I watched a double-overtime basketball game today.
Well, I got to see Ohio State lose a poorly-played double overtime game today, and I must just be bad luck, because Louisville also lost today. I don't even know how much of a Top 25 team Louisville is without Taquan Dean at 100%, but it seemed like they hung in there against Pitt. I wouldn't know, since I didn't get to see the game, but that's just my intuition. By the way, when a potential economist says "intuition," that means "they don't know and are making stuff up."
Now, on to Ohio State/Michigan State, or as I'll dub it, "Why not to live by the three."
Michigan State and Ohio State combined to shoot a hideous 9-39 from three, and OSU missed 20 threes. When Ohio State decided that running their offense was a good idea, they were mildly effective. Michigan State couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, and Maurice Ager had one of the worst games I've seen in recent memory. If you're a right-handed shooter, dribbling to your left and pulling up for the J isn't a good idea unless you're Kobe or T-Mac, which Ager is not. Tom Izzo was constantly taking him out of the game, probably reminding him that East Lansing is a long walk from Columbus. Still, there were positives for both teams; among which included...
Team defense. Both teams are solid at the defensive end, which led to lots of difficult shots for both teams.
Inside presence.
Terrence Dials is a force; so is Paul Davis, who I consider to be the most underrated player in college basketball. Davis can't really shoot too well from 16-18 feet yet, but from 10 feet in, he's really the best, in my opinion. He's fundamentally sound, which means he makes most of his high-percentage shots. This is really an underrated ability- not blowing layups, drop-step post moves, and putbacks can make a huge difference over the course of the game, and makes you more attractive to stick in the NBA. Additionally, Davis has an effective short-range jumper, which makes him to difficult for a college player to guard. In some sense, he's another Michael Doleac, but his game is really different and he seems more mobile. Plus, he outplayed Sheldon Williams last year in the Dance- does anybody remember this? He can flat-out play defense.
Yeah, I'll give Dials some cred too. He has a nice little left-handed hook shot, and he knows how to rebound. Thad Motta didn't substitute nearly as well as Tom Izzo did; Izzo stole time for Davis during stretches in both the first and second half, while Motta just left Dials in. Consequently, in the second half, Dials spent a lot of time jogging in from the backcourt, because he was too tired to run full strength, and OSU got to play a little too much 4-on-5. But that's Thad's fault, I think. Dials played 48 of 50 minutes.
So, now the big question is, why didn't I talk about the Big 10 earlier?
Well, I think the conference tied for second-best in the country. The ACC still has Duke (as well as UNC, N.C. State, Maryland, Boston College, Miami, and Wake...) and I just think it's tougher to win consistently in the ACC since there are fewer really bad teams- see Northwestern, Purdue, and Penn State.
But they'll push six teams into the dance comfortably this year. Michigan State is in; so are Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. Ohio State did enough out-of-conference, as did Iowa. While you can't make that statement about the ACC, you can argue that there are fewer "gimmies" in the ACC, which is my deciding factor for conference strength. As we see the Big 10 shake itself out, we'll know a little bit more about the talent of these teams.
Why isn't the Big 10 number one? They don't have "UConn," and "Villanova." Why aren't they a solid number two? They don't have "Duke," making them a tie for number two. None of the Big 10 teams (except Michigan State) strike me as title contenders, and I also think that has something to do with how great your conference is.
I have to talk some more about college basketball, namely those great non-conference games that nobody seems to care about. The fact that the Dance exists in the format of one-and-done makes people think that somehow the regular college basketball season doesn't make a lot of difference, and people just ignore big, big matchups.
Well, in order to get to the end of the Dance, you've got to play big regular season non-conference games. It's the whole "learning-by-doing" thing.
Don't believe me? Well, last year UNC beat both Kentucky and UConn, while Illinois beat Wake Forest. The year before, UConn played eventual runner-up Georgia Tech and North Carolina out of conference. Before that? Syracuse took on NCAA teams Memphis, Missouri, and Elite 8 team Michigan State. Get the idea? You don't win if you don't play tough out-of-conference games, and people ignore them every year. So look at Memphis, Texas, Duke, Villanova, UConn, Michigan State, Gonzaga, and others if you want to see who will win it all. Those teams played monster out-of-conference schedules. Not surprisingly, those teams are the ones ranked highest. There's no correlation there... It's time for me to get some sleep, though.
