A Puncher's Chance

The term 'puncher's chance' is used to refer to a situation where someone who is clearly outskilled or outclassed by an opponent can nonetheless defeat the opponent because of one big, ridiculous, high-variability weapon that they possess.

Perhaps the term should be used more in golf. If John Daly wins his third (yes, it will be three, compared to the total number of majors won by Colin Montgomerie, Lee Westwood, Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Sergio Garcia, Kenny Perry, Steve Stricker..., well, you get the idea...) major, it will be because of this term- the 'puncher's chance.'

John Daly is not nearly as skilled as the mentioned players. In any given regular tournament, the odds of him making it to the top of the tournament compared to these other players is small. It wasn't always that way- Daly actually is quite a bit more accomplished than he gets credit for- he also finished third in a Masters once, and has won a half-dozen or so meaningful tournaments around the world- but he can't be counted on week-to-week, and his performance is so erratic that it can't really be characterized or analyzed in a meaningful way.

But Daly has two weapons that others don't have. Both weapons are cruel in their own way.

Daly has an legendary, borderline prodigious drive. When Daly is able to successfully drive the ball, he changes the game in a way that the other players cannot. He simply hits harder- hard enough to knock a player, or a course, down. Part of Daly's first win at St. Andrews was simply that he disregarded all common strategy because he could the ball with enough force to end up in parts of the course that other players couldn't get to, much as they would want to. It's fifteen years later- Daly has lost weight, his self-respect, his money, probably his fame- but not this drive. It is still cruel, unrelenting. It still can tame a course in the way that only Woods can, and it still puts him on the first page of leaderboards.

But Daly also has a rather blatant disregard for the "moment." Daly doesn't characterize himself is a two-time major winner; rather, he characterizes himself as fun-loving. He loves his alma mater, and golf is his meal ticket. Because golf is a meal ticket, and not a validation device, Daly has, at times, a mental edge over his competitors. If Daly melts down at the end of a tournament, it's an effort thing- it's not a nerves/composure thing. Daly will wake up and smoke a cigarette the next day, and life will go on. How's Lee Westwood feeling after blowing his major chances?

Facing Daly is an unnerving position for his competitors to be put into. At times, facing Daly is, in a weird way, like facing a crazy person. You know that you're in a place where you have little control over the situation- who can 'put pressure' on John Daly? The PGA Tour can't. Tiger Woods can't. Nobody can. You just have to hope that he doesn't land a punch.

comments on the ncaa tournament

south:

look, i don't think the south is as bad as the gut reactions given to its composition. baylor is a fairly strong three seed among the three seeds. pitt isn't much better than baylor, new mexico isn't proven, and georgetown is a good team that got hot, but had some bad stretches. i don't see baylor as a weakness here. richmond is underseeded, and could have easily been put in the top half of duke's draw. the bottom half of this draw is deceptively strong.

it's true that villanova is a fairly weak two seed right now, but they were strong throughout the majority of this season and will be an extremely tough out should they win a few games. notre dame is hot right now, and old dominion isn't a team anyone wants to play. purdue is a weak #4 without hummel, but a & m, cal, and louisville (along with, for that matter, siena and utah state) make duke's side of the bracket tricky.

while this bracket may look a little soft at the top, seeds #5-11 are flat out tough teams to eliminate. i think the south has very good depth in the middle, and that we'll see this bracket acquit itself nicely as the tournament progresses.

sweet 16: duke, a & m, nova (could easily take richmond here), and baylor.

west

people are up in arms about the south when they should be up in arms about the strength of the west. vanderbilt is overseeded (in my view). here's a team that got way too much credit for a sweep of an opponent. people complain about louisville's profile for sweeping syracuse- what about vandy's for sweeping tennessee? out-of-conference results are mixed; wins over st. mary's and mizzou are complemented by losses to illinois, cincy, and wku, all who are not in the field. they performed well in conference, but couldn't beat kentucky, and lost to both georgia and south carolina. butler should have been the four here. gonzaga and florida state are both sort of boring teams; minnesota was a last spot, and so the real competition for the 'cuse comes from pitt and kansas state. both are good teams, but they're definitely not amazing, and they're both only really fringe title contenders. kansas state has a real chance at going down to byu, as does pitt to xavier in the second round.

sweet 16: byu, pitt, 'cuse, butler

midwest

this is a nasty bracket. ohio state's side is just miserable, and the georgetown/tennessee potential showdown in the second round is tantalizing- provided tennessee gets past a red-hot sdsu team. georgia tech is going to be a tough out for any team at this point, and oklahoma state took down kansas. kansas, meanwhile, should be able to take out unlv or northern iowa, but would have a potentially difficult matchup with michigan state in the sweet 16. either way, this bracket is misery.

an interesting seeding note should be the seeding of new mexico state as a 12. this has mismatch written all over it and seems really curious to me. i like michigan state here, although maryland may be able to get through a few rounds on the disrespect card.

