blazin' glory.

so i frequently read people who blog much better than i do, and i haven't heard these people offer any compelling reasons for why the portland trail blazers have won 11 consecutive games. until these individuals come forth with the real reasons, i'll take a first pass attempt at it.

the first reason is the most obvious: namely, that brandon roy is a legitimate all-star. and because roy is an all-star, he can take over the game down the stretch. he's an interesting player; out of college, i was sure that roy couldn't play any defense whatsoever. i falsely associated roy with washington's style of play, which was to run up and down the court and try to outscore teams in a sort of ridiculous manner. and here's a nugget of truth- louisville's #4 seed in 2005 was one of the biggest jokes ever. that might, seriously, be one of the worst seedings of all time. the tournament committee probably figured that louisville would get to washington, but making one mistake is no excuse for making another. but that is neither here nor anywhere else. the fact is that we should have had some clue that roy was the real deal when he came out gunning in the 2006 tournament, but people (like me) associated him with eddie jones, who many don't consider to be that special.

we know now that roy is special, and we should be able to recognize that EJ was special too. of course, since roy gets to the rim much more fluidly, we can rank these guys ordinally. and we know what that ranking would be.

so roy is special enough on the defensive and offensive ends. so is chris paul, and his team can't win 11 in a row. why on earth can the blazers do this?

one reason is shot selection. the blazers have a number of guys who aren't even remotely interested in getting more than five shots in a game. steve blake is an athletic eric snow, while joel przybilla will be the best backup center in the league next year. so if those guys are on the court at the same time, like they were tonight, then there are plenty of shots for guys who need shots. martell webster is one of those guys; in order to be effective in a game, he needs to take maybe 10 shots. james jones needs shots to be effective. so does aldridge, but with blake and joel pryz. playing their defined roles, there are generally shots available for all of those guys. and this leads to better shot selection, since blake is interested in getting those guys good shots.

so the blazers might be a happier team than most others. and this means that they play as a team. and that wins games, even at the highest level.

but the blazers might have one of the best benches in the nba. sergio rodriguez, jarrett jack, channing frye, travis outlaw, and james jones are the second unit!

to give you an idea of how effective this second unit could be, consider the following thought experiment: suppose aldridge gets hurt, or is ineffective. on most teams, this is a more serious problem then it is on portland. the reason is simple: channing frye is a very effective player in limited minutes. frye will probably always be too thin to play either pf or c in the league, but he is perfectly capable of providing energy and scoring off the bench. i mean, frye was a lottery pick, for cryin' out loud.

but there's more. james jones has been in winning environments, with the exact same role that he has on the blazers. jones is a discount james posey, and sergio is beno udrih with skillz. jarrett jack could start for a few teams at point guard, and outlaw is out there specifically to pretend as if he is zach randolph for a few nights.

so the second unit can score. what's more, they can hold their own in the second quarter, which keeps portland in most games. in the nba, everyone makes a run, but the key to winning games is to be around at the half. because you can make runs in basketball games, but it requires a lot of energy. you cut the lead to one or tie the game, but then you run into the problem of having the lead expanded on you to five, six, or seven. then reality sets in.

jarrett jack is extremely effective playing with roy. that much is evident. but jack needs to be encouraged not to shoot. that's why steve blake is there. that's also why sergio is there;

now, how does this imply the blazers can win 11 games in a row? here are their opponents...
golden state = no defense
denver = no bench/no point guard (2x)
utah = a gong show (2x)
memphis = not very good
miami = worst team in the league? ask stephen a.
milwaukee = golden state of the east
toronto = weird/no tj ford
seattle = bad
new orleans = tough win?

it's not inconceivable to think that the blazers are almost as good as denver and utah right now as far as team play goes. because after 'melo/ai/camby, the nuggets aren't good. najera is way overrated, and i don't know what's going on in utah. nobody does. that team has perhaps the best starting five in the nba and they are underperforming.

new orleans isn't a deep team, so they're going to lose a few every now and then. and portland is better than the other teams i mentioned, including golden state. golden state is forever doomed by no post presence. i could go on and on with the flaws. this is missing the point, however.

the blazers are a story of heart and depth. and that's why the nba is worth watching. here's a team that was given no chance to win by everyone, including me. but brandon roy turned the corner, aldridge ascended to legitimacy, and steve blake kept the ship together. steve blake kept the ship together! the pieces fit in portland, and they'll fit even better next year, when oden, another guy who doesn't need shots to be effective, comes to represent.

third annual bowl preview, 2007. (part 2)

and as long as you disappear, we'll just say you were never here.

