tournament preview, top 10 seeds.

chat results from conversation with john lorenz.
12:23 AM me: alright, let's go with this strategy: #1's first all the way to #16!!!! John: sounds good
me: nice, i'll give you my #1's: memphis, unc, tennessee, and ucla tennessee looked like crap today against south carolina
12:24 AM John: yeah... but Texas and Duke aren't jumping ahead of Tennessee What if Duke wins ACC... do they replace UNC they'll have 2 of 3 against them
me: yeah i think so
12:25 AM i think texas could jump tennessee if they win big 12 and tennessee loses tomorrow texas beat tennessee head-to-head
John: I say if Duke wins, they're both #1's and Tennessee is out
me: that's probably fair
12:26 AM but if tennessee wins sec tourney they stay #1? John: yeah... they'll be RPI #1... they seem weak, but they have a win over Memphis... so... yeah
12:27 AM me: yeah, they also beat xavier #2's?
12:28 AM John: Duke, Texas, Kansas, Georgetown... pending winning the big east me: yeah, i agree entirely i'll take georgetown even if they don't win
12:29 AM John: Yeah... I'm looking... I'm not seeing anyone that can jump ahead Stanford winning the Pac 10 tourney could make a case
12:30 AM that's about it
me: yeah, suppose so. i like wisconsin, but they kind of blew it last year and i don't think anybody believes in them
John: i don't see anyone riding a big 10 wagon
12:31 AM me: right. big 10's not bad though both michigan state and wisconsin beat texas
John: yeah ok #3's
me: i got stanford, xavier, louisville, and wisconsin
12:33 AM John: wisconsin and stanford are locks at 3 or higher
me: i sort of thought uconn could be a 3, but they also lost first round big east tourney
John: i want to dock xavier and louisville, but I don't see anyone to move up purdue, notre dame, uconn all lost12:34 AM
me: if the committee was worth half a crap they would give butler or drake a 3 or 4 seed butler should get a 3 but i don't think it will happen
12:35 AM John: Drake ahead of Butler... Drake beat butler at Butler me: fair. drake smoked illinois state
12:36 AM i like what butler did out of conference a lot. wins over texas tech, osu, florida state? very nice
12:37 AM John: i'll give you that... but sometimes early wins don't get as much credence as late wins
me: yeah, that's true
12:38 AM #4's?
12:39 AM John: UConn, Drake, Butler, Michigan State
12:40 AM me: i'll take uconn, drake, butler for sure i like notre dame over michigan state or maybe pittsburgh if they go all the way in the big east
12:42 AM John: What if Michigan State beats Wisconsin tomorrow... they've got to be a 4
12:43 AM me: yeah, if michigan state wins i'll give them #4
John: MSU is also 10 spots higher in the RPI than Notre Dame
me: i just dislike michigan state's silly in-conference losses
12:44 AM penn state, iowa, those aren't good teams but notre dame doesn't really have the great wins
John: yeah... but then you've got to penalize drake for losing to Bradley and Missouri State
12:45 AM me: alright, i'll give you michigan state if they get there
12:46 AM John: it's a tossup for the last 4 me: how about the 5's?
John: I think MSU over Texas is going to sway people even if MSU loses
me: they played well against ucla too. and izzo in the tournament is scary
12:49 AM John: 5's: Notre Dame/MSU coinflip, Washington State, Pitt, BYU ? (if they win MWC)
me: i'll take these teams: notre dame, pittsburgh, marquette, and one of the following: clemson (if they beat duke), washington state, or byu
12:50 AM John: I'd take washington state and byu ahead of Marquette
12:51 AM me: i like marquette over washington state i do tend to overrate the big east
12:52 AM John: let's look at the 6's and try to sort some of this out... notre dame and pittsburgh are definitely 5's
12:53 AM me: i agree i suppose washington state is at this point? good pac-10 record, gotta reward that conference
12:54 AM indiana had some play from me, but i don't know if they're the same team John: I think indiana is dropping
12:55 AM Washington St. is a possibility at 4 if they win against Stanford
me: marquette can't be any lower than six
John: definitely
12:56 AM me: washington state i guess is a five at this point, four depending on tonight and i was unaware as to how well byu had played these past few months they win that conference, they're a solid 5
John: Solid
12:57 AM me: but if clemson beats duke, i think we could see them at 5
12:58 AM John: 6's: Marquette, West Virginia, Clemson, ??
