorado 13.

***Editor’s Note*** Gary Barnett has been fired. I need to finish things up more quickly.

Clemson 27, Colorado 17.

Insight Bowl:

Rutgers vs. Arizona State.

I hate this bowl already, mainly because they have the name of a horrible local Louisville monopoly as their main sponsor.

You know, bowl games which double as home games for one of the teams involved shouldn’t really be considered true tests of the matchup. I actually like Rutgers on a neutral site, but they’ll probably lose down in Phoenix.

Apparently Arizona State is good at passing, while Rutgers has this talented freshman running back named Ray Rice who ran for 1,000 yards. I didn’t know either of these facts until I looked them up. Maybe I’m not exactly “qualified to do this.”

Arizona State 31, Rutgers 20.

MPC Computers Bowl:

Boise State vs. Boston College.

See “Insight Bowl comments.” No, seriously, Boston College is getting jobbed by having to play on the blue turf. It’ll be interesting to see how they respond. I sort of think they’ll come out guns blazing, and I think they’ll beat Boise State with defense. Mathias Kiwanuka is a flat-out force. In an upset special, I’ll take the Eagles, who outscore the Broncos and make enough defensive plays to win.

Boston College 35, Boise State 24.

Alamo Bowl:

Michigan vs. Nebraska.

Keep in mind, Michigan’s four losses were to Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Notre Dame. Nebraska lost to, among others, Kansas. I think that says enough about who I think will win the game. Plus, Mike Hart will be back for Michigan, Chad Henne is a great quarterback (there, I said it) and Michigan’s defense is fairly solid.

Michigan 28, Nebraska 17.

Emerald Bowl:

Georgia Tech vs. Utah.

Um, I’ll take Georgia Tech in this one. Their defense is too solid for the Utes to keep up with. Calvin Johnson is the best receiver in the country, and Utah won’t be able to keep up. As you might have noticed, I have no respect for the Mountain West this year.

Georgia Tech 31, Utah 7.

Holiday Bowl:

Oregon vs. Oklahoma.

This is a great matchup, because Oklahoma was supposed to be a lot better than this, and they still have the ridiculously talented Adrian Peterson. I also think Bob Stoops has “righted the ship,” and that Oregon dodged a rather sizable obstacle in not having to play UCLA this year. I’m also of the opinion that the Pac-10 teams should play each other every year. But schools like Washington State need that extra patsy to give their fans hope every year.

Plus, this game is being played as the Holiday Bowl, which is always a delight to watch. It’s a tough one to call, but Oregon should be sufficiently motivated to beat the Sooners, who haven’t played a whole lot of defense this year. Plus, Oklahoma has a freshman QB. Look for some late-quarter dramatics from Kelven Clemons.

Oregon 34, Oklahoma 28.

Music City Bowl:

Minnesota vs. Virginia.

Here are two wildly inconsistent teams who would readily lose to each other if given the chance. Unfortunately, one of these teams has to win. Give the edge to Minnesota, who can run the ball at will. By the way, Al Groh should probably be the next coach to have his job in jeopardy.

Minnesota 24, Virginia 20.

Sun Bowl:

Northwestern vs. UCLA.

So I read this article in USA Today stating that Drew Olsen was a legitimate Heisman contender; that he was the best quarterback in the Pac-10, and that he wasn’t getting enough respect.

So I watched this game where USC dominated UCLA on all sides of the ball, including holding Olsen to a very marginal game.

I’m willing to split the difference between those results, which calls me to pick UCLA over Northwestern in a large shoot-out. Northwestern seems to me to be another Big-10 team that can’t win much on the road.

On a side note, I always love to watch this game; the fans always seem a little too jacked up to be in El Paso. At least the fans at the Motor City bowl always seem to have some reservations about being there.

UCLA 41, Northwestern 35.

Independence Bowl:

Missouri vs. South Carolina.

You know, it’s funny. A lot of bowl games between marginal teams seem extremely one-sided in one direction. The I-Bowl is no exception; there’s not a single person on Earth who’s going to pick Mizzou in this one. So, using logic, I’m on Earth… go Gamecocks.

On a side note, this will be the first time in four years that I haven’t attended this bowl. It should benefit from a large turnout, but I think that this game is in trouble without a major sponsor. Somebody, please sponsor the I-Bowl.

South Carolina 28, Missouri 13.

Peach Bowl:

Miami vs. LSU.

This is the first big match-up, and it’s really difficult to tell who will win. LSU is clearly on the ropes after getting thrashed by Georgia, but Miami’s offense has been really inconsistent. I think that Miami is too consistent on the other sides of the ball to lose to LSU, but I am sort of pulling for LSU in this one. At least there will be some defense.

LSU 16, Miami 14.

Meineke Bowl:

South Florida vs. N.C. State.

I have to take South Florida in this game, since they beat Louisville. Wait… no, I don’t. N.C. State’s defense is too good for them to lose, and they’ll score a few points in what amounts to be a home game for them.

N.C. State 23, South Florida 7.