sweet 16: ohio state, kansas, tennessee, and michigan state.

east:

kentucky gets the misery of being in a bracket with west virginia and temple, two teams you never really want to play. i think temple beats cornell- if they don't, wisconsin certainly will, and i think i don't want to watch wisconsin play. new mexico is a bit of a wild card: they could be explosive enough to cause any team fits, or they could lose to marquette in the second round, who may not even get past washington.

kentucky doesn't want to play texas in the second round. that's a nightmare matchup- pittman is a beast inside, and there are plenty of guards to throw at the young cats. that being said, john wall should be able to do a lot of damage- opposing point guards have had their way for most of the year. west virginia could easily have problems with a team like clemson, which will likely be just as physical as the mountaineers.

sweet 16: uk, wvu, marquette, temple

in addition, i'd like to rate the 13-16 i think are POSSIBLE (not necessarily probable).

0-0.5%: lehigh, etsu, playin, ucsb, robert morris.

thanks for coming, i guess. not liking the chances.

0.5%-1.5% vermont over syracuse, morgan state over wvu.

these are at least possible, if wildly improbable. syracuse will likely put a hurting on vermont for past sins, but vermont is pretty underseeded compared to, say, houston. morgan state is a decent team.

1.5%-3% north texas over kansas state, ohio over georgetown.

ohio has a chance since the mac is reasonably competitive. north texas has a chance because k-state will be nervous.

3%-5% oakland over pitt, houston over maryland, montana over new mexico.

both pitt and maryland can look shaky at times, although houston isn't likely to be able to take advantage of maryland. montana is a good team, but new mexico will likely blow them out.

5-10% sam houston over baylor, murray over vandy.

both of these games are faux-rivalry games, so the lower seeds have added incentive to play hard. they're also likely run into each other in high school. baylor has a high seed to play up to, and murray state seems due to win one of these types of games.

10%+ siena over purdue, wofford over wisconsin.

wofford might get slowed to death, but wisconsin has a hard time putting teams away. siena is nearly a coin flip against purdue at this point.

how to expand the tournament to 96 teams.

i wouldn't expand the tournament, but if it were to happen, here's how i think it should happen:

1. every conference champion is an auto-bid.
corollary: every conference champion is guaranteed a top-16 seed if they win their conference tournament.
2. every conference tournament champion is an auto-bid.
3. every top-40 rpi team is an auto-bid.

What would that look like this year?

Here are the "locks" from the Top-40 RPI:

Kansas, Duke, Syracuse, Kentucky, Kansas State, Villanova, West Virginia, New Mexico, Pitt, Baylor, Vandy, Texas A & M, Purdue, Georgetown, Temple, Tennessee, Butler, Wisconsin, Xavier, Maryland, BYU, California, Northern Iowa, Clemson, Texas, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Richmond, Ohio State, Rhode Island, Utah State, Missouri, SDSU, Wake, Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Old Dominion, Louisville, Florida State, and Siena.

Note that, in all likelihood, there is a lot of overlap between 2 and 3.

In addition, the non-RPI top-40 conference champs: Stony Brook (America East), Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun), Weber State (Big Sky), Coastal Carolina (Big South), UCSB (Big West), UTEP (C-USA), Cornell (Ivy), Kent State (MAC), Morgan State (MEAC), Quinnipiac (Northeast), MURRAY STATE (OVC), Lehigh (Patriot), WOFFORD (Southern), Sam Houston (Southland), Oakland (Summit), Jackson State (SWAC) Troy (Sun Belt).

We're up to 57 teams. For argument's sake, I'll assume some crazy stuff so the following teams win:

WCC: ST. MARY'S won already
WAC: Nevada
Sun Belt: MTSU
Summit: Oral Roberts
SWAC: not Jackson State
Southland: SFA
Patriot: Lafayette
Northeast: Robert Morris
MEAC: Delaware State
MAC: Akron
Horizon: Wright State
CUSA: Tulsa
Big West: Pacific
Big South: WINTHROP won already
Big Sky: Montana
Atlantic Sun: ETSU won already
America East: Maine

This still leaves us with 22 at-large births in a worst-case scenario format.

Some notes:

From the A-10, 4 teams were top-40 RPI and I did assume that one of those teams won.
Pac-10 is really hurt in this scenario as I assumed Cal won.

Here are my 22 at-large:

ACC: Virginia Tech (6 RPI top-40 already included)
Big East: Notre Dame, Seton Hall, South Florida, and Marquette (5 RPI top-40)
Big 12: no more (7 RPI top-40)
Big 10: Minnesota and Illinois (4 RPI top-40)
Pac 10: Arizona State and Washington
SEC: Mississippi, Mississippi State, Florida (3 included already)
C-USA: Memphis, UAB, Marshall
A-10: Dayton, St. Louis, Charlotte (4 RPI top-40 already included)
Colonial: William and Mary, Northeastern
MVC: Wichita State
WCC: Portland

The following teams are still excluded: Cincinnati, UConn, Wright State, Harvard, Fairfield, Iona, Illinois State, Arizona, IUPUI, Vermont, VCU, Charleston.

