A 411 on the NL West...
For those of us who aren't from the Wild Wild West, it may not be clear that one playoff spot a year does indeed go to a team west of the Mississippi. This is a difficult thing to swallow, but since we must all make the best of it and can't just arbitrarily choose some equally matched, compelling NL East rivalries, we should at least become informed about this. So we'll try to handicap the race.
Last year, the NL West hunt proved to be quite a compelling race. There were three main culprits, one spoiler, and one complete mess of a team. Among the three culprits was San Diego, this year's current NL West leader and my pick for "most likely to win the NL West." San Diego is a rather interestingly-built ballclub. It doesn't contain any bonafide stars, but it has a lot of good players. The Padres are led by former Pirate Brian Giles, who came over to San Diego in what appears to be an increasingly lopsided trade involving Jason Bay and Oliver Perez. Nevertheless, Giles has been a solid if unspectacular Padre, and is the leader of a very questionable lineup.
I call the Padres' lineup questionable because it is up for grabs whether this lineup should be significantly better than it is or not. For one, the Padres don't have anyone who is currently starting that is hitting over .300. For another thing, the Padres sure have a lot of people who seem like they should be hitting better than they are, including Ryan Klesko, Phil Nevin, Khalil Greene, and Xavier Nady. All of these guys have been tracked for stardom at one point in time, and while the clock's not running out on Greene, it is certainly ticking on the other three. However, before we can call this lineup a disappointment, we should look at other hitters in the lineup (namely Dave Roberts, Ramon Hernandez, and Mark Sweeney) who have been good pickups for the Padres. Do these two types of Padre hitters counterbalance? I guess that's the real question here.
The Padres also have two great young starters in Adam Eaton and Jake Peavy, who some of us may remember as last year's ERA title-holder. Individuals such as Woody Williams, Brian Lawrence, and rookie Tim Stauffer hold down the rest of the rotation, and Hoffman still closes the door. This remarkable collection of decent players (plus Peavy, who is a legit Cy Young candidate) is good enough for an NL West lead.
Why is this the case? Each NL West team that follows the Padres in the standings has at least one glaring hole in their lineup or rotation that needs to be resolved. Let's look at second-place Arizona. This alone is a remarkable statement; last year Arizona was unspeakably bad and this year they miraculously came up with money to sign shiny new free agents, including Troy Glaus, Russ Ortiz, and Shawn Green. The D-Backs also managed to pick up the ultimate one year fill-in, Jose Cruz. Remarkably, signing half of a new lineup and keeping a veteran rotation around can really do wonders for a team. In fact, Arizona was leading the NL West until disaster struck and Brandon Lyon was injured. This current lack of a closer has caused Arizona some problems, and is a reason why Arizona isn't doing better. Another reason is the utter demise of Ortiz- as predicted by many analysts previous to the year, Ortiz has benefitted from big ballparks and is getting hammered down in Bank One. It's worth noting that Javy Vazquez's last few starts are scary as well. If Arizona wishes to remain a part of this race, their pitching staff will have to be resolved.
This brings us to the two main disappointments of the NL West: the Dodgers and the Giants. Los Angeles supposedly had a solid lineup together for the season- after signing Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew, the Dodgers appeared ready for an NL West run and possibly a title run. However, disaster struck. Eric Gagne went down for the year, Drew broke his wrist, All-Star Cesar Izturis just went on the DL, Odalis Perez spent a month and half on the DL, and Milton Bradley broke his finger. In short, injuries crushed the Dodgers. If one combines the injuries with Los Angeles's laissez-faire attitude about acquiring a solid lineup- seriously, they've needed hitting for the last 15 years- and the combustible nature of their staff, with Jeff Weaver AND Derek Lowe anchoring it, it is of little surprise that the Dodgers are once again languishing.
San Francisco hasn't really had a fair deck the whole year, as they've had to deal with the whole "Will Barry Play?" saga. This huge ridiculous mess has settled into the "Will it matter?" question. San Francisco has actually gotten by offensively, sparked by rookie Lance Niekro, the solid Pedro Feliz, and Moises Alou. However, their pitching has inexplicably melted down, led by Jason Schmidt, who apparently has lost most of his trademark movement on his fastball. This deleterious turn has been compounded by the season-ending injury to Armando Benitez, the utter failure of former Twin Latroy Hawkins :( and the wholesale disappointments of Kirk Rueter and Brett Tomko, two guys who should be pitching better than they are. It appears the bubble may have burst on San Fran's fragile rotation, which could send the Giants spiraling.
And then there's Colorado, which has been bad as normal. I like the Rockies because I used to live there, and this is kind of tough to watch. Their rotation is bad, though Jeff Francis has promise. Their lineup can't hit... THEIR LINEUP CAN'T HIT! Todd Helton has had his worst season ever, rookie Clint Barmes fell down some stairs... Desi Relaford is starting... what else can I say? Shawn Chacon was on his way back until he strained his hamstring. I could write a while on this, and maybe I will, but I'll save it for later.
PREDICTED NL WEST FINISH:
San Diego 87-75
Los Angeles 82-80 (a reach...)
