NBA DRAFT!!! AHHHH!!!!

The NBA Draft is traditionally a joyous occasion, where really bad teams celebrate their fortune in a brief ray of hope which finds enterprising youth in ugly suit jackets on the big stage.

So why is this year's NBA Draft shaping up to be one of the ugliest drafts ever?

Well, much as the year 2000, there's no real definition to the lottery. Last year, we found the lottery shaping up at the very end, with three solid point guards drafted after two big men who were "projects."

This year, there's none of that. There aren't any players who are projected to be superstars instantly; moreover, there's no clear consensus on what each particular player's actual projection even is.

So, with all of this in mind, I'll make my projections of what each team should pick.

1. Toronto Raptors...

The Raptors have the propensity to screw this pick up the way few teams can. There have been reports that Indiana wanted this pick (and was willing to trade Jermaine O'Neal for it), which I find unlikely since Indiana isn't that silly. So, let's assume that Toronto, who wants to trade down and take Andrea Bargnani, can't trade down with anyone. They take...

Andrea Bargnani.

Admittedly, I know nothing about this guy, but Toronto, who needs a center, will probably end up taking this guy because he can shoot and there's always a chance that they can trade for a center anyway. Toronto's not really good enough to fool anyone here, so they'll probably take the guy they want. That seemed to work for them last year.

2. Chicago Bulls.

The problem for the Bulls is that there's not a logical direction for this pick to go other than size. It's buyer beware with size in this draft, so I would pick the guy from Texas who, despite getting dominated by LSU in the Elite Eight, is still the logical pick here. That guy...

LaMarcus Aldridge.

The knock on Aldridge is heart and confidence. Still, you can't coach post moves, height, or talent (don't quote me on the first one, but there are still many guys in the NBA who can't do anything in the post, so it's something you've either got (or not). I'd take Aldridge here over Tyrus Thomas, a guy who will probably slide in my draft further than he will in the actual draft.

3. Charlotte Bobcats.

There's never any logic to what the Bobcats seem to be doing, but I'll give the Bobcats a hint here: Rudy Gay is your franchise. Rudy Gay is your franchise. Rudy Gay is your franchise.

Rudy Gay.

Seriously, this is the only no-brainer in the draft. The Bobcats need a scorer whose name doesn't end in Rush. Rudy Gay is a scorer who happened to go to the same school as their star center. I think the logic is obvious.

4. Portland Trail Blazers.

By now, the Trail Blazer fans are rabid for the guy that looks like a pirate. The problem for Adam Morrison is that he may not be the guy that really clicks with that Blazer team (partially because he plays the same position as Darius Miles, a player who is quickly becoming the posterchild for all that is wrong with the NBA (which is a true shame, considering where he came from.) Honestly, I feel that Miles is impressionable and got caught up with the wrong crowd.

Adam Morrison.

Obviously, this guy has to be chosen sort of near the top, but he might not be a whole lot better than Wally Szczerbiak. Sorry to disappoint you, Blazers fans. (Wait, there aren't any Blazers fans.)

5. Atlanta Hawks.

Apparently, the Hawks are working some sort of sign-and-trade with Brandon Roy to send him to the Rockets, who want a guard that doesn't suck to be on their team. I'll go with this arbitrary rumor, so I'll let the Hawks take...

Brandon Roy.

Roy should really be on the Hawks, but there are widespread rumors that the Hawks have already agreed to some sort of deal with Shelden Williams, which might be the worst idea ever. Actually, I like Shelden, but the problem is that they already drafted Marvin Williams last year. Maybe they got confused.

6. Minnesota T-Wolves.

This is the most critical pick in the draft. The T-Wolves finally get to be in the lottery after the Joe Smith debacle, which gives them first strike at my pick for the best player in the draft, UConn point guard Marcus Williams. His value would almost certainly be higher without the baggage that he's carrying around.

Marcus Williams.

This is the first and probably only peace offering that will be made to Kevin Garnett; I think it's some sort of apology for signing Marko Jaric. Now, McHale only needs to apologize for Olowokandi, Ricky Davis, Sprewell...

7. Boston Celtics.

The Celtics have a problem at this pick; namely, they'd like to take Randy Foye, but Tyrus Thomas is still available, and he's looking a lot better than Al Jefferson at this point. I also
think the Celtics might trade out of this pick, so let's assume they take...

Tyrus Thomas.

Here's the thing. The Celtics aren't going anywhere; so they'll probably try to maximize their potential for the future, since that seems to be what they've done the past few drafts.

8. Houston Rockets.

There's that trade I was mentioning... the Rockets have incentive to take Randy Foye at this point, but they'll take...

Shelden Williams.

They'll obtain Brandon Roy, and they'll make the playoffs, like they were supposed to this year.

9. Golden State Warriors.

I think Golden State could take anyone in this spot and they would still be very inconsistent and very shaky as a franchise. So, as they consider taking Villanova's Randy Foye, the player that everyone has fallen in love with as of late, they'll have to deal with the fact that they've obtained Baron Davis willingly and can't just kick him to the curb like they want to.