A couple of points:

One is that some conferences have too many births. Many conferences would stand to get two births, and it could be argued (albeit somewhat unconvincingly) that conference champions would lay over and die to get another team in their conference in. There are two problems with this: one, it definitely doesn't happen in the larger conferences. Look at the history of the ACC tournament- lock teams still knock out their counterparts. It only could happen in the small ones. To eliminate this problem, one could easily incentivize the conference tournament somewhat, possibly by guaranteeing a top-16 seed to a conference champion who wins, ensuring that the lower-conference teams have a relatively better chance to win their first round game.

Another is that this model assumes straight-forward behavior in all the major conference tournaments this year. The SEC is a notorious crapshoot, and the Pac-10 appears to be similar this year. I would like to claim that I get around this assumption somewhat by assuming that every small conference (as of today) has a surprise champion and takes two bids. This is wildly unrealistic, and it is likely that even more at-large bids would open up.

The main advantage I see with this model is that, while it does not have the 96 best teams (or even close), it does suitably incentivize regular-season play. Marginal teams like Cincinnati, UConn, Virginia, or Arizona are not rewarded for very poor showings because of the potential of multiple slots being taken up by less-qualified teams. If rule 1 were eliminated, probably 10 conference champions would not be selected by the tournament committee, and instead we would see a handful of teams from big conferences with poor records and no real profile. The 22 teams that were selected already contain stretches such as Charlotte, Marshall, Minnesota, and Seton Hall: teams with little on their resume to discuss.

I think the real point of this exercise is to show how yucky a 96-team tournament could be. I don't know if a tournament would really be enhanced by taking out Morgan State *should they not win their conference tournament* and putting in a Cincinnati, since both teams are not likely to make a sweet 16. Most bubble teams do not make big runs in the tournament.

the dawn of everything.

i'm more than a little surprised that the memphis grizzlies don't have your undivided attention, world.

they are ruthless mercenaries, and no team is safe.

this team may actually succeed in outscoring every team in the nba. for the grizzlies, nothing is sacred.

this team is golden state, actualized and better. rudy gay is a merciless scorer. he does not care, he just wants to dunk on your face. zach randolph NEVER cared. the grizzlies picked him up because, well, they were sick and tired of incompetence at the power forward position and somebody, deep within the war rooms, decided that they were going to become the phoenix suns and that they had better get people who were willing to play ball. randolph was willing, primarily because he had no other choice.

o.j. mayo certainly doesn't care. he's been marginalized and EXPLOITED since he was 12. he just wants his paycheck and to tear the hearts out of those who have eaten at him; he wants to avenge the racist referees of west virginia, the NCAA- a group of bloodthirsty, profit-seeking scam artists, and those who doubt his intellect. marc gasol is tired, sick and tired of hearing that the pau trade was a salary dump. he and his 15-10 are apparently not good enough for humanity. mike conley is an unceremonious bust. OH WAIT...

the memphis grizzlies don't care about you. they hate you, and they hate me.

the fact that they bother to do it together is bad news for the nba. you're excited about the thunder. give me the griz.

tournament analysis

3:52 PM me: hi, i will be back in 15 minutes

i'm letting you know that i'm running a little bit late

John: sure

16 minutes

4:09 PM me: hey

John: 'sup? you ready to get going?

me: yes

John: ok... should we just dive into picking a bracket?

4:10 PM me: yeah. let's start with the east

John: Pitt/E Tenn St?

me: pittsburgh, by some nasty margin

John: nasty... i like that

me: although the atlantic sun is far and away the most mysterious conference around

4:11 PM John: Mystery! Even better!

Okla St./Tennessee

?

I've picked like 6 online brackets so far, and have Ok. St. in every one

me: i like tennessee. i think this is the game of games for the first round

definitely, you have two teams that can light it up

4:12 PM ok state?

John: i think this is a great game too, but Tennessee had to fight through that gruelling SEC schedule (couch)

I think OSU is the hotter team and Travis Ford can outcoach Bruce Pearl

4:13 PM me: i'll give you that the sec sucks, but i think that tennessee is so talented that if they piece it together, they're as dangerous as anyone in the tournament

both of these teams have a chance to beat pitt, right?

4:14 PM John: is it relevant who wins this game? Do we give either one a legit shot against Pitt?

me: i definitely think tennessee can beat pitt

John: This is going to take forever if we don't move on - Tennessee on talent it is

me: look, chism and tyler smith on the inside are at least capable on their best days of handling blair

John: they're also capable of losing to UK twice

SNAP!

take that UK

4:15 PM FSU/Wisconsin

me: i will make my uk comment later

fsu

John: I got FSU as being one of the most undervalued teams in the country

me: wisconsin isn't that good

John: a possible final 4 sleeper if you ask me

me: i agree

John: Xavier/Portland State?