alamo bowl. san antonio. penn state vs. texas a & m.

penn state thoroughly confuses me as a football team. my gut tells me that they should be able to stop texas a & m's running game and that they should be able to score some points and win this one. but i just don't know what to say about these guys.

take paterno and run?

penn state 24, texas a & m 13.

independence bowl. shreveport. alabama vs. colorado.

both teams have had flashes of brilliance this year.

that's the only nice thing i can say about this game, so i'll stop here.

colorado 31, alabama 23.

armed forces. fort worth. cal vs. air force.

an interesting thing happened along the way to cal's season of brilliance. their qb got hurt, and they just couldn't stop the losing. and so in some sense, i think that this game is completely out of air force's hands, because if cal shows up, this game will be a whitewashing. too much speed, experience, talent, etc.

will cal show up?

cal 38, air force 17.

humanitarian. boise. georgia tech vs. fresno state.

what's ridiculous is that georgia tech has actually played in this game before, namely in 2004, when they obliterated tulsa. since that game, i've been particularly wary of taking wac teams in any game, because i have a tendency to believe that they're not very good.

but nonetheless, i suspect that fresno state will win this game.

fresno state 31, ga. tech 28.

sun bowl. el paso. south florida vs. oregon.

if you had announced this as a bowl matchup a month ago, people might have tabbed this one for the fiesta bowl.

dennis dixon's injury and south florida's defense both let us down. and the football gods were merciless by assigning these two teams to el paso, a place where no fan should have to go for football. oregon hasn't won since dixon's injury, and they wont beat usf either.

usf 27, oregon 10.

music city. nashville. uk vs. fsu.

if florida state is missing 25 players, they shouldn't be able to beat kentucky. too much andre woodson in this one.

uk 35, fsu 17.

insight. tempe. indiana vs. oklahoma state.

neither one of these teams deserves to be in a bowl, particularly indiana, a team that ducked both michigan and ohio state in their big ten schedule. oklahoma state has enough offense to score some points in this one, and i think they'll win this one rather handily.

ok state 41, iu 21.

chick-fil-a peach. atlanta. clemson vs. auburn.

the obvious pick in this one is clemson, a team that sort of peaked toward the end of the season, with an explosive qb and talented running back. so it's instructive to note that auburn shut down two incredibly explosive offenses in arkansas and florida.

this one should be close.

auburn 17, clemson 13.

outback. tampa. wisconsin vs. tennessee.

wisconsin hasn't done anything meaningful all year except for upsetting michigan. tennessee is highly volatile, and rode a win over georgia way further than they should have been allowed to ride it.

so let 'em play on new years day. lol!

tennessee 24, wisconsin 17.

cotton. dallas. missouri vs. arkansas.

this is an absolutely fantastic game. these teams don't like each other at all, the game is in dallas and should be close to sold out, so it should be a fantastic atmosphere. both offenses are explosive. look for chase daniel to exploit the razorbacks' porous defense much more effectively than lsu did. and look for arkansas to run wild.

in a shootout...

missouri 45, arkansas 41.

gator. jacksonville. texas tech vs. virginia.

texas tech really messes coaches up in bowl games.

texas tech 38, virginia 21.

capital one. orlando. michigan vs. florida.

it's trendy to write michigan off for this one, but i think it might be useful to consider the following things: one is that michigan is still a proud team. another is that they are looking for a statement win. and they are defending their conference in this one. never underestimate that. they will be motivated.

and i think that's enough to make this one interesting.

michigan 35, florida 27.

rose bowl. la. usc vs. illinois.

take usc, but this one will be closer than you think.

usc 38, illinois 27.

fiesta. glendale. wvu vs. oklahoma.

i like oklahoma in this one by a bunch of points.

oklahoma 41, wvu 17.

orange. miami. va. tech vs. kansas.

virginia tech looks pretty good right now. kansas can score, but i don't think it will be enough.

vt 31, kansas 20.

international. toronto. rutgers vs. ball state.

lol!

rutgers 38, ball state 7.

gmac. mobile. bowling green vs. tulsa.

the mac's getting shut out in bowls this year.

tulsa 45, bowling green 28.

sugar. new orleans. georgia vs. hawaii.

i think georgia has enough defense in this one.

georgia 41, hawaii 21.

bcs. new orleans. osu vs. lsu.

the big ten will show heart in bowl games this year. they have to. for the sanctity of their conference, they must.

and i believe in tressel to an extent, but the facts are this:

1) this is a home game for lsu.
2) lsu has more offensive talent.
3) todd beckman is starting, as is matt flynn. so low-scoring is possible.

