Handicapping the Wild Card Races...
As suggested by John, I will now handicap the Wild Card races.
Looking at the AL, we should probably consider every team that is near or above .500. This includes the Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians, Oakland A's, and Detroit Tigers.
We can separate these teams into three categories: "not right now," "maybe but need help," and "should be there down the stretch."
Not Right Now
Oakland A's (41-43). Look, what Oakland's staff is capable of is not in question here. I have no doubt that Zito, Harden, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, and Kirk Saarloos will continue to pitch very well for the A's. But taking on Jason Kendall's contract was borderline unjustifiable at the time and continues to be an albatross for Beane and Co. Kendall has an OPS of .667, which isn't good. He also has... no home runs!
If you're going to be an everyday starter in the majors, you should probably be more productive than Kendall. You could even make the case that an everyday starter should be more productive than half of the A's starters. The A's will not make the playoffs with the lineup they have now, even with the return of Bobby Crosby.
Detroit Tigers (40-43). The Tigers have been hindered by injuries to Magglio Ordonez and others; yet there is finally some room for optimism in the Motor City. For one thing, Jeremy Bonderman is looking like a future All-Star; for another, their rotation is holding up reasonably well. Throw in the sharp acquistion of Placido Polanco, and the Tigers look shrewd, for once.
There are still too many holes to consider this team for the wildcard. These holes include a general lack of power- hopefully Magglio will take care of that- and some uncertainty with the rotation (can Nate Robertson and Wil Ledezma really be expected to hold down 4 and 5?). Unfortunately, these holes are significant enough to make the Tigers somewhat less than competitive at times still.
This concludes the "not yet" portion of the segment. Let's move on to the fringe teams.
"Maybe... my heart's been breaking..."
Toronto Blue Jays (44-41). You have to love the Blue Jays, a team nobody knows anything about. Yet this team is only four and a half outside of the AL East lead. We know Roy Halladay might be the best pitcher in the AL... we've heard that Shea Hillenbrand is an All-Star... and of course, there's Vernon Wells, who has been widely considered as a disappointment despite decent power numbers.
What you may not know is that the Blue Jay bullpen has been very good, that they have the probable Rookie of the Year in Aaron Hill (a stud third baseman), and a bunch of very capable if unspectacular position players, including Russ Adams, Reed Johnson, Frank Catalanotto, Alexis Rios, and others. They also have major holes in the rotation, as Ted Lilly, David Bush and Josh Towers have been fairly inconsistent. It's possible that these Jays could hang around for awhile, and if they do, it could be a nightmare scenario for the AL East teams down the stretch.
Cleveland Indians (46-37). It's been fashionable to tout the Indians as wild-card favorites, but their lineup has been slumping the whole year (especially Casey Blake and Aaron Boone) and their rotation has been shaky at times. However, you can't overlook Travis Hafner as a stabilizing force in the lineup, and having Arthur Rhodes and Bob Wickman at the end of games is pretty good.
Peter Gammons suggests the Indians may not want to trade to be in this pennant race because of all the talent they have in the coming years. With players like Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez around, it's hard to argue with this logic. The Indians may be around for the stretch run, but it could be that they're looking toward next year to hit it big.
Baltimore Orioles (45-39). The Orioles could be on the ropes; they started out hot but have been caught by the Red Sox. There aren't any questions about whether or not the Orioles can hit- with Tejada, Melvin Mora, the amazing Brian Roberts, and even the ageless Rafael Palmeiro, the Orioles will be able to stay in a lot of games.
But the Achilles has been their pitching. Since Erik Bedard got injured, their performance has been quite poor. None of the Orioles' starters have ERAs under 4, with the timeless Bruce Chen as the most consistent of the group. Additionally, Jorge Julio has been iffy, and Steve Kline has not been the same since he left St. Louis. If the Orioles don't get better pitching, their chances are through.
Should Be There for the Stretch
Texas Rangers (43-40). The Rangers are similar to the Orioles, except that their hitting is even better and their pitching could be worse. Kenny Rogers's implosion may have seriously cost Texas their chance to win the Wild-Card, and would be more serious if the Rangers' lineup didn't always have the possibility of punishing a team into submission.