4:16 PM me: give me xavier

John: X it is

UCLA/VCU

me: portland state could win this game, but i think that it's not a trap game, which is generally how these upsets occur

i agonized over ucla/vcu

you have to go first

4:17 PM John: i honestly have no information for this game - I saw Michigan beat UCLA - not a great team, but I think the tendancy is to pick an upset where a team has done that before, when in fact that is probably the exception and not the rule

me: how much of an upset is this game?

John: people remember VCU from 2 years ago and want to get on that train again this year, but I don't see it happening

me: i think it is minor. that said, i chose ucla myself

4:18 PM John: UCLA it is

me: here, i'll say it. american can beat nova

absolutely

John: Nova/American? Discussion needed?

me: they gave tennessee a scare last year and nova is WAY overseeded

John: woah... a shocker!

me: i would give nova a 5 seed

John: i don't think nova is overseeded, but i do think they can be exposed

me: there is no way wake is a 4 and nova is a 3

4:19 PM no way

the reason this is true is because nova's not a 6 and the three big east teams as 1 seeds messed up the seeding

so they needed nova and the cuse to be on the other side of the bracket

John: i see

me: alright, i will stop ranting

i'll take nova

4:20 PM but i want on record my displeasure and my upset suspicions

John: ok... rule for doing this - each of us gets to play 2 upset override chips for the 1st round where we can overrule the other, otherwise we will pick chalk the whole way

me: ok

John: i pick nova, but if you think american has a shot, play the chip...

me: i will save my chip for my upset pick

John: ok

4:21 PM Texas/Minn

me: but i reserve the right to lose my cool in the middle and berate nova some more

John: that's fine

me: texas

John: i'm down on texas sir

me: are you taking minnesota?

John: I think tubby can coach Rick Barnes pants off

he just can't recruit as well

me: you're right, it's an embarrassment that texas is a 7 seed

rick barnes is a joke

4:22 PM if you had barnes, motta, and tim floyd, you would have a 6 seed

bam!

John: the big 10 is a mess though

me: it is

duke over binghamton

though binghamton is better as a 15 seed that it will get credit for

John: do i have to use a chip to move 'Sota through, or is that not a big enough upset?

4:23 PM me: no

i'll give you minnesota

i know how much rick barnes sucks at coaching

John: East - 2nd round

Pitt/Tenn

?

me: HE COULDN'T GET DURANT OUT OF ROUND 2

i guess pitt

John: very true about durant

me: even if tennessee plays its best it will be a coin flip

4:24 PM John: FSU/X

In a shocker, I don't see X getting far in this tournament

4 seed is a reach for them

me: pick against xavier

John: done

me: go against your moral imperatives

John: UCLA/ Nova?

me: i like xavier in the perverse "this seed is getting no respect" sort of way

UCLA over nova

without question

4:25 PM darren collison is an evolved scottie reynolds

John: I'll do it... I won't like it but I'll do it

me: i guess jay wright can win a game by himself

he did get nova in the sweet 16 last year

John: On a side note - the best I ever did in a pool was by picking allegiance to a conference and sticking with it (big 10, '99)

4:26 PM It bit me in the end, but it was a wild ride

me: i like the big east this year, just not nova

John: alright

me: we can agree to take duke, right?

John: yes

done

me: pitt/fsu?

John: Pitt/FSU

me: i like pitt, but they cannot shoot

John: I've filled out 5 brackets, and I do have FSU making it to the final four in one

4:27 PM me: when is jamie dixon going to recruit someone who can shoot at that place?

John: I wouldn't say they can't shoot - they're streaky

me: more streaky than louisville i think

John: Sam Young is legit - Levance Fields reminds me a bit of Mateen Cleeves

me: mateen cleaves was way better though

John: ...speaking of Big 10 of 1999

4:28 PM me: levance fields should thank his stars that he doesn't have to see any more of kemba walker

that guy could eat his lunch if they played each other for 40 minutes

John: You can definitely, hurt him with an athletic team - not the most in shape guy

4:29 PM me: true

duke/ucla?

