comments about the ncaa tournament...

failure to remain introspective is the downfall of many useful constructs.


this statement remains true when we consider the ncaa tournament. because this year, the tourney committee failed in many regards.


if we want to just pencil the number one seeds into the sweet 16, we shouldn't have any pretense about it. really, we shouldn't even play the games.

no offense, but putting kansas in omaha makes the game essentially a home game; unlv and kent state wouldn't have much of a chance anyway, but playing the game on the road doesn't help.

north carolina/indiana or north carolina/arkansas might be pretty competitive on a neutral court; however, in raleigh we might as well mail it in. so too with ucla/byu in anaheim: i like byu as much as the next guy, but it's simply not that feasible to think of them winning that game.

in some respects, i don't like this component of the tournament at all: one reason why is that number one seeds are generally pretty close to number twos: tennessee, a number two, beat memphis, a number one; duke, a number two, beat north carolina, a number one; texas beat kansas AND ucla... and, well, you get the point.


but number two seeds don't get the breaks. texas and tennessee get to play in sketchy second round sites: texas faces austin peay and memphis fans, while tennessee has the undesirable scene of louisville and south alabama fans. duke gets to go to d.c. with the prospect of wvu fans, while georgetown can saunter down to raleigh only having to worry about davidson fans and unc fans turning on them.


so why do number one seeds largely get to avoid having their arenas turn on them? it's anybody's guess. ohio state ran into the problem of rupp arena turning on them last year, but they were regarded as a 'weak' number one seed. memphis has sort of the same issue this year, although it's anybody's guess as to why they're a weak number one. here's a dirty secret: memphis is the best second-half team in the country.

let's look at some evidence:

memphis 46, cincinnati 37 (+9, 10)
memphis 33, houston 22 (+11, 9)
memphis 46, gonzaga 41 (+5, 8)
memphis 41, uconn 29 (+12, 11)
memphis 42, georgetown 31 (+11, 14)
memphis 42, arizona 39 (+3, 13)
memphis 38, usc 29 (+9, 4 in ot)
memphis 53, siena 34 (+19, 42)
memphis 38, uab 35 (+3, 2)
*memphis 28, oklahoma 28 (0, 10)
*memphis 27, tennessee 32 (-5, -4)


here, i arbitrarily showed some statistics that suggest that memphis performs extremely well in the second half against good teams: the margin of victory is the second number. even if the game is close at the half, it seems likely that memphis can extend the lead in the second half.


more arbitrary analysis....

if any team is weak among the high seeds, i would bet on stanford, a team that keeps a lot of
games unnecessarily close and could run into problems against teams that are either more explosive or have better guard play, i.e., marquette, kentucky, or cornell. if i could bet on one more team, it might be north carolina, a team that could have serious problems with notre dame.

no, really, give me luke harangody right now over tyler hansborough.

and is this the year of the weak four seeds? washington state and vanderbilt both seem unlikely to beat the #1's in their region, while pitt and uconn play with extremely high variance. i wouldn't be surprised if all four seeds were eliminated before the third round, although i have uconn penciled in pretty strongly.

here are my most likely upsets for each type of matchup (i.e., 5/12, etc.)

16/1: portland state over kansas: big sky champ gets no love, but they could make the game interesting for awhile.
15/2: umbc over georgetown: danger zone game for the hoyas- any small conference team with good guard game could make the game interesting.
14/3: all of these games could be interesting: the 14s are very good. but i'll go with boise state over louisville, if only because of contrasts in style and louisville's propensity to (gulp) not play .
13/4: winthrop over washington state: washington state has trouble putting teams away, which is why i think winthrop has a chance in this one.
12/5: all of them? no, let's go with just one: temple over michigan state.
11/6: st. joe's over oklahoma is a very good bet, if only because st. joe's is pretty hot right now... so too is kansas state over usc, since the game is played in omaha.
10/7: i don't like davidson at all over gonzaga, so let's go with st. mary's over miami, or better yet, usa over butler.
9/8: these games aren't really upsets, but i think three are virtual coin flips: arkansas/indiana, byu/a & m, and kent/unlv.

