third annual bowl preview, 2007. (part 2)
and as long as you disappear, we'll just say you were never here.
alamo bowl. san antonio. penn state vs. texas a & m.
penn state thoroughly confuses me as a football team. my gut tells me that they should be able to stop texas a & m's running game and that they should be able to score some points and win this one. but i just don't know what to say about these guys.
take paterno and run?
penn state 24, texas a & m 13.
independence bowl. shreveport. alabama vs. colorado.
both teams have had flashes of brilliance this year.
that's the only nice thing i can say about this game, so i'll stop here.
colorado 31, alabama 23.
armed forces. fort worth. cal vs. air force.
an interesting thing happened along the way to cal's season of brilliance. their qb got hurt, and they just couldn't stop the losing. and so in some sense, i think that this game is completely out of air force's hands, because if cal shows up, this game will be a whitewashing. too much speed, experience, talent, etc.
will cal show up?
cal 38, air force 17.
humanitarian. boise. georgia tech vs. fresno state.
what's ridiculous is that georgia tech has actually played in this game before, namely in 2004, when they obliterated tulsa. since that game, i've been particularly wary of taking wac teams in any game, because i have a tendency to believe that they're not very good.
but nonetheless, i suspect that fresno state will win this game.
fresno state 31, ga. tech 28.
sun bowl. el paso. south florida vs. oregon.
if you had announced this as a bowl matchup a month ago, people might have tabbed this one for the fiesta bowl.
dennis dixon's injury and south florida's defense both let us down. and the football gods were merciless by assigning these two teams to el paso, a place where no fan should have to go for football. oregon hasn't won since dixon's injury, and they wont beat usf either.
usf 27, oregon 10.
music city. nashville. uk vs. fsu.
if florida state is missing 25 players, they shouldn't be able to beat kentucky. too much andre woodson in this one.
uk 35, fsu 17.
insight. tempe. indiana vs. oklahoma state.
neither one of these teams deserves to be in a bowl, particularly indiana, a team that ducked both michigan and ohio state in their big ten schedule. oklahoma state has enough offense to score some points in this one, and i think they'll win this one rather handily.
ok state 41, iu 21.
chick-fil-a peach. atlanta. clemson vs. auburn.
the obvious pick in this one is clemson, a team that sort of peaked toward the end of the season, with an explosive qb and talented running back. so it's instructive to note that auburn shut down two incredibly explosive offenses in arkansas and florida.
this one should be close.
auburn 17, clemson 13.
outback. tampa. wisconsin vs. tennessee.
wisconsin hasn't done anything meaningful all year except for upsetting michigan. tennessee is highly volatile, and rode a win over georgia way further than they should have been allowed to ride it.
so let 'em play on new years day. lol!
tennessee 24, wisconsin 17.
cotton. dallas. missouri vs. arkansas.
this is an absolutely fantastic game. these teams don't like each other at all, the game is in dallas and should be close to sold out, so it should be a fantastic atmosphere. both offenses are explosive. look for chase daniel to exploit the razorbacks' porous defense much more effectively than lsu did. and look for arkansas to run wild.
in a shootout...
missouri 45, arkansas 41.
gator. jacksonville. texas tech vs. virginia.
texas tech really messes coaches up in bowl games.
texas tech 38, virginia 21.
capital one. orlando. michigan vs. florida.
it's trendy to write michigan off for this one, but i think it might be useful to consider the following things: one is that michigan is still a proud team. another is that they are looking for a statement win. and they are defending their conference in this one. never underestimate that. they will be motivated.
and i think that's enough to make this one interesting.
michigan 35, florida 27.
rose bowl. la. usc vs. illinois.
take usc, but this one will be closer than you think.
usc 38, illinois 27.
fiesta. glendale. wvu vs. oklahoma.
i like oklahoma in this one by a bunch of points.
oklahoma 41, wvu 17.
orange. miami. va. tech vs. kansas.
virginia tech looks pretty good right now. kansas can score, but i don't think it will be enough.
vt 31, kansas 20.
international. toronto. rutgers vs. ball state.
lol!
rutgers 38, ball state 7.
gmac. mobile. bowling green vs. tulsa.
the mac's getting shut out in bowls this year.
tulsa 45, bowling green 28.
sugar. new orleans. georgia vs. hawaii.
i think georgia has enough defense in this one.
georgia 41, hawaii 21.
bcs. new orleans. osu vs. lsu.
the big ten will show heart in bowl games this year. they have to. for the sanctity of their conference, they must.
and i believe in tressel to an extent, but the facts are this:
1) this is a home game for lsu.
2) lsu has more offensive talent.