John: You definitely don't see pitt as a title contender, do you?

me: i think they are a contender

sam young and blair are very good

John: i have duke over UCLA all the way

me: it's just winning six games with their shooting is going to be really hard

i do as well

John: I can't in good conscience put UCLA in the elite eight

me: no, i can't either

they don't have the right tools to match with duke

4:30 PM John: Anyway, Pitt/FSU? A pick there?

me: i like pitt

John: done

me: but feel free to override me

i don't know much about fsu

John: I like FSU, but I don't think they are a title contender

4:31 PM me: pitt/duke

John: i think Pitt is... I don't want to screw a bracket by picking an upset over a title contender

big east/acc - we could be seeing a lot of that this tournament

4:32 PM I hate duke, but at least they are not playing paulus anymore

a matchup of very different styles - duke can't match up against blair, but pitt can't run with duke

me: i like greg paulus

4:33 PM i think he got hosed a little bit

John: I HATE THAT GUY!

me: wow

John: i don't really hate him... just kind of arbitrary dislike, you know

me: come on, every time paulus plays, duke has a better chance of losing

you have to like that

4:34 PM John: I don't think Duke's style of basketball can win it all, but I kind of like them in one game against Pitt

Worse matchup for Pitt than Duke

me: i prefer pitt, but i'm willing to give you duke

sam young might have problems against henderson

i can see that

John: I'm going pitt... I think they are more likely to get to this game than Duke... hedge the bet

4:35 PM Pitt in the Final Four

me: ok, pitt in the final four

John: What region is next

me: south

and let me comment about the south

John: comment away...

me: i wish the f***ing tournament committee would stop giving north carolina CANDY CANE draws to the elite eight

4:36 PM this happens every year, and i'm sick of it

John: couldn't agree more

So UNC over Radford then?

me: yeah

John: Butler/LSU

me: give me LSU over butler

have to pick at least one sec team to win one game

and at least LSU/UNC might be interesting

John: yeah... my thinking exactly

4:37 PM Butler ain't beating UNC]

me: no, they ain't

John: LSU has a shot of Ty Lawson is still out...

me: yeah, they definitely do

John: WKU/Illinois

me: it's always hard for me to pick against WKU in the first round

i'll take them

4:38 PM John: I have a problem picking any team that losing 38-33 to Penn State, but WKU falls under my VCU corollary of getting on the cinderella bandwagon a year late

WKU it is!

me: corollary! proof by construction????

4:39 PM gonzaga/akron

John: zags

me: do you know anything about akron?

John: no

me: me neither

i take gonzaga

John: by the way, one of these years all the five seeds are going to win

me: true

could be this year

4:40 PM John: Yeah... but I like giving big red some love

me: arizona state/temple

John: plus I'd have the zags over illinois even if they did win, so it doesn't kill the bracket

me: right

i do too

illinois is also overseeded

John: Arizona St. is a frustrating team

4:41 PM me: yeah, why aren't they better?

John: I have them in the elite eight in one bracket and losing 1st round in another

me: i hate temple, going back to living in massachusetts, so i pick against them every year

4:42 PM John: I've always picked Temple in the past whenever possible, but I think a similar argument applies to ASU as does Tenn

i kinda like temple

ASU then?

me: we can pick asu

it's a tough game

might be nice to watch

John: true

4:43 PM Cuse/Stephen F. Austin?

me: doesn't sfa have a sliver of hope against syracuse?

4:44 PM John: I would say yes, based on history of 'Cuse doing well in the big east tourney then becoming overrated, but after watching Jonny Flynn, I feel he is the real deal

me: he is lefit

legit*

take the cuse

John: I think a team with an elite point guard isn't being knocked out by a lesser team

Clemson/Michigan

me: i love clemson in this tournament

John: I am so with you there

me: they got a yucky seed

John: no arguement

4:45 PM me: michigan is doable and they are physical enough to cause oklahoma a slew of problems

John: ... although a shout out to John Beleim for doing a commendable job with Mich so far

me: yeah, his philosophy of shooting the three whenever possible is good anywhere, any time

John: OU/Morgan St.

me: oklahoma over morgan state

John: done

4:46 PM me: but morgan state did beat maryland

just wanted to throw that in there

John: UNC/LSU

me: UNC

and we agree on the zags too, right?

John: right... i already penciled them in

ASU/Cuse?

4:47 PM I could go either way...

me: i take the cuse

but i'm ok with flipping a coin

John: Yeah... when in doubt, go big east. right?

me: right

John: we hinted at it earlier... clemson over OU?

me: let's do it

John: done

4:48 PM me: they have not looked the same

John: UNC/Gonzaga

me: unc

gonzaga can run with them but unc

John: as much as I hate to say it, no one can match up with hansborough

4:49 PM me: true

John: i really want someone to beat UNC though

me: as do i

John: 'Cuse/Clemson?

me: tough call

4:50 PM John: I gotta say, clemson is another final four sleeper to me, only with a more favorable draw than FSU

me: i agree, i don't know much about clemson, but they seem tough

4:51 PM i agree here

clemson?