Now, on to Ohio State/Michigan State, or as I'll dub it, "Why not to live by the three."
Michigan State and Ohio State combined to shoot a hideous 9-39 from three, and OSU missed 20 threes. When Ohio State decided that running their offense was a good idea, they were mildly effective. Michigan State couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, and Maurice Ager had one of the worst games I've seen in recent memory. If you're a right-handed shooter, dribbling to your left and pulling up for the J isn't a good idea unless you're Kobe or T-Mac, which Ager is not. Tom Izzo was constantly taking him out of the game, probably reminding him that East Lansing is a long walk from Columbus. Still, there were positives for both teams; among which included...
Team defense. Both teams are solid at the defensive end, which led to lots of difficult shots for both teams.
Inside presence.
Terrence Dials is a force; so is Paul Davis, who I consider to be the most underrated player in college basketball. Davis can't really shoot too well from 16-18 feet yet, but from 10 feet in, he's really the best, in my opinion. He's fundamentally sound, which means he makes most of his high-percentage shots. This is really an underrated ability- not blowing layups, drop-step post moves, and putbacks can make a huge difference over the course of the game, and makes you more attractive to stick in the NBA. Additionally, Davis has an effective short-range jumper, which makes him to difficult for a college player to guard. In some sense, he's another Michael Doleac, but his game is really different and he seems more mobile. Plus, he outplayed Sheldon Williams last year in the Dance- does anybody remember this? He can flat-out play defense.
Yeah, I'll give Dials some cred too. He has a nice little left-handed hook shot, and he knows how to rebound. Thad Motta didn't substitute nearly as well as Tom Izzo did; Izzo stole time for Davis during stretches in both the first and second half, while Motta just left Dials in. Consequently, in the second half, Dials spent a lot of time jogging in from the backcourt, because he was too tired to run full strength, and OSU got to play a little too much 4-on-5. But that's Thad's fault, I think. Dials played 48 of 50 minutes.
So, now the big question is, why didn't I talk about the Big 10 earlier?
Well, I think the conference tied for second-best in the country. The ACC still has Duke (as well as UNC, N.C. State, Maryland, Boston College, Miami, and Wake...) and I just think it's tougher to win consistently in the ACC since there are fewer really bad teams- see Northwestern, Purdue, and Penn State.
But they'll push six teams into the dance comfortably this year. Michigan State is in; so are Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. Ohio State did enough out-of-conference, as did Iowa. While you can't make that statement about the ACC, you can argue that there are fewer "gimmies" in the ACC, which is my deciding factor for conference strength. As we see the Big 10 shake itself out, we'll know a little bit more about the talent of these teams.
Why isn't the Big 10 number one? They don't have "UConn," and "Villanova." Why aren't they a solid number two? They don't have "Duke," making them a tie for number two. None of the Big 10 teams (except Michigan State) strike me as title contenders, and I also think that has something to do with how great your conference is.
I have to talk some more about college basketball, namely those great non-conference games that nobody seems to care about. The fact that the Dance exists in the format of one-and-done makes people think that somehow the regular college basketball season doesn't make a lot of difference, and people just ignore big, big matchups.
Well, in order to get to the end of the Dance, you've got to play big regular season non-conference games. It's the whole "learning-by-doing" thing.
Don't believe me? Well, last year UNC beat both Kentucky and UConn, while Illinois beat Wake Forest. The year before, UConn played eventual runner-up Georgia Tech and North Carolina out of conference. Before that? Syracuse took on NCAA teams Memphis, Missouri, and Elite 8 team Michigan State. Get the idea? You don't win if you don't play tough out-of-conference games, and people ignore them every year. So look at Memphis, Texas, Duke, Villanova, UConn, Michigan State, Gonzaga, and others if you want to see who will win it all. Those teams played monster out-of-conference schedules. Not surprisingly, those teams are the ones ranked highest. There's no correlation there... It's time for me to get some sleep, though.
posted by mike at 9:29 PM
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