lsu 24, osu 14.

third annual bowl preview, 2007. (part 1)

in a world where there should be no national champion, where teams have underachieved to the point of "re-defining mediocrity," where the only exciting team the whole year went down in a flame of glory with their star qb on espn2, i give you my third annual bowl preview. it's gonna be much shorter, and much more scathing. enjoy.

pointsettia bowl. san diego. navy vs. utah.

this game would be more interesting if anyone cared about either team. is it a home game for navy at san diego?

i like utah in this one.

utah 27, navy 17

new orleans bowl. new orleans. memphis vs. florida atlantic.

why c-usa has any more than three bowl tie-ins is a mystery to me. they have SIX! and memphis lost to ole miss! i honestly think florida atlantic is the best team here. thus, despite not having any justification for this pick whatsoever, i'm taking the hoot owls.

fla. atlantic 38, memphis 35.

papajohns.com bowl. birmingham. southern miss vs. cincinnati.

i talked to a friend who was going to this game. dustin, a southern miss alum, had this to say:
"yeah, it would probably be a more exciting game if we didn't just get done playing these guys every year like three years ago." i couldn't agree more. southern miss should be the favorite team to support in what is nearly a home game. but cincinnati is a better team???

cincy 27, usm 24.

new mexico bowl. albuquerque. new mexico vs. nevada.

new mexico has a pretty good scam going. but nevada apparently has had some very close losses to good teams.

now, here is an interesting thought: why did nebraska fall so far so quickly? a first-blush look at their out-of-conference performance yields this monster win over nevada and that win at wake forest.

since new mexico's star running back isn't playing, i'll take the wolf pack.

nevada 35, new mexico 20.

las vegas bowl. las vegas. ucla vs. byu.

i think we should ban re-matches of lesser games during the year. if byu avenges this loss to ucla, it might be instructive to think of how good byu is on a national level, because here's a team that went undefeated in their conference, whatever the hell that means.

byu 31, ucla 21.

sheraton hawaii bowl. honolulu. boise state vs. east carolina.

this is probably the best example you can find of why the bowl season should be left around. despite the fact that this game is utterly useless, we've just generated an excuse for a bunch of players from east carolina to go to hawaii, a place that probably half of them would never get a chance to visit otherwise. it's the trip of a lifetime, and who cares about the result?

i'm just using this logic to soothe the wounds of the pirates after they get stampeded by boise in this one.

boise 56, ecu 24.

motor city bowl. detroit. purdue vs. central michigan.

here is an open question to the purdue students who read this: did they give away tickets to this one? what was the procedure for going?

this one has the possibility to draw regionally because it isn't that far for fans to go. and i want to invoke rule #1: no repeats of lesser games. in non-bcs games, i think it should be made a rule that the teams haven't played each other.

purdue 45, cmu 22. (same score as before)

holiday bowl. san diego. arizona state vs. texas.

in a perfect world, we would say that arizona state is a great, underlooked team that is exciting to watch. rudy carpenter is jake II, there is a cardiac quality to the team that makes them exciting to watch, and they got screwed by an unfair bcs.

unfortunately, people saw asu play this year, and it's a whole lot more likely that they were lucky, as they were undressed by usc and outplayed by oregon. but here's a nice thought: texas sucks. so some team has to win, and i think it's fair to say that mack brown is not a great big game coach sans vincesanity.

asu 27, texas 23.

champs sports. orlando. bc vs. michigan state.

i am not sure why people are leading me to believe this game will be close just because it is played in a bowl. boston college is surely the best team here, and matt ryan is a legitimate star. look for bc's defense to take control early, and look for a young msu team to be outmatched.

bc 31, msu 7.

texas bowl. houston. tcu vs. houston.

this should draw well, and i think houston's offense will be too much.

houston 35, tcu 24.

emerald. san fran. maryland vs. oregon state.

this bowl has stinker written all over it, but the silver lining to watching this game is the possibility of seeing emerald nuts commercials, which are among the most intelligent commercials shown on tv.

oregon state 14, maryland 9.

meineke. charlotte. uconn vs. wake forest.

this is a mildly interesting matchup, if only for the real possibility that wake forest doesn't believe the uconn punt returner's fair catch signal and lays him out.

no, really, uconn is a bush league program.

wake 20, uconn 10.

liberty bowl. memphis. central florida vs. mississippi state.

at last we come to a game with a plausible storyline: and what's better is the fact that george o'leary got a second chance and is doing something with it. memo to future programs- go hire this guy.

and for sylvester croom to sneak this team into a bowl this year is remarkable.

mississippi state 34, ucf 31.