NBA DRAFT!!! AHHHH!!!!
The NBA Draft is traditionally a joyous occasion, where really bad teams celebrate their fortune in a brief ray of hope which finds enterprising youth in ugly suit jackets on the big stage.
So why is this year's NBA Draft shaping up to be one of the ugliest drafts ever?
Well, much as the year 2000, there's no real definition to the lottery. Last year, we found the lottery shaping up at the very end, with three solid point guards drafted after two big men who were "projects."
This year, there's none of that. There aren't any players who are projected to be superstars instantly; moreover, there's no clear consensus on what each particular player's actual projection even is.
So, with all of this in mind, I'll make my projections of what each team should pick.
1. Toronto Raptors...
The Raptors have the propensity to screw this pick up the way few teams can. There have been reports that Indiana wanted this pick (and was willing to trade Jermaine O'Neal for it), which I find unlikely since Indiana isn't that silly. So, let's assume that Toronto, who wants to trade down and take Andrea Bargnani, can't trade down with anyone. They take...
Andrea Bargnani.
Admittedly, I know nothing about this guy, but Toronto, who needs a center, will probably end up taking this guy because he can shoot and there's always a chance that they can trade for a center anyway. Toronto's not really good enough to fool anyone here, so they'll probably take the guy they want. That seemed to work for them last year.
2. Chicago Bulls.
The problem for the Bulls is that there's not a logical direction for this pick to go other than size. It's buyer beware with size in this draft, so I would pick the guy from Texas who, despite getting dominated by LSU in the Elite Eight, is still the logical pick here. That guy...
LaMarcus Aldridge.
The knock on Aldridge is heart and confidence. Still, you can't coach post moves, height, or talent (don't quote me on the first one, but there are still many guys in the NBA who can't do anything in the post, so it's something you've either got (or not). I'd take Aldridge here over Tyrus Thomas, a guy who will probably slide in my draft further than he will in the actual draft.
3. Charlotte Bobcats.
There's never any logic to what the Bobcats seem to be doing, but I'll give the Bobcats a hint here: Rudy Gay is your franchise. Rudy Gay is your franchise. Rudy Gay is your franchise.
Rudy Gay.
Seriously, this is the only no-brainer in the draft. The Bobcats need a scorer whose name doesn't end in Rush. Rudy Gay is a scorer who happened to go to the same school as their star center. I think the logic is obvious.
4. Portland Trail Blazers.
By now, the Trail Blazer fans are rabid for the guy that looks like a pirate. The problem for Adam Morrison is that he may not be the guy that really clicks with that Blazer team (partially because he plays the same position as Darius Miles, a player who is quickly becoming the posterchild for all that is wrong with the NBA (which is a true shame, considering where he came from.) Honestly, I feel that Miles is impressionable and got caught up with the wrong crowd.
Adam Morrison.
Obviously, this guy has to be chosen sort of near the top, but he might not be a whole lot better than Wally Szczerbiak. Sorry to disappoint you, Blazers fans. (Wait, there aren't any Blazers fans.)
5. Atlanta Hawks.
Apparently, the Hawks are working some sort of sign-and-trade with Brandon Roy to send him to the Rockets, who want a guard that doesn't suck to be on their team. I'll go with this arbitrary rumor, so I'll let the Hawks take...
Brandon Roy.
Roy should really be on the Hawks, but there are widespread rumors that the Hawks have already agreed to some sort of deal with Shelden Williams, which might be the worst idea ever. Actually, I like Shelden, but the problem is that they already drafted Marvin Williams last year. Maybe they got confused.
6. Minnesota T-Wolves.
This is the most critical pick in the draft. The T-Wolves finally get to be in the lottery after the Joe Smith debacle, which gives them first strike at my pick for the best player in the draft, UConn point guard Marcus Williams. His value would almost certainly be higher without the baggage that he's carrying around.
Marcus Williams.
This is the first and probably only peace offering that will be made to Kevin Garnett; I think it's some sort of apology for signing Marko Jaric. Now, McHale only needs to apologize for Olowokandi, Ricky Davis, Sprewell...
7. Boston Celtics.
The Celtics have a problem at this pick; namely, they'd like to take Randy Foye, but Tyrus Thomas is still available, and he's looking a lot better than Al Jefferson at this point. I also
think the Celtics might trade out of this pick, so let's assume they take...
Tyrus Thomas.
Here's the thing. The Celtics aren't going anywhere; so they'll probably try to maximize their potential for the future, since that seems to be what they've done the past few drafts.
8. Houston Rockets.
There's that trade I was mentioning... the Rockets have incentive to take Randy Foye at this point, but they'll take...
Shelden Williams.
They'll obtain Brandon Roy, and they'll make the playoffs, like they were supposed to this year.
9. Golden State Warriors.
I think Golden State could take anyone in this spot and they would still be very inconsistent and very shaky as a franchise. So, as they consider taking Villanova's Randy Foye, the player that everyone has fallen in love with as of late, they'll have to deal with the fact that they've obtained Baron Davis willingly and can't just kick him to the curb like they want to.
Randy Foye.
Foye has a little bit of Wade in him, but let's be realistic: he's more likely to be a very solid pro, which should make him a nice fit for the Warriors.
10. Seattle Sonics.
I think Seattle has a fairly reasonable choice in Rodney Carney.
Rodney Carney.
The rationale: he's a safe pick who can run the floor and possibly shoot, which is something the Sonics want. Plus, having Carney around could provide some leeway for the Sonics when they decide to get rid of Rashard Lewis.