Randy Foye.

Foye has a little bit of Wade in him, but let's be realistic: he's more likely to be a very solid pro, which should make him a nice fit for the Warriors.

10. Seattle Sonics.

I think Seattle has a fairly reasonable choice in Rodney Carney.

Rodney Carney.

The rationale: he's a safe pick who can run the floor and possibly shoot, which is something the Sonics want. Plus, having Carney around could provide some leeway for the Sonics when they decide to get rid of Rashard Lewis.

Post-Qual Post.

I'm updating; now everyone can just chill.

I'm sorry to say that my sports blog has missed arguably one of the greatest months of sports ever. Technically, this would make me disqualified to be a sportswriter in any meaningful sense. We've had the Stanley Cup playoffs, which have gone "the literal distance," as we should say. For some reason, Edmonton, the eighth seed in the playoffs, decided to prolong the playoffs for two more games after being down 3-1 to Carolina. Watching Game 7 tonight helped me reaffirm why:

Hockey's popularity is limited.

Let me try to explain. After all, this is a tough argument to make. If hockey can survive in Carolina, it should be able to survive anywhere, right? Look at all the fans!

Well, we see the fans in Carolina, but we also see that the team is winning Stanley Cups. So maybe the Carolina Hurricanes aren't the best example of a true NHL story.

So I'll put my readers to the test: name three Hurricanes.

You can't do it; I can't do it either. I should know something about it, but the only guy I can name is Rod Brind'Amour, who's been in the NHL for roughly 30 years. Apparently Mark Recchi is on this team too, which is something I looked up to write this. Again, Carolina just won the Stanley Cup.

This probably shouldn't be the case, but it has been for years. When Tampa Bay won the Stanley Cup (if anybody remembers that), they had the talented Martin St. Louis and Vincent LeCavalier, players who were great and have noticable skills. But the LIghtning have come and gone, and the NHL couldn't cash in on its success in any place but Tampa Bay.

One thing hockey has always struggled with is brand name; that is, people can't quite get their heads around who plays where, and it has suffered mightily because of this fact. I looked up the true star of the 'Canes- his name is Eric Staal, and he's a 100-point scorer. And his picture should have been plastered all over Raleigh, and his face should be in NHL commercials next year. But my educated guess is that Staal, the second pick of the 2003 draft, isn't getting much. The NHL has just barely managed to adequately pitch Sidney Crosby, who many consider to be second coming of Gretzky, and his Lemieux-ian counterpart, Alexander Ovechkin, who had an unreasonably great season for the Washington Capitals in his first season.

Would this happen with Ichiro, LeBron, or any NFL player?

No. We would see them on video games; we would see them on TV, and we would definitely hear about their performances on ESPN every chance we got. But this doesn't happen with the NHL.

Can you make people like hockey? Sure. After all, minor league hockey works really well in the South, where rinks and ice aren't exactly common place. Why does minor league hockey work? Well, it's probably got something to do with the fact that individual entrepreneurs are trying intensely to maximize profit; they've got death grips on reasonable venues, and they pitch the teams to their cities with ferocity. In some sense, the same idea has yet to translate to the NHL.

Let's look at another case study: the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Going to see a Blue Jackets game at $30 is a little too much for a college student, but Columbus has 65,000 college students. Offering moderate discounts to see crappy teams isn't exactly a great solution, and by and large, the Blue Jackets have sort of left out their potential base, who easily substitute to college hockey in the same town. Now, Columbus has Rick Nash, another player who's young and ludicrously talented. And there's a great chance that many of us don't know Rick Nash from John Nash or Kevin Nash. That's just the way things are with the NHL right now, but that's not necessarily the way things should be.

The NHL would be much better off if it pitched itself as the ultimate hockey league, in an accept-no-substitutes style. People shouldn't think college hockey is a reasonable substitute for pro hockey; after all, nobody substitutes the Buckeye tennis team for professionals. There is a notable difference between pro and semi-pro/amateur hockey, and it's a difference that the NHL, for whatever reason, has no interest in marketing. This type of rationale should naturally extend toward the NHL's promotion of young stars: I want Staal, Crosby, Nash, Kovalchuk, and Ovechkin on every bulletin board in NHL cities next year. They're the future of hockey, and if the NHL wants a future, it had better start showing that future off.

To be fair, a couple of teams have understood this idea; the Detroit Red Wings and the Colorado Avalanche have kept stars on their teams and have built not only the concept of hockey up (which needed no introduction in cold-weather climates), but have built the concept of star players up on their teams, which is something that pretty much every team in the NHL should learn from.

So why did tonight's game re-affirm why hockey has limited popularity? It's simple; the game looked nice, but I didn't know anything about it, so I was tempted to flip the channel. And the fact that I didn't know anything about it is strictly the fault of the NHL.

to all my friends...

I'm sorry that I haven't updated. I really haven't had a chance to update, because it normally takes me an hour or two to come up with something reasonable to put on here, and I can't really justify in the vicinity of qualifiers and finals. In a week, I'll be able to update.

Mike