John: I do like syracuse... but I think they are overrated after the big east tourney... and they won't be playing this game in NY

clemson

me: i picked the cuse in facebook, and i plan to pick oklahoma somewhere else, but i think that clemson is the best bang for your sleeper buck

4:52 PM much better sleeper than anyone else

ok, unc/clemson?

unc i think

John: ... so if you are a gambling man, i'd take whatever odds I can get for Clemson to make the final four

4:53 PM me: if i get clemson at 20:1 or higher, easily

especially if lawson is out

John: but, yeah... if you are picking UNC to make the 2nd week, you've got to put them in the final four because you've got to think ty lawson will be back by now

me: right

John: UNC's bracket just seems weak

4:54 PM alright... we've gone chalk and chalk so far

me: it is weak, oklahoma is a nightmare matchup for them but they just don't probably get there

i mean, griffin/hansborough would be epic

John: epic as in griffin making hansborough cry adam morrison style?

4:55 PM me: exactly

John: alright... time to shake things up out west?

me: i'm thinking 30/20/5 blocks

right

give me uconn

who i have the same complaint with as unc

over chattanooga

John: I like A&M over BYU

4:56 PM do you know anything about BYU?

me: no, but i also like a & m

John: I'd like to see them get far - they would take out UConn (a plus) and it would rub it in Billy Gillespie's face (a plus)

4:57 PM Although in all seriousness, I'm more anti Gillespie than I am anti UK

me: he is a tool

i like UK with a character coach

John: so do i

purdue/northern iowa

me: purdue

4:58 PM i saw northern iowa play in the mvc tournament and it looked ugly

John: a part of me likes to pick against purdue, but Northern Iowa doesn't have a shot

plus a healthy Robbie Hummel = Purdue doing well, and I like to see Robbie Hummel do well

me: stop being a bitter grad. student!

4:59 PM John: I'm also a fan of one JaJuan Johnson...

me: johnson is the hotness, e'twan moore is also legit

5:00 PM John: if I could just arrange some way getting Chris Kramer off the team, I could really get behind them... elite eight style

But I hate that guy.

(Again, arbitrary dislike, not actual hatred.)

Purdue speil over.

me: i agree, and i arbitrarily dislike him for probably similar reasons

John: Washington/Miss St.

5:01 PM me: tough call

John: I gotta claim east coast bias here and say I don't know anything about Washington

me: i take washington, but barely

i think they are good

they won the pac-10, right?

John: regular season i think

the game is in oregon... definite pac 10 advantage of Miss. St.

5:02 PM me: yeah, that's good enough for me

vanardo is a beast

i want to watch this game

i think it will be a good game

John: We'll add it to the Temple/ASU and Tenn/Ok. St. list

Marquette/Utah St.

5:03 PM me: marquette

John: I think Utah St. is going to be a popular upset pick - so I'm going Marquette - Utah St. is a poseur

me: i agree wholeheartedly

John: Marquette has had a brutal schedule of late and will take it's frustrations out on Utah

St.

Mizzou/Cornell

me: marquette is better

5:04 PM so is missoui

mizzou

mizzou

by a LOT

John: done

Cal/Maryland?

me: i want the over on mizzou

what is it

i will look it up

John: ok

me: safest money around in my opinion

give me maryland

John: btw, I don't care who wins Cal/Maryland... so you can pick

ok

me: let's take md for jason

5:05 PM John: done

me: MEMPHIS

John: done

me: next game, please

John: UConn/ A&M?

me: uconn over texas a & m?

i think so

John: yeah... but arbitrary claim time... A&M has a better shot of beating UConn than either Washington or Purdue

5:06 PM I don't know why I'm saying that

me: purdue has no shot with dyson out?

5:07 PM John: Q: Does being a perimeter oriented team help or hurt you against UConn?

me: i think it helps if you shoot well

for example, now i would think duke could beat uconn

John: Yeah, but I think it's pretty obvious the way to win is to get Thabeet in foul trouble

5:08 PM I think they can extend their D farther out with him inside

me: that's true. i also think that if you can stop adrian you're in business

John: anyway, moving on... Purdue/Washington

me: i don't know, you pick this one

5:09 PM John: I'm kind of for Taking Purdue as the known entity over the unknown entity (Wash)... but the game is in Portland

Matt Painter and Lorenzo Romar are both good coaches

I think this could be a very good 2nd round game

me: it should be good to watch

John: I'm actually going to give my school some love... Purdue over Washington

me: agreed

i like purdue

5:10 PM John: Marquette/Mizzou

I like Marquette...

...but I LOVE MIZZOU

me: missouri, sold

no dominic james really hurts marquette

John: do we need discuss memphis over Maryland?

me: no

5:11 PM let me make my quick case for purdue having a run at uconn

John: go for it

me: uconn has lost 3 of their last 8, 2 to pitt, but 1 was at home

if purdue can hit some threes and slow the game down they have a chance

John: i'll buy that

5:12 PM me: johnson is physical, hummel/kramer are pests, moore can shoot

John: UConn seems to have peaked early (as has Kansas and OU for that matter)

me: agreed

i still take uconn

it's much more probable

5:13 PM John: Yeah... I'd take Purdue in a bracket if I was still looking for an upset, but I think UConn going to play the "they don't think we're a legit #1 seed card" as motivation

me: true

memphis/missouri

John: Perhaps game of the tourney!

me: first, what a slugfest

wow

5:14 PM John: Mike Anderson = good coach, John Calipari = someone I dislike

me: could this game get into the 90s?

i love calipari

John: i know

me: he's a jackass coach that i like

John: This game could go into the 90's or stay in the 50's

5:15 PM me: memphis basketball = delicious

John: It's gonna be 40 minutes of streetball

How long into the game will it be before the refs just give up?