So why is this year's NBA Draft shaping up to be one of the ugliest drafts ever?
Well, much as the year 2000, there's no real definition to the lottery. Last year, we found the lottery shaping up at the very end, with three solid point guards drafted after two big men who were "projects."
This year, there's none of that. There aren't any players who are projected to be superstars instantly; moreover, there's no clear consensus on what each particular player's actual projection even is.
So, with all of this in mind, I'll make my projections of what each team should pick.
1. Toronto Raptors...
The Raptors have the propensity to screw this pick up the way few teams can. There have been reports that Indiana wanted this pick (and was willing to trade Jermaine O'Neal for it), which I find unlikely since Indiana isn't that silly. So, let's assume that Toronto, who wants to trade down and take Andrea Bargnani, can't trade down with anyone. They take...
Andrea Bargnani.
Admittedly, I know nothing about this guy, but Toronto, who needs a center, will probably end up taking this guy because he can shoot and there's always a chance that they can trade for a center anyway. Toronto's not really good enough to fool anyone here, so they'll probably take the guy they want. That seemed to work for them last year.
2. Chicago Bulls.
The problem for the Bulls is that there's not a logical direction for this pick to go other than size. It's buyer beware with size in this draft, so I would pick the guy from Texas who, despite getting dominated by LSU in the Elite Eight, is still the logical pick here. That guy...
LaMarcus Aldridge.
The knock on Aldridge is heart and confidence. Still, you can't coach post moves, height, or talent (don't quote me on the first one, but there are still many guys in the NBA who can't do anything in the post, so it's something you've either got (or not). I'd take Aldridge here over Tyrus Thomas, a guy who will probably slide in my draft further than he will in the actual draft.
3. Charlotte Bobcats.
There's never any logic to what the Bobcats seem to be doing, but I'll give the Bobcats a hint here: Rudy Gay is your franchise. Rudy Gay is your franchise. Rudy Gay is your franchise.
Rudy Gay.
Seriously, this is the only no-brainer in the draft. The Bobcats need a scorer whose name doesn't end in Rush. Rudy Gay is a scorer who happened to go to the same school as their star center. I think the logic is obvious.
4. Portland Trail Blazers.
By now, the Trail Blazer fans are rabid for the guy that looks like a pirate. The problem for Adam Morrison is that he may not be the guy that really clicks with that Blazer team (partially because he plays the same position as Darius Miles, a player who is quickly becoming the posterchild for all that is wrong with the NBA (which is a true shame, considering where he came from.) Honestly, I feel that Miles is impressionable and got caught up with the wrong crowd.
Adam Morrison.
Obviously, this guy has to be chosen sort of near the top, but he might not be a whole lot better than Wally Szczerbiak. Sorry to disappoint you, Blazers fans. (Wait, there aren't any Blazers fans.)
5. Atlanta Hawks.
Apparently, the Hawks are working some sort of sign-and-trade with Brandon Roy to send him to the Rockets, who want a guard that doesn't suck to be on their team. I'll go with this arbitrary rumor, so I'll let the Hawks take...
Brandon Roy.
Roy should really be on the Hawks, but there are widespread rumors that the Hawks have already agreed to some sort of deal with Shelden Williams, which might be the worst idea ever. Actually, I like Shelden, but the problem is that they already drafted Marvin Williams last year. Maybe they got confused.
6. Minnesota T-Wolves.
This is the most critical pick in the draft. The T-Wolves finally get to be in the lottery after the Joe Smith debacle, which gives them first strike at my pick for the best player in the draft, UConn point guard Marcus Williams. His value would almost certainly be higher without the baggage that he's carrying around.
Marcus Williams.
This is the first and probably only peace offering that will be made to Kevin Garnett; I think it's some sort of apology for signing Marko Jaric. Now, McHale only needs to apologize for Olowokandi, Ricky Davis, Sprewell...
7. Boston Celtics.
The Celtics have a problem at this pick; namely, they'd like to take Randy Foye, but Tyrus Thomas is still available, and he's looking a lot better than Al Jefferson at this point. I also
think the Celtics might trade out of this pick, so let's assume they take...
Tyrus Thomas.
Here's the thing. The Celtics aren't going anywhere; so they'll probably try to maximize their potential for the future, since that seems to be what they've done the past few drafts.
8. Houston Rockets.
There's that trade I was mentioning... the Rockets have incentive to take Randy Foye at this point, but they'll take...
Shelden Williams.
They'll obtain Brandon Roy, and they'll make the playoffs, like they were supposed to this year.
9. Golden State Warriors.
I think Golden State could take anyone in this spot and they would still be very inconsistent and very shaky as a franchise. So, as they consider taking Villanova's Randy Foye, the player that everyone has fallen in love with as of late, they'll have to deal with the fact that they've obtained Baron Davis willingly and can't just kick him to the curb like they want to.
Randy Foye.
Foye has a little bit of Wade in him, but let's be realistic: he's more likely to be a very solid pro, which should make him a nice fit for the Warriors.
10. Seattle Sonics.
I think Seattle has a fairly reasonable choice in Rodney Carney.
Rodney Carney.
The rationale: he's a safe pick who can run the floor and possibly shoot, which is something the Sonics want. Plus, having Carney around could provide some leeway for the Sonics when they decide to get rid of Rashard Lewis.
posted by mike at 8:32 PM
2 Comments:
Over/Under on Big Stan's box office:
1.5 mil.
dude, wait for me to represent.
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