3) todd beckman is starting, as is matt flynn. so low-scoring is possible.
lsu 24, osu 14.
alamo bowl. san antonio. penn state vs. texas a & m.
penn state thoroughly confuses me as a football team. my gut tells me that they should be able to stop texas a & m's running game and that they should be able to score some points and win this one. but i just don't know what to say about these guys.
take paterno and run?
penn state 24, texas a & m 13.
independence bowl. shreveport. alabama vs. colorado.
both teams have had flashes of brilliance this year.
that's the only nice thing i can say about this game, so i'll stop here.
colorado 31, alabama 23.
armed forces. fort worth. cal vs. air force.
an interesting thing happened along the way to cal's season of brilliance. their qb got hurt, and they just couldn't stop the losing. and so in some sense, i think that this game is completely out of air force's hands, because if cal shows up, this game will be a whitewashing. too much speed, experience, talent, etc.
will cal show up?
cal 38, air force 17.
humanitarian. boise. georgia tech vs. fresno state.
what's ridiculous is that georgia tech has actually played in this game before, namely in 2004, when they obliterated tulsa. since that game, i've been particularly wary of taking wac teams in any game, because i have a tendency to believe that they're not very good.
but nonetheless, i suspect that fresno state will win this game.
fresno state 31, ga. tech 28.
sun bowl. el paso. south florida vs. oregon.
if you had announced this as a bowl matchup a month ago, people might have tabbed this one for the fiesta bowl.
dennis dixon's injury and south florida's defense both let us down. and the football gods were merciless by assigning these two teams to el paso, a place where no fan should have to go for football. oregon hasn't won since dixon's injury, and they wont beat usf either.
usf 27, oregon 10.
music city. nashville. uk vs. fsu.
if florida state is missing 25 players, they shouldn't be able to beat kentucky. too much andre woodson in this one.
uk 35, fsu 17.
insight. tempe. indiana vs. oklahoma state.
neither one of these teams deserves to be in a bowl, particularly indiana, a team that ducked both michigan and ohio state in their big ten schedule. oklahoma state has enough offense to score some points in this one, and i think they'll win this one rather handily.
ok state 41, iu 21.
chick-fil-a peach. atlanta. clemson vs. auburn.
the obvious pick in this one is clemson, a team that sort of peaked toward the end of the season, with an explosive qb and talented running back. so it's instructive to note that auburn shut down two incredibly explosive offenses in arkansas and florida.
this one should be close.
auburn 17, clemson 13.
outback. tampa. wisconsin vs. tennessee.
wisconsin hasn't done anything meaningful all year except for upsetting michigan. tennessee is highly volatile, and rode a win over georgia way further than they should have been allowed to ride it.
so let 'em play on new years day. lol!
tennessee 24, wisconsin 17.
cotton. dallas. missouri vs. arkansas.
this is an absolutely fantastic game. these teams don't like each other at all, the game is in dallas and should be close to sold out, so it should be a fantastic atmosphere. both offenses are explosive. look for chase daniel to exploit the razorbacks' porous defense much more effectively than lsu did. and look for arkansas to run wild.
in a shootout...
missouri 45, arkansas 41.
gator. jacksonville. texas tech vs. virginia.
texas tech really messes coaches up in bowl games.
texas tech 38, virginia 21.
capital one. orlando. michigan vs. florida.
it's trendy to write michigan off for this one, but i think it might be useful to consider the following things: one is that michigan is still a proud team. another is that they are looking for a statement win. and they are defending their conference in this one. never underestimate that. they will be motivated.
and i think that's enough to make this one interesting.
michigan 35, florida 27.
rose bowl. la. usc vs. illinois.
take usc, but this one will be closer than you think.
usc 38, illinois 27.
fiesta. glendale. wvu vs. oklahoma.
i like oklahoma in this one by a bunch of points.
oklahoma 41, wvu 17.
orange. miami. va. tech vs. kansas.
virginia tech looks pretty good right now. kansas can score, but i don't think it will be enough.
vt 31, kansas 20.
international. toronto. rutgers vs. ball state.
lol!
rutgers 38, ball state 7.
gmac. mobile. bowling green vs. tulsa.
the mac's getting shut out in bowls this year.
tulsa 45, bowling green 28.
sugar. new orleans. georgia vs. hawaii.
i think georgia has enough defense in this one.
georgia 41, hawaii 21.
bcs. new orleans. osu vs. lsu.
the big ten will show heart in bowl games this year. they have to. for the sanctity of their conference, they must.
and i believe in tressel to an extent, but the facts are this:
1) this is a home game for lsu.
2) lsu has more offensive talent.
3) todd beckman is starting, as is matt flynn. so low-scoring is possible.
lsu 24, osu 14.