12:59 AM me: so at 6: marquette, clemson, vandy, and i'll take purdue
John: good no arguments
me: i think wvu may be one seed too high
1:00 AM i like them at 7 i also like mississippi state as a 7 at this point
John: purdue is 47 in the RPI
me: yeah, but it's tough to overlook their big 10 record and the out-of-conference win over louisville i think
1:01 AM John: it's definitely an up and down schedule
me: the rpi is so confusing to me
John: that loss to Illinois is going to drop them to a 7 I think
1:02 AM me: it's hard for me to overlook that big 10 record though
1:03 AM and they swept wisconsin
John: ok.. they should be a 6
me: yeah, never know what these tourney guys think
1:04 AM any way vandy slides to a 7?
John: vandy'll be higher if anything i think they're a 61:05 AM me: yeah, i'll put them in at 6
John: 7's: WVU, Kent State (if they win the MAC), then...
1:06 AM me: i take usc and gonzaga i think usc is too good to be anything less than 7 it's one of these qualitative things, i don't really have any basis for it
1:07 AM John: ok USC is a 7
me: i would replace kent state with indiana
John: indiana is a different team the committee considers this stuff
1:08 AM case in point: UC, unanimous #1 team in the country with Kenyon Martin - KMart gets hurt, they're a 2 seed
me: yeah, but if they hadn't had that miracle loss today they would be in the semi's and they still have RPI of 22
1:09 AM what about gonzaga?
John: I think Gonzaga's gonna be an 8 as will indiana
1:10 AM me: and kent state (i think)
John: it starts to get muddled here... you've got to think about Oklahoma too
1:11 AM me: what about wvu, oklahoma, usc, and mississippi state? at 7?
1:12 AM John: Miss. St. is at 7 if they beat KY
1:13 AM me: oklahoma could still win something in the big12 against kansas too, right?
John: yeah... true
1:14 AM I'll leave MSU where they are... 'cuz I think they will be Ky, whose kind of been screwed by the weather 8's are the leftovers from 7's? Indiana, Gonzaga, Kent State, and Miami or Davidson I'll go Davidson... give some mid major love
me: so 8's: indiana, gonzaga, kent state, and i like miami at this spot
1:15 AM we can't agree on anything i guess 8/9 doesn't matter too much i'll give you davidson at 8 miami can be a 9
1:17 AM John: 9's: Miami, WKU, UK...
me: and... here we go: st. mary's wins over gonzaga, oregon, and drake
John: St. Mary's it is...
1:18 AM can I sway WKU for Kent State... looking it over... I'm feeling less and less confident in Kent State
me: i give kent state the edge i think wku is actually like in the 11/12 range John: yeah... Kent St. is better
1:19 AM naw... conference championships carry weight sun belt not equal to terrible this year?
me: hard to say
1:20 AM John: they're a 9/10 at the lowest
me: i'll leave wku at 9 who at 10: arkansas for sure
John: we're starting to delve in to bubble team territory here anyway
me: south alabama (probably)
1:21 AM John: arkansas takes WKU's spot if they win another game for sure
me: that's right arkansas: way to play your way in!
John: hell... if they win another... that's over Tenn... they're a 7 probably 7/8 me: that's what they do every year
1:22 AM John: anyway... arkansas... to be revisted... I'll take 'em at 9 over WKU... even without another win
me: alright, at 9 we are with miami, arkansas, kentucky, and st. mary's at 10 we have wku for sure
1:23 AM probably unlv too?
1:24 AM John: yeah... UNLV could probably be higher... if Kentucky loses, they might be a 9
me: i vote to put unlv where they're at
1:25 AM John: But, 10 for sure... but I won't be surprised to see them higher
me: i don't think the mwc is a whole lot better than a mid-major
1:26 AM yeah, neither would i is south alabama at 10?
1:27 AM John: they're a tough case... outside the sun belt tourney I'd put them maybe 2 seeds higher than WKU... but losing not winning hurts them
1:28 AM they're in
me: yeah. i feel like it's tough not to put them in, and why not put them here
1:29 AM i think texas a & m (gulp) has to go here too
1:30 AM John: ok a&m at 10
me: they're like 23-9 right now
John: yeah so at 10: unlv, South Alabama, a&m
1:31 AM me: where does kansas state fall in your thinking?
John: a 10 sounds about right
1:32 AM i'm running out of at large teams that deserve to make it
me: i'm cool with these 10 seeds