Liberty Bowl:

Tulsa vs. Fresno State.

The chic pick for this game seems to be C-USA champion Tulsa, but Fresno State can score a lot of points. The Bulldogs have had a lot of close calls against better teams this year, but they are battle-tested and should be ready to play the Hurricane.

This bowl might lose money too, come to think about it. I'm not sure why they were so eager to take Fresno to start with.

Fresno State 38, Tulsa 21.

Houston Bowl:

TCU vs. Iowa State.

This game is closer than it appears: Iowa State is a sneaky good team, and TCU has won a lot of close games this year. So I’ll revert back to my rule about “virtual home games.” TCU will win this one, but Iowa State beats the spread. By the way, Bret Meyer is one of my favorite quarterbacks in the country.

TCU 28, Iowa State 24.

Cotton Bowl:

Texas Tech vs. Alabama.

The quintessential question: does good offense beat good defense? The answer is no: Alabama wins this game. Texas Tech hasn’t been too strong against opponents who’ve had good defenses, and the Big 12 is fairly weak this year. By the way, Alabama was pretty close to running the table this year: a better second half against LSU, and they probably play better against Auburn… wait, the logic is compounding. I still like the Tide in this one. I want them to beat the Red Raiders and that QB Ross, who claimed he could score 100 points in a game. Yeah, you did that well in the Big 12.

Alabama 24, Texas Tech 21.

Outback Bowl:

Iowa vs. Florida.

This year, it’s Florida’s turn to thrash Iowa in the Outback Bowl. If you thought you saw this bowl two years ago, you aren’t wrong. Chris Leak, by the way, is my favorite player in college football. Florida’s offense is reborn, and the Gators win going away.

Florida 31, Iowa 14.

Gator Bowl:

Louisville vs. Virginia Tech.

You know, Louisville can still score points without Brian Brohm. Virginia Tech, by the way, has looked very shaky on offense. I think Louisville’s offense will find a way to score some points, and I’m taking Louisville in this one. (Note: I would take Louisville “no matter what.”)

Oh, I guess I have to write another paragraph. Well, Louisville has more than one good receiver (implying Jimmy Williams won't be as much of a force as he could be), Marcus Vick is an X-factor or an X, and Virginia Tech's special teams are fun to watch.

Louisville 28, VT 20.

Capital One Bowl:

Auburn vs. Wisconsin.

This seems like more of a mismatch than it actually is. Wisconsin will be very motivated to win this game and can flat-out run the football. Brian Calhoun has 21 touchdowns this year. Barry Alvarez is coaching his last game. But Auburn is the better team, plays better defense, and has a pretty good offense itself.

Oh, let’s take the Badgers.

Wisconsin 27, Auburn 23.

Fiesta Bowl:

Notre Dame vs. Ohio State.

Ohio State has a great defense. Notre Dame has a great offense. But Ohio State is probably more balanced than Notre Dame—a team that looked quite susceptible in their narrow win over Stanford. Plus, I go to OSU now.

Still, it’s important to give Brady Quinn “sufficient props.” Rumor is that he’s the best NFL QB prospect; some people even have him ahead of Matt Leinart.

The only way Notre Dame wins this game is if they win on special teams. But that's entirely possible with Ginn returning punts.


OSU 24, Notre Dame 20.

Sugar Bowl:

Georgia vs. West Virginia.

Ultimately, West Virginia doesn’t stand much of a chance in this game, mainly because they’re too one-dimensional, don’t have a phenomenal defense, and are playing on the road. Still, I’d like to think that they’re a little more legitimate than they get credit for. It’s foolish to pick against Shockley and the Bulldogs at home, though, and Georgia wins this game.

Georgia 28, WVU 10.

Orange Bowl:

Penn State vs. Florida State.

So Joe Paterno proved that he’s a smart coach this year, leading the Nittany Lions to the Orange Bowl. Plus, he recently stiffed some reporters, which is always nice. I don’t know how well Penn State will get up for this game. They’ll either come in with a chip on their shoulder (option A) or will have a let-down (option B). Or, they’ll have some sort of convex combination of the two outcomes. Whatever the case, it should be enough to beat the ‘Noles.

Penn State 17, FSU 7.

Rose Bowl

coming soon... no, I might actually give some real analysis (oh, I'll stop with the math jokes...) on this one.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

New Orleans Bowl? Yes, I think you should go.

2:10 PM  
Blogger mike said...

here's the tale of the tape on these games:

right result + right analysis:
Las Vegas Bowl, Poinsettia Bowl, Motor City Bowl, Champs Sports Bowl, Sun Bowl, Insight Bowl, MPC Computers Bowl, Houston Bowl, Meineke Bowl.
right result
New Orleans Bowl, Hawaii Bowl, Peach Bowl.
wrong result, right idea...
Alamo Bowl (my projected score was the actual score at one point, I think I was in the right ballpark on this one), Music City (c'mon)
wrong, wrong, wrong...
GMAC Bowl, Fort Worth Bowl, Emerald Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Independence Bowl, Liberty Bowl.

4:20 PM  

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