That should be a bettable line

me: i agree

5:16 PM John: Mike Anderson also = the last coach to be Calipari in CUSA

me: do you think dozier will throw someone to the floor? will quin snyder snake back into the game as an arch-villain?

tune in to CBS!

5:17 PM John: I like whoever wins to make the final four... that being said I know you like Memphis, and I'll defer to that

you were right last year

me: i like memphis against uconn as well

let's go memphis

John: If you had to put a % on it, what are Mizzou's chances against Memphis?

5:18 PM me: 35

maybe 40

it's close to a coin flip

John: I was thinking around 40% I guess

5:19 PM anyway... midwest

me: louisville over morehead

John: #1 over seed U of L over morehead it is

me: i have to take ohio state over siena as well

John: done

me: wake over cleveland state?

John: Yep

5:20 PM me: utah/arizona?

John: Should arizona be in the tournament? A popular question, no?

me: why not, i like seeing chase budinger and jordan hill more than those other guys

if arizona wins, they could beat wake (please, please!)

5:21 PM John: so you're already putting them past Utah?

me: i don't know about the game

5:22 PM John: we'll come back to it... WVU/Dayton

?

me: wvu

John: true

me: kansas over ndsu

i don't think this game will be close either

John: NDSU.... my upset special!!!!!

me: i think many people have been picking ndsu and kansas will be angry

5:23 PM John: really? I was unaware

me: is this your upset override?

i have kansas going down in round 2

John: i don't know - neither of us has played one

me: that's true

5:24 PM John: I think most people are picking against Kansas, but NDSU has like 4 or 5 redshirt seniors who all redshirted because they know that this would be their first year of NCAA eligibility

But I suppose most people know that story as well

5:25 PM me: yeah, i think kansas is weaker

but i think aldrich and collins will be playing pretty hard for reputations

John: My other big upset watch game is actually Portland St. over Xavier - and I can't bring myself to pick that one

5:26 PM OK... I'm talking myself down... kansas

Welcome to the big show, NDSU

me: my big upset watch is american over nova

which i can be talked out of as well

John: yeah... i'm not seeing that one at all... but you caved there, so I'll cave here

5:27 PM I think one thing to consider is how weak the tourney teams seeded 10 and up are

I mean, the bubble was awful this year, right?

me: and michigan state is going to completely punish robert morris, right?

it was bad

John: agreed

me: i think that there's almost no chance of seeing a major upset in round 1

5:28 PM John: BC/USC?

me: tough call

John: my gut is to pick against Tim Floyd...

me: usc looked really good in the pac10 tourney

but they are coached by tim floyd

go bc

i'll take bc

John: BC lost to harvard... and looked pretty content to just win one in the ACC tourney

5:29 PM BC it is

me: ok

louisville over ohio state

John: Back to Arizona/Utah... Utah's not getting very much respect are they?

me: sorry, i forgot

they aren't

they will probably beat arizona

5:30 PM John: I'd like to give them some mid-major love

me: give them the love

utah it is

5:31 PM John: but BTW, how come nobody brings up the Big East raid of CUSA when discussing the drop in mid major bids in recent years

me: it's a good point

CUSA needs memphis to win all of their games and simultaneously lose here and there in that conference

5:32 PM John: how true

the MVC was waaaaayyy down this year

me: it was

5:33 PM John: Although I think Patty Mills might be a counter arguement to your Arizona has better players to watch theory

me: fair enough

John: ...but mostly, I don't want to hear teams gripe about not getting in, and I don't want a 128 team tournament

5:34 PM more often than not, its a case of mediocre teams being let in than good teams being left out

me: right

couldn't agree more

John: and you don't want to make the regular season completely meaningless

anyway, tirade over

me: why should i feel sorry for penn state

why

if they wanted to be in the tournament, they had their opportunities

5:35 PM maybe they should have beat ohio state on the road, won a game in the big 10 tournament, or not scheduled the entire northeast conference

John: By the way, I'd like to nominate South Carolina for NIT team of the decade

me: lol

agreed

John: Utah/WF, 2nd round?

me: wake

5:36 PM John: WVU over Kansas?

me: yes

and michigan state will win as well i think

John: done

me: louisville/wake?

very, very tough matchup for louisville right?

5:37 PM John: There are similarities (athleticism) and differences (Wake has a point guard, U of L plays defense)

I mean... we're going to pick U of L, we just have to make a case right?