if i could take one team out of the tournament and put one team in, i would put illinois state in and take villanova out. if i could put one more team in, i'd replace arizona with virginia tech. arizona in at 14 losses is sort of silly, and what exactly does villanova's resume consist of?

final four picks!!! louisville, memphis, ucla, kansas, with memphis winning it.

tournament preview, top 10 seeds.

chat results from conversation with john lorenz.
12:23 AM me: alright, let's go with this strategy: #1's first all the way to #16!!!! John: sounds good
me: nice, i'll give you my #1's: memphis, unc, tennessee, and ucla tennessee looked like crap today against south carolina
12:24 AM John: yeah... but Texas and Duke aren't jumping ahead of Tennessee What if Duke wins ACC... do they replace UNC they'll have 2 of 3 against them
me: yeah i think so
12:25 AM i think texas could jump tennessee if they win big 12 and tennessee loses tomorrow texas beat tennessee head-to-head
John: I say if Duke wins, they're both #1's and Tennessee is out
me: that's probably fair
12:26 AM but if tennessee wins sec tourney they stay #1? John: yeah... they'll be RPI #1... they seem weak, but they have a win over Memphis... so... yeah
12:27 AM me: yeah, they also beat xavier #2's?
12:28 AM John: Duke, Texas, Kansas, Georgetown... pending winning the big east me: yeah, i agree entirely i'll take georgetown even if they don't win
12:29 AM John: Yeah... I'm looking... I'm not seeing anyone that can jump ahead Stanford winning the Pac 10 tourney could make a case
12:30 AM that's about it
me: yeah, suppose so. i like wisconsin, but they kind of blew it last year and i don't think anybody believes in them
John: i don't see anyone riding a big 10 wagon
12:31 AM me: right. big 10's not bad though both michigan state and wisconsin beat texas
John: yeah ok #3's
me: i got stanford, xavier, louisville, and wisconsin
12:33 AM John: wisconsin and stanford are locks at 3 or higher
me: i sort of thought uconn could be a 3, but they also lost first round big east tourney
John: i want to dock xavier and louisville, but I don't see anyone to move up purdue, notre dame, uconn all lost12:34 AM
me: if the committee was worth half a crap they would give butler or drake a 3 or 4 seed butler should get a 3 but i don't think it will happen
12:35 AM John: Drake ahead of Butler... Drake beat butler at Butler me: fair. drake smoked illinois state
12:36 AM i like what butler did out of conference a lot. wins over texas tech, osu, florida state? very nice
12:37 AM John: i'll give you that... but sometimes early wins don't get as much credence as late wins
me: yeah, that's true
12:38 AM #4's?
12:39 AM John: UConn, Drake, Butler, Michigan State
12:40 AM me: i'll take uconn, drake, butler for sure i like notre dame over michigan state or maybe pittsburgh if they go all the way in the big east
12:42 AM John: What if Michigan State beats Wisconsin tomorrow... they've got to be a 4
12:43 AM me: yeah, if michigan state wins i'll give them #4
John: MSU is also 10 spots higher in the RPI than Notre Dame
me: i just dislike michigan state's silly in-conference losses
12:44 AM penn state, iowa, those aren't good teams but notre dame doesn't really have the great wins
John: yeah... but then you've got to penalize drake for losing to Bradley and Missouri State
12:45 AM me: alright, i'll give you michigan state if they get there
12:46 AM John: it's a tossup for the last 4 me: how about the 5's?
John: I think MSU over Texas is going to sway people even if MSU loses
me: they played well against ucla too. and izzo in the tournament is scary
12:49 AM John: 5's: Notre Dame/MSU coinflip, Washington State, Pitt, BYU ? (if they win MWC)
me: i'll take these teams: notre dame, pittsburgh, marquette, and one of the following: clemson (if they beat duke), washington state, or byu
12:50 AM John: I'd take washington state and byu ahead of Marquette
12:51 AM me: i like marquette over washington state i do tend to overrate the big east
12:52 AM John: let's look at the 6's and try to sort some of this out... notre dame and pittsburgh are definitely 5's
12:53 AM me: i agree i suppose washington state is at this point? good pac-10 record, gotta reward that conference
12:54 AM indiana had some play from me, but i don't know if they're the same team John: I think indiana is dropping
12:55 AM Washington St. is a possibility at 4 if they win against Stanford
me: marquette can't be any lower than six
John: definitely