Chris Young has been a surprise for the Rangers (apparently, he turned down a two-year deal to play basketball in the NBA with Sacramento to play baseball), as the 6-10 pitcher is 8-5 with a 3.80 ERA. However, he has been among the only surprises; Ryan Drese was released in June, and their bullpen has a tough time keeping leads. Like almost every year, the Rangers find themselves about two pitchers short.
New York Yankees (44-39). Say what you will about the Yankees, but this team isn't too far away from figuring it all out and chasing down the Sox. Randy Johnson will be good before the year is up; Chien-Mien Wang and Mike Mussina already are. And I think it's a little early to give up on Carl Pavano.
Still, the bullpen has been shaky except for Gordon and Rivera, who, to his credit, has been almost unhittable since the beginning of the year. The guy has an 0.83 ERA, he's still the best closer ever. I said that. And I won't take it back. You can just remember all the World Series games where the NL team knew they had no chance after 7 innings; or the times when Joe Torre gave Rivera the rare two-inning save. Rivera is still one of the few closers who can pitch any number of innings; he used to be a great setup, long relief guy for John Wetteland, a star in his own right.
The Yankees will probably move to get a new center fielder, giving up too much and getting too little. They don't have a good grasp on contracts anymore, and will eventually die out due to inability to gather together a team. But this isn't necessarily the year to count them out, and with all that talent they have to be there at the end.
Minnesota Twins (46-37). This is still my wild-card favorite. I'm biased, as the Twins are my favorite team. But it's pretty likely that the Twins have 1) the best bullpen, top to bottom, in baseball, 2) a rotation that has the fewest holes of any contender other than Oakland, 3) a decent outfield, and 4) the possibility of acquiring one more player.
What should bother Minnesota fans is the inconsistency of their team. The Twins have to work out their inconsistencies before playing the Chicago White Sox for what seems like a dozen games down the stretch. Additionally, players like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau will have to step up offensively, and a new third baseman might be necessary.
Wow, this is a lot of text. I think I'll save the NL for later; there aren't as many teams, and I'm not as interested.
Mike
Looking at the AL, we should probably consider every team that is near or above .500. This includes the Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians, Oakland A's, and Detroit Tigers.
We can separate these teams into three categories: "not right now," "maybe but need help," and "should be there down the stretch."
Not Right Now
Oakland A's (41-43). Look, what Oakland's staff is capable of is not in question here. I have no doubt that Zito, Harden, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, and Kirk Saarloos will continue to pitch very well for the A's. But taking on Jason Kendall's contract was borderline unjustifiable at the time and continues to be an albatross for Beane and Co. Kendall has an OPS of .667, which isn't good. He also has... no home runs!
If you're going to be an everyday starter in the majors, you should probably be more productive than Kendall. You could even make the case that an everyday starter should be more productive than half of the A's starters. The A's will not make the playoffs with the lineup they have now, even with the return of Bobby Crosby.
Detroit Tigers (40-43). The Tigers have been hindered by injuries to Magglio Ordonez and others; yet there is finally some room for optimism in the Motor City. For one thing, Jeremy Bonderman is looking like a future All-Star; for another, their rotation is holding up reasonably well. Throw in the sharp acquistion of Placido Polanco, and the Tigers look shrewd, for once.
There are still too many holes to consider this team for the wildcard. These holes include a general lack of power- hopefully Magglio will take care of that- and some uncertainty with the rotation (can Nate Robertson and Wil Ledezma really be expected to hold down 4 and 5?). Unfortunately, these holes are significant enough to make the Tigers somewhat less than competitive at times still.
This concludes the "not yet" portion of the segment. Let's move on to the fringe teams.
"Maybe... my heart's been breaking..."
Toronto Blue Jays (44-41). You have to love the Blue Jays, a team nobody knows anything about. Yet this team is only four and a half outside of the AL East lead. We know Roy Halladay might be the best pitcher in the AL... we've heard that Shea Hillenbrand is an All-Star... and of course, there's Vernon Wells, who has been widely considered as a disappointment despite decent power numbers.