Arizona 76-86
San Francisco 73-89
Colorado 58-104 (this is generous)
Last year, the NL West hunt proved to be quite a compelling race. There were three main culprits, one spoiler, and one complete mess of a team. Among the three culprits was San Diego, this year's current NL West leader and my pick for "most likely to win the NL West." San Diego is a rather interestingly-built ballclub. It doesn't contain any bonafide stars, but it has a lot of good players. The Padres are led by former Pirate Brian Giles, who came over to San Diego in what appears to be an increasingly lopsided trade involving Jason Bay and Oliver Perez. Nevertheless, Giles has been a solid if unspectacular Padre, and is the leader of a very questionable lineup.
I call the Padres' lineup questionable because it is up for grabs whether this lineup should be significantly better than it is or not. For one, the Padres don't have anyone who is currently starting that is hitting over .300. For another thing, the Padres sure have a lot of people who seem like they should be hitting better than they are, including Ryan Klesko, Phil Nevin, Khalil Greene, and Xavier Nady. All of these guys have been tracked for stardom at one point in time, and while the clock's not running out on Greene, it is certainly ticking on the other three. However, before we can call this lineup a disappointment, we should look at other hitters in the lineup (namely Dave Roberts, Ramon Hernandez, and Mark Sweeney) who have been good pickups for the Padres. Do these two types of Padre hitters counterbalance? I guess that's the real question here.
The Padres also have two great young starters in Adam Eaton and Jake Peavy, who some of us may remember as last year's ERA title-holder. Individuals such as Woody Williams, Brian Lawrence, and rookie Tim Stauffer hold down the rest of the rotation, and Hoffman still closes the door. This remarkable collection of decent players (plus Peavy, who is a legit Cy Young candidate) is good enough for an NL West lead.
Why is this the case? Each NL West team that follows the Padres in the standings has at least one glaring hole in their lineup or rotation that needs to be resolved. Let's look at second-place Arizona. This alone is a remarkable statement; last year Arizona was unspeakably bad and this year they miraculously came up with money to sign shiny new free agents, including Troy Glaus, Russ Ortiz, and Shawn Green. The D-Backs also managed to pick up the ultimate one year fill-in, Jose Cruz. Remarkably, signing half of a new lineup and keeping a veteran rotation around can really do wonders for a team. In fact, Arizona was leading the NL West until disaster struck and Brandon Lyon was injured. This current lack of a closer has caused Arizona some problems, and is a reason why Arizona isn't doing better. Another reason is the utter demise of Ortiz- as predicted by many analysts previous to the year, Ortiz has benefitted from big ballparks and is getting hammered down in Bank One. It's worth noting that Javy Vazquez's last few starts are scary as well. If Arizona wishes to remain a part of this race, their pitching staff will have to be resolved.
This brings us to the two main disappointments of the NL West: the Dodgers and the Giants. Los Angeles supposedly had a solid lineup together for the season- after signing Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew, the Dodgers appeared ready for an NL West run and possibly a title run. However, disaster struck. Eric Gagne went down for the year, Drew broke his wrist, All-Star Cesar Izturis just went on the DL, Odalis Perez spent a month and half on the DL, and Milton Bradley broke his finger. In short, injuries crushed the Dodgers. If one combines the injuries with Los Angeles's laissez-faire attitude about acquiring a solid lineup- seriously, they've needed hitting for the last 15 years- and the combustible nature of their staff, with Jeff Weaver AND Derek Lowe anchoring it, it is of little surprise that the Dodgers are once again languishing.
San Francisco hasn't really had a fair deck the whole year, as they've had to deal with the whole "Will Barry Play?" saga. This huge ridiculous mess has settled into the "Will it matter?" question. San Francisco has actually gotten by offensively, sparked by rookie Lance Niekro, the solid Pedro Feliz, and Moises Alou. However, their pitching has inexplicably melted down, led by Jason Schmidt, who apparently has lost most of his trademark movement on his fastball. This deleterious turn has been compounded by the season-ending injury to Armando Benitez, the utter failure of former Twin Latroy Hawkins :( and the wholesale disappointments of Kirk Rueter and Brett Tomko, two guys who should be pitching better than they are. It appears the bubble may have burst on San Fran's fragile rotation, which could send the Giants spiraling.
And then there's Colorado, which has been bad as normal. I like the Rockies because I used to live there, and this is kind of tough to watch. Their rotation is bad, though Jeff Francis has promise. Their lineup can't hit... THEIR LINEUP CAN'T HIT! Todd Helton has had his worst season ever, rookie Clint Barmes fell down some stairs... Desi Relaford is starting... what else can I say? Shawn Chacon was on his way back until he strained his hamstring. I could write a while on this, and maybe I will, but I'll save it for later.
PREDICTED NL WEST FINISH:
San Diego 87-75
Los Angeles 82-80 (a reach...)
Arizona 76-86
San Francisco 73-89
Colorado 58-104 (this is generous)
posted by mike at 7:37 PM
2 Comments:
Apparently this article actually jinxed the Dodgers, as Jeff Kent just went down with a strained hamstring. Wow.
Wow, that's impossible! Kudos to John for the nice work...
On a similar note, baseball card companies do this stuff all the time. I think one year Marty Cordova hit 901 homers according to Topps.
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