exposing the frauds (part one)

i will say this for the big east: it exposes the frauds more quickly than one can imagine.

take notre dame. yes, harangody's set of skills makes him a likable player. but our understanding of notre dame came from a very small sample of games last year, a sample in which teams did not understand the strategies necessary to defeat the irish.

they've learned.

louisville first showed it in the second half of their game: run notre dame into the ground. frustrate and swarm mcalarney, and maybe harangody will commit fouls. it's enough.

it has been the strategy ever since. first, the 'cuse took the same strategy and ran with it, as did uconn. tonight, marquette did the same thing. what must be discouraging for notre dame is this: they have a real potential for 14 losses, which i would think would be enough to discard them from the ncaa's. consider the remainder of their schedule: it's likely that they won't be able to win at pittsburgh, a team with the necessary depth to execute the same strategy. uconn again is a similar nightmare, as it is on the road. going on the road to play wvu and ucla is tricky; one of those games is almost a must win. wvu is deeper and ucla may be more skilled, although they are also struggling. that game now has tournament bid implications, which is scary to think about for both teams.

we're at 11 losses if they lose all those games. add one more, because they won't win the big east tournament. that is guaranteed. put them at 12. add one more, because louisville comes to play at south bend, as does nova, and they will probably lose one of those.

and that means notre dame has to win all the other games to stay at 13 losses. this "fact" assumes that:

1) notre dame will beat louisville or villanova at home (50% chance)
2) notre dame will win all the other games they're "supposed to." (25% chance).

notre dame is in a lot of trouble. their resume consists of a win against texas and a win against georgetown. ohio state was a game they needed to win, and st. john's constitutes a bad loss. notre dame = stealth bubble team.

Commentary on Louisville Basketball, courtesy of John Lorenz.

Louisville is a national title contender.

I admit, for much of the first part they seemed lost. There was a definite lack of leadership and underwhelming was the word du jour. However, having gotten a few (sometimes lucky) wins under their belt, I can see them winning the Big East and getting a one seed. Here's why they belong in the conversation.

They have a big three.

Big three's seem to be en vogue these days. Boston brought the trend back last year, hearkening back to a time when it took at least three Hall of Fame caliber players to win a championship. Well, in college, it takes three NBA quality players to win a championship.

Earl Clark – Everyone knows about Earl Clark already. He was a borderline lottery pick last year and most people would argue he hasn't helped his draft stock a whole lot this year. It's hard to argue – the guy seemed to have maturity issues early in the year. People are willing to take a risk on a Freshman with “maturity issues” but a junior... (In his defense, we're not talking Zach Randolph level issues hear, just a stretch of laconic play when things didn't seem to go his way.) However, during their win streak, Earl has been playing with a certain swagger. His shooting's not great, but he has a good looking shot, he's 6' 9”, Jay Bilas loves his length as well as his spurtability, and he can put the ball on the floor and drive to the rim, sort of. He's a bit raw, but he's more polished than he has been. His passing is probably the most improved part of his game. Put him on a team with an established center and Earl has learned to play a nice high low game. But the most impressive thing about him in my opinion is his rebounding. I watched the Pitt game. Pitt is a rebounding team. I know their bigs got in foul trouble, but the best rebounder I saw in that game was Earl Clark. He can elevate. He doesn't have a wide frame but he can box out. It's probably safe to call Kevin Durant a great pro by now, but the thing that has killed me about him so far was the way PJ Carlesimo took a prolific rebounder and turned him into a shooting guard. He should be getting Dirk level rebounding numbers. I know it's his second year and he's still improving and he's on a bad team and blah blah blah. I just want a double-double from him every now and again. But PJ's gone and he's his potential is being unleashed. Earl is not Kevin Durant. Maybe a poor man's Durant? But he will rebound. I'd really like to see him go against Hansborough. Do I think Hansborough will be exposed against a comparable player? Maybe... maybe not. I just want to see it. I just want to see Earl dunk on Hansborough. Just once.

Terrence Williams – He was borderline draft pick last year. But I present to you his numbers from the last 6 games:

16.7 ppg on 54% fg, 42% 3pt, and 74% ft
10.2 rpg
4.17 apg
2.5 spg

He's basically the college version of Andrei Kirilenko, minus the blocked shots. His assist to turn over ratio over that span (1.56) is down because his assists are down recently as he's been looking to score more – and as you can see from the numbers before he's been efficient about it. But for the season (2.39) he's greatly improved. His supposedly streaky shot has all of a sudden become reliable. Maybe 6 games is still short enough for it to be called a streak. Regardless, he's the reason U of L is undefeated in the Big East right now. That's right – those numbers are against their toughest competition of the season. And he had a hesitation move capped off by a finger roll against Pitt that made me positively giddy. If you saw it, you know the play I'm talking about. He's an athletic freak who could conceivably play three, maybe four spots that make GM's salivate (he's got the skill set to play the one, and I think he could play the four if a team decided to go small). Terrence Williams has been playing like a first round pick. Look at that – a senior works his way into the draft.

Samardo Samuels – He has not been playing like a first round pick, despite being named the best high school player last year. Once upon a time, that meant he would have been a first round pick. He'll come back for at least one more season unless all of a sudden he decides he can put up 20 and 10 a night and show everyone what potential can amount to when you're not Derrick Caracter. Samardo, by all accounts, is very coachable and should improve through the end of this season and into the next. I've been underwhelmed by Samardo, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Plus I like the idea of him coming back next year and becoming a force of nature before going pro.

So there you are, U of L's big three, which seemed sloppy and lethargic earlier in the season (although I kind of think Samardo just looks that way by nature), are coming on. Anyone can be the difference in any given game. The scary proposition is that all three haven't really clicked at the same time yet. If that were to happen, can U of L win the Big East? Could they beat the big three of the ACC? Hopefully we'll get a chance to see.

The other scary thing is the numbers for some of the supporting cast is down. Jerry Smith, who hopefully will flourish as a scorer next year after Clark and Williams go, has seen his numbers go down taking way fewer shots this year. Sosa seems to be playing better after Pitino gave him his yearly kick in the butt. Even Knowles has become a reliable 3 PT shooter. They lack scoring depth at the five, but Jennings seems to be more than solid defensively. Of course, I've focused too much on the offensive numbers when defense has been carrying them through. Everyone I've mentioned (except maybe Sosa) gets after it defensively.

As I've said, the one thing they seemed to have missed this year is the leadership of someone like Padgett. It was painfully obvious early on. But the last 6 games have revealed the truth... and it shall set you free, my friend.

thought of the day.

did b.c.'s jeff jagodzinski just walk out with three million and his reputation as a good coach intact?

maybe j.j. was like "wait, you're going to release me from my obligation to coach this team and give me three free years to do whatever i want, including picking up another job? and you're going to pay me for it?"

that, my friends, is playing a dominant strategy.