What you may not know is that the Blue Jay bullpen has been very good, that they have the probable Rookie of the Year in Aaron Hill (a stud third baseman), and a bunch of very capable if unspectacular position players, including Russ Adams, Reed Johnson, Frank Catalanotto, Alexis Rios, and others. They also have major holes in the rotation, as Ted Lilly, David Bush and Josh Towers have been fairly inconsistent. It's possible that these Jays could hang around for awhile, and if they do, it could be a nightmare scenario for the AL East teams down the stretch.
Cleveland Indians (46-37). It's been fashionable to tout the Indians as wild-card favorites, but their lineup has been slumping the whole year (especially Casey Blake and Aaron Boone) and their rotation has been shaky at times. However, you can't overlook Travis Hafner as a stabilizing force in the lineup, and having Arthur Rhodes and Bob Wickman at the end of games is pretty good.
Peter Gammons suggests the Indians may not want to trade to be in this pennant race because of all the talent they have in the coming years. With players like Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez around, it's hard to argue with this logic. The Indians may be around for the stretch run, but it could be that they're looking toward next year to hit it big.
Baltimore Orioles (45-39). The Orioles could be on the ropes; they started out hot but have been caught by the Red Sox. There aren't any questions about whether or not the Orioles can hit- with Tejada, Melvin Mora, the amazing Brian Roberts, and even the ageless Rafael Palmeiro, the Orioles will be able to stay in a lot of games.
But the Achilles has been their pitching. Since Erik Bedard got injured, their performance has been quite poor. None of the Orioles' starters have ERAs under 4, with the timeless Bruce Chen as the most consistent of the group. Additionally, Jorge Julio has been iffy, and Steve Kline has not been the same since he left St. Louis. If the Orioles don't get better pitching, their chances are through.
Should Be There for the Stretch
Texas Rangers (43-40). The Rangers are similar to the Orioles, except that their hitting is even better and their pitching could be worse. Kenny Rogers's implosion may have seriously cost Texas their chance to win the Wild-Card, and would be more serious if the Rangers' lineup didn't always have the possibility of punishing a team into submission.
Chris Young has been a surprise for the Rangers (apparently, he turned down a two-year deal to play basketball in the NBA with Sacramento to play baseball), as the 6-10 pitcher is 8-5 with a 3.80 ERA. However, he has been among the only surprises; Ryan Drese was released in June, and their bullpen has a tough time keeping leads. Like almost every year, the Rangers find themselves about two pitchers short.
New York Yankees (44-39). Say what you will about the Yankees, but this team isn't too far away from figuring it all out and chasing down the Sox. Randy Johnson will be good before the year is up; Chien-Mien Wang and Mike Mussina already are. And I think it's a little early to give up on Carl Pavano.
Still, the bullpen has been shaky except for Gordon and Rivera, who, to his credit, has been almost unhittable since the beginning of the year. The guy has an 0.83 ERA, he's still the best closer ever. I said that. And I won't take it back. You can just remember all the World Series games where the NL team knew they had no chance after 7 innings; or the times when Joe Torre gave Rivera the rare two-inning save. Rivera is still one of the few closers who can pitch any number of innings; he used to be a great setup, long relief guy for John Wetteland, a star in his own right.
The Yankees will probably move to get a new center fielder, giving up too much and getting too little. They don't have a good grasp on contracts anymore, and will eventually die out due to inability to gather together a team. But this isn't necessarily the year to count them out, and with all that talent they have to be there at the end.
Minnesota Twins (46-37). This is still my wild-card favorite. I'm biased, as the Twins are my favorite team. But it's pretty likely that the Twins have 1) the best bullpen, top to bottom, in baseball, 2) a rotation that has the fewest holes of any contender other than Oakland, 3) a decent outfield, and 4) the possibility of acquiring one more player.
What should bother Minnesota fans is the inconsistency of their team. The Twins have to work out their inconsistencies before playing the Chicago White Sox for what seems like a dozen games down the stretch. Additionally, players like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau will have to step up offensively, and a new third baseman might be necessary.
Wow, this is a lot of text. I think I'll save the NL for later; there aren't as many teams, and I'm not as interested.
Mike
posted by mike at 7:46 AM
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