Labels: q
posted by mike at 8:04 PM
7 Comments:
Disagreements/Side Comments:
Penn St./Texas A&M: Paterno vs. the remnants of Dennis Franchione's staff... hmm...
Alabama/Colorado: Ugh... can we pick both to lose. I picked 'Bama because it's basically a home game for a team with a crazy following, but my confidence level for the game was the lowest of all 32.
Cal/Air Force: I agree with everything you've said, but I've given up on Cal showing up - they failed to do so the last 8 weeks of the season. Why start now? I picked Air Force.
Georgia Tech/Fresno St.: I decided to follow the logic you put forth and Pick Georgia Tech. I tend not go with teams who just fired a coach, but also tend not go with the WAC. Let's just hope Johnson doesn't try to install the triple option for a bowl game...
Tennessee/Wisconsin: I picked Tennessee as well before I saw that 5 players were academically ineligible for this game for Tenn. Not as bad as the Seminoles, but one or two were starters. I don't think I'd change the pick, but I'd bump the confidence level down a few spots on the ESPN Bowl Pick 'Em if I could.
Missouri/Arkansas: I'm putting the over/under on total yards for Darren McFadden total yards at 300. I'm going against my coaching change rule here, but the Wild Hog offense does not seem that difficult to coach or run. I'm going with Arkansas.
Virginia/Texas Tech: Texas Tech always seems like smoke and mirrors to me, but they did be a deer in the headlights Oklahoma team. I went with Virginia, but a low confidence rating.
Michigan/Florida: wtf? Florida... (Didn't we have this discussion about how much the Big 10 sucked earlier...)
So I disagreed with you on 6 games. Let's hope you were bad at this the 2nd time around.
some comments:
I would have picked Alabama had they not lost in the same bowl last year.
I stand by Fresno, I think they're the best team.
I think Wisconsin sucks... I don't think the same about Michigan.
I also think that Virginia sucks.
Perhaps I should have paid more attention... Fresno seems legit.
I dispute the Sucktitude of Virginia - I'm surprised at how much DAP you've giving the Big 12 in these bowl games after railing against them all year.
And you've dropped some impeccable logic - Wisconsin sucks, they beat Michigan, ergo Michigan must not suck. Logic has apparently broken your heart friend. I know Hart and Henne have been banged up, but that team has some problems... Their defense is questionable. They match up pretty terribly against Florida. Unless Tebow hurts himself (always an eminent possibility), Michigan is going down hard.
dude, i'm clearly not picking michigan based on logic. i'm picking them based on personal feelings and beliefs. i also kinda think that florida's defense really sucks.
plus, i always like to go on a limb for one bowl game. i figure i'll make my stand with this one.
(in other words, i'm saying that you're right, but you need to let me have this one.)
virginia has won a lot of games this year by very low margins, and i just don't think their offense can compete at a high enough level to win this game. their defense gives up points (to everybody but miami) and they'll give up more to tx. tech.
and i have been fair with the big 12 in bowl games. i didn't take kansas, texas, or texas a & m. but can you honestly expect me to take indiana over anyone? and isn't texas tech a nightmare matchup for a team that has trouble scoring, like virginia? missouri is a top ten team; arkansas is wildly inconsistent. even if i believe that the same arkansas team that played lsu shows up (which i don't necessarily believe at all), i still have to think that missouri's offense has an opportunity to be very effective.
we both think alabama/colorado is a pick 'em. i took colorado because i have faith in their ability to score points.
and west virginia is just not as talented as oklahoma, right?
I can't argue with your Tech/Virginia logic. But if I can just imagine Lou Holtz looking at those tight scores and saying, "Virginia is a team that knows how to win ball games. Once or twice may be luck, but do it enough and it means you know how to come through in the clutch." I don't buy that... I'll even admit that I originally thought it was a bad matchup for Virginia and was about to pick Tech... but my gut said go Cavs!
Look, I didn't pick Indiana either, but I think that game against Ok St. is a pick 'em. They have a really athletic QB in the Randel El mold, and maybe they'll decide to go out and win for Coach Hoeppner. I will almost certainly root for Indiana unless my bowl picks are still perfect by the time of the game.
I sort of took the same logic with my Michigan pick; I'm rooting against Tim Tebow explicitly.
So we each have a couple teams that we picked arbitrarily. I think you're right; I may have overrated Oklahoma State. I remember their defense being pretty awful from the Kansas game, and I suspect that they will give up some points.
Just stopping by to say great call on the Michigan-Florida game.
Also wanted to say that I am glad that Georgia exposed Hawaii and Colt Brennan today. Man, I really hate Hawaii.
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