5:38 PM me: it's a tough case to make

i guess that terrence williams is the best case

he will likely cause wake some problems

John: How about Wake doesn't shoot all that well, and we can put three different people on teague throughout the game

5:39 PM me: earl clark might have a dominant performance in him

he holds up extremely well on the defensive end

he rebounds extremely well

John: I really like WF, and I actually think U of L might have the hardest path to the elite eight

me: oh, they definitely do

wake is underseeded

5:40 PM John: But I'm going homer and picking them

me: this is an embarrassment to the committee

wake as a 4, nova/kansas/syracuse as 3s???

John: the only reason you can't say they have the hardest path to the final four is they don't have to play memphis

yeah

i don't know what's going on there

Also, I'll say it, do you think people overreacted to U of L winning the big east, making them #1 overall?

5:41 PM me: not really. unc should have been the number one overall seed, but louisville is a solid number one overall as well

at worst we are 2

John: Either way, doesn't feel like a #1 overall draw...

me: the bottom of the bracket is weaker than other brackets

John: Look... lets take U of L (with reservations)

me: michigan state is a weak 2 compared to memphis or oklahoma

or duke

John: true

me: agreed

5:42 PM how about wvu over michigan state?

John: if you'd like to file a rebuttal bracket, feel free

me: can i talk you into that one?

i think pitt's bracket is not fun either

John: It's really hard to pick against Tom Izzo in the tournament

5:43 PM me: it is hard

John: ... also, more like MSU gets to this game than WVU, in my humble opinion

5:44 PM me: i'll give you msu then

John: in the interest of spicing it up, I'll go huggy bear

me: but i reserve the right to pick wvu in my bracket

ok, louisville/michigan state? i can take the logic for msu

5:45 PM plus izzo can outcoach huggins at will

John: We've got 1 v 2 in three of 4 brackets that way... this is what happens when two people come together... a lot of chalk

MSU it is

me: btw, i saw osu play msu earlier: izzo destroyed motta in the second half

John: U of L a definitive matchup problem for MSU?

me: definitely

msu doesn't have the right answers

5:46 PM they're also not as talented in my opinion

John: Pitt/UNC?

me: unc

i think

John: Blair/Hansborough is tasty

another opportunity to make "Psycho T" (I hate that nickname) cry like a little girl?

me: delicious

5:47 PM John: all of this is contingent on ty lawson, but I think he can make levance fields vomit on court

me: it's ok, when dwight howard, shaq, and mehmet okur destroy psycho t next year, the nickname will go away

5:48 PM fields will definitely ralph on the court

wait: i had this thought

John: UNC will do a better job of imposing their game - namely uptempo basketball

me: AMARE dunking on HANSBOROUGH

i agree

5:49 PM John: U of L / Memphis... or the REAL Nathional Championship game as I call it?

me: louisville

we will prevail

5:50 PM John: sorry... suzanne called

she says hi

5:51 PM i feel like I should recuse myself from input because I LOVE U of L and I HATE Calipari

at least you might be objective about it

but if you say u of l, i'll ride that log flume

me: i just don't think memphis has the right players to cause louisville problems

wake forest does

5:52 PM put terrence williams on tyreke evans

and i think maybe louisville can get enough from everyone else to win

John: it's hard to say what give u of l problems - obviously thabeet was a problem for us

i didn't see our ND loss... but I'm guessing harangody was a problem

5:53 PM me: i think tough interior play is a big weakness

we never got off the bus for that game

that was the problem

John: so elite big men seem to be something... but we did beat pitt

ha!

me: we also beat syracuse, they're reasonably tough inside

really, so is wvu in my opinion

John: i think pitino has the samuels/jennings platoon figured out

5:54 PM me: he does

here's my arbitrary claim

John: obviously, the big weakness for u of l is elite guard play - but that can be nullified by making T-Will point forward

me: jennings = first round pick someday

5:55 PM jerry smith has moments of elite guard play in him

that shot he made at the end of the wvu game was huge

5:56 PM John: ok... it's come down to the ultimate question, do we take U of L and make it seem like we're total homers, or take UNC and make it look like we're trying a bit too hard to be objective?

me: i'm going to take louisville

but unc will probably win

John: it will be a wild ride while it lasts though

me: the caveat: roy williams melts down for the ten thousandth time in a big game

5:57 PM get ready for it: the roy williams meltdown!

John: pitino > roy williams... i'll take that to the bank

score of finals?

5:58 PM me: 82-77

no idea

5:59 PM John: A score that high definitely favors UNC... U of L wins with defense - 75-70

me: fair enough

John: done

6:00 PM best potential coaching matchup of the tourney: pitino vs. izzo

is there a worst potential game to watch?

me: yes

John: drumroll...

me: here it is:

6:01 PM illinois akron

wisconsin xavier

John: ouch!!!!

so basically big 10 v (blank)

me: right

ohio state siena should be good