exposing the frauds (part one)
i will say this for the big east: it exposes the frauds more quickly than one can imagine.
take notre dame. yes, harangody's set of skills makes him a likable player. but our understanding of notre dame came from a very small sample of games last year, a sample in which teams did not understand the strategies necessary to defeat the irish.
they've learned.
louisville first showed it in the second half of their game: run notre dame into the ground. frustrate and swarm mcalarney, and maybe harangody will commit fouls. it's enough.
it has been the strategy ever since. first, the 'cuse took the same strategy and ran with it, as did uconn. tonight, marquette did the same thing. what must be discouraging for notre dame is this: they have a real potential for 14 losses, which i would think would be enough to discard them from the ncaa's. consider the remainder of their schedule: it's likely that they won't be able to win at pittsburgh, a team with the necessary depth to execute the same strategy. uconn again is a similar nightmare, as it is on the road. going on the road to play wvu and ucla is tricky; one of those games is almost a must win. wvu is deeper and ucla may be more skilled, although they are also struggling. that game now has tournament bid implications, which is scary to think about for both teams.
we're at 11 losses if they lose all those games. add one more, because they won't win the big east tournament. that is guaranteed. put them at 12. add one more, because louisville comes to play at south bend, as does nova, and they will probably lose one of those.
and that means notre dame has to win all the other games to stay at 13 losses. this "fact" assumes that:
1) notre dame will beat louisville or villanova at home (50% chance)
2) notre dame will win all the other games they're "supposed to." (25% chance).
notre dame is in a lot of trouble. their resume consists of a win against texas and a win against georgetown. ohio state was a game they needed to win, and st. john's constitutes a bad loss. notre dame = stealth bubble team.
take notre dame. yes, harangody's set of skills makes him a likable player. but our understanding of notre dame came from a very small sample of games last year, a sample in which teams did not understand the strategies necessary to defeat the irish.
they've learned.
louisville first showed it in the second half of their game: run notre dame into the ground. frustrate and swarm mcalarney, and maybe harangody will commit fouls. it's enough.
it has been the strategy ever since. first, the 'cuse took the same strategy and ran with it, as did uconn. tonight, marquette did the same thing. what must be discouraging for notre dame is this: they have a real potential for 14 losses, which i would think would be enough to discard them from the ncaa's. consider the remainder of their schedule: it's likely that they won't be able to win at pittsburgh, a team with the necessary depth to execute the same strategy. uconn again is a similar nightmare, as it is on the road. going on the road to play wvu and ucla is tricky; one of those games is almost a must win. wvu is deeper and ucla may be more skilled, although they are also struggling. that game now has tournament bid implications, which is scary to think about for both teams.
we're at 11 losses if they lose all those games. add one more, because they won't win the big east tournament. that is guaranteed. put them at 12. add one more, because louisville comes to play at south bend, as does nova, and they will probably lose one of those.
and that means notre dame has to win all the other games to stay at 13 losses. this "fact" assumes that:
1) notre dame will beat louisville or villanova at home (50% chance)
2) notre dame will win all the other games they're "supposed to." (25% chance).
notre dame is in a lot of trouble. their resume consists of a win against texas and a win against georgetown. ohio state was a game they needed to win, and st. john's constitutes a bad loss. notre dame = stealth bubble team.
posted by mike at 6:04 PM
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