12:56 AM me: washington state i guess is a five at this point, four depending on tonight and i was unaware as to how well byu had played these past few months they win that conference, they're a solid 5
John: Solid
12:57 AM me: but if clemson beats duke, i think we could see them at 5
12:58 AM John: 6's: Marquette, West Virginia, Clemson, ??
12:59 AM me: so at 6: marquette, clemson, vandy, and i'll take purdue
John: good no arguments
me: i think wvu may be one seed too high
1:00 AM i like them at 7 i also like mississippi state as a 7 at this point
John: purdue is 47 in the RPI
me: yeah, but it's tough to overlook their big 10 record and the out-of-conference win over louisville i think
1:01 AM John: it's definitely an up and down schedule
me: the rpi is so confusing to me
John: that loss to Illinois is going to drop them to a 7 I think
1:02 AM me: it's hard for me to overlook that big 10 record though
1:03 AM and they swept wisconsin
John: ok.. they should be a 6
me: yeah, never know what these tourney guys think
1:04 AM any way vandy slides to a 7?
John: vandy'll be higher if anything i think they're a 61:05 AM me: yeah, i'll put them in at 6
John: 7's: WVU, Kent State (if they win the MAC), then...
1:06 AM me: i take usc and gonzaga i think usc is too good to be anything less than 7 it's one of these qualitative things, i don't really have any basis for it
1:07 AM John: ok USC is a 7
me: i would replace kent state with indiana
John: indiana is a different team the committee considers this stuff
1:08 AM case in point: UC, unanimous #1 team in the country with Kenyon Martin - KMart gets hurt, they're a 2 seed
me: yeah, but if they hadn't had that miracle loss today they would be in the semi's and they still have RPI of 22
1:09 AM what about gonzaga?
John: I think Gonzaga's gonna be an 8 as will indiana
1:10 AM me: and kent state (i think)
John: it starts to get muddled here... you've got to think about Oklahoma too
1:11 AM me: what about wvu, oklahoma, usc, and mississippi state? at 7?
1:12 AM John: Miss. St. is at 7 if they beat KY
1:13 AM me: oklahoma could still win something in the big12 against kansas too, right?
John: yeah... true
1:14 AM I'll leave MSU where they are... 'cuz I think they will be Ky, whose kind of been screwed by the weather 8's are the leftovers from 7's? Indiana, Gonzaga, Kent State, and Miami or Davidson I'll go Davidson... give some mid major love
me: so 8's: indiana, gonzaga, kent state, and i like miami at this spot
1:15 AM we can't agree on anything i guess 8/9 doesn't matter too much i'll give you davidson at 8 miami can be a 9
1:17 AM John: 9's: Miami, WKU, UK...
me: and... here we go: st. mary's wins over gonzaga, oregon, and drake
John: St. Mary's it is...
1:18 AM can I sway WKU for Kent State... looking it over... I'm feeling less and less confident in Kent State
me: i give kent state the edge i think wku is actually like in the 11/12 range John: yeah... Kent St. is better
1:19 AM naw... conference championships carry weight sun belt not equal to terrible this year?
me: hard to say
1:20 AM John: they're a 9/10 at the lowest
me: i'll leave wku at 9 who at 10: arkansas for sure
John: we're starting to delve in to bubble team territory here anyway
me: south alabama (probably)
1:21 AM John: arkansas takes WKU's spot if they win another game for sure
me: that's right arkansas: way to play your way in!
John: hell... if they win another... that's over Tenn... they're a 7 probably 7/8 me: that's what they do every year
1:22 AM John: anyway... arkansas... to be revisted... I'll take 'em at 9 over WKU... even without another win
me: alright, at 9 we are with miami, arkansas, kentucky, and st. mary's at 10 we have wku for sure
1:23 AM probably unlv too?
1:24 AM John: yeah... UNLV could probably be higher... if Kentucky loses, they might be a 9
me: i vote to put unlv where they're at
1:25 AM John: But, 10 for sure... but I won't be surprised to see them higher
me: i don't think the mwc is a whole lot better than a mid-major
1:26 AM yeah, neither would i is south alabama at 10?
1:27 AM John: they're a tough case... outside the sun belt tourney I'd put them maybe 2 seeds higher than WKU... but losing not winning hurts them
1:28 AM they're in
me: yeah. i feel like it's tough not to put them in, and why not put them here
1:29 AM i think texas a & m (gulp) has to go here too
1:30 AM John: ok a&m at 10
me: they're like 23-9 right now
John: yeah so at 10: unlv, South Alabama, a&m
1:31 AM me: where does kansas state fall in your thinking?
John: a 10 sounds about right
1:32 AM i'm running out of at large teams that deserve to make it
me: i'm cool with these 10 seeds

non-sports post- BOOK TALK!!!!!

one of the great tragedies of the american education system is that there is virtually no synergy between english and history classes in high schools. students who take u.s. history generally memorize a chronologically presented bucket of facts. i suppose that's the best way to avoid confusion; if people aren't going to learn anything meaningful anyway, then there's no reason to confuse them while they're in that process. let's not make that move.

so if you're lucky in this country, you get to read books like richard wright's native son, or maybe you got to read some steinbeck, or maybe you got to read something by upton sinclair. but chances are that your english teachers don't care to read books that are dominated by setting. i suppose that's fair; after all, we don't teach philosophy, latin, or any of the other things that make for well-rounded individuals, so literature classes really have to cover a lot of ground. but the whole process seems sad.

so when i finally got around to reading pat frank's alas, babylon!, i was 24. my memory of what happened in the 1940s and 1950s is now limited to a small sequence of historical facts that are loosely stored chronologically.


"let me see. there's world war II, patton, mussolini, yalta, the marshall plan, eisenhower and the cold war, baby boom, g.i. bill,"


i don't know anything about that time period. but after reading alas, babylon!, i learned something.


frank (or harry hart, depending on pseudonym fondness) writes of a u.s. that has been devastated by nuclear war. almost all of the major cities are destroyed by nuclear bombs, and thus there are areas in the country that suffer from nuclear fallout, which, as frank describes, is just as deadly as the bombs themselves.

to illustrate how tricky it would be to survive in such a u.s., frank creates a world in central florida where, despite bombings of orlando, tampa, miami, and jacksonville, there is no nuclear fallout (the characters keep referring to this as a 'lucky' event), and there is a relatively acceptable climate for survival. but survival is tough enough: since food won't keep (there's no electricity) and since food is scarce (agriculture isn't really going very well), people have to take measures to survive. as you might suppose, the measures are stark.

and of course, the book is made better by the enrichment of characters. self-actualization is a goal of almost every author, so we find the lead character, randy, a predictably flawed guy, in a situation where he has all kinds of information about the future but only a short time to act on it. helen, the wife of his brother mark, and her two kids are sent to live with randy, and he's not half the man that his brother is at the start, though at the end, he's pretty damn close.

so we enter a world, paralyzed by fear and desecration, where flawed characters need to survive and need to resurrect their survival skills from the past. danger is at every turn: whether it is radiation-filled jewelery, renegade bandits, or just random chance, we learn a little bit about what life might be like if things went south in this country quickly. and chances are, by reading this book, we might learn a little bit about our history too.

and if we're real lucky, we might just learn a little something about what it really means to survive.