NL Wild Card Preview...
It is a little bit imprecise to predict the NL Wild Card; the NL East is so evenly matched that it alone could be a column in and of itself. However, we'll try to figure out who's a'contendin' and who's a'pretendin' out in the league where pitchers have to defend their actions at the plate.
Not Right Away...
Milwaukee Brewers (42-46)
Milwaukee is in the process of recovering from the dark times, namely the mid-90s, late-90s, and, well, half of this decade. They have exciting talent, including Rickie Weeks, who will be an All-Star, Prince Fielder, who has a lot of power, and Jose Capellan, the centerpiece of the Danny Kolb deal (back when that deal could have had a center piece). Now, the Brewers are moving forward, and they have a number of good players to do it with.
As for this year, the pitching staff has been good but not great, and the hitting has its holes. Though Brady Clark, Lyle Overbay, Bill Hall, and Geoff Jenkins have been good, and Carlos Lee has been great, the lineup is still missing key hitters at key positions. As it doesn't appear that the Brewers are in the market for a new slugger, we'll have to wait until next year to see if this talent can materialize.
Living on the Fringe...
New York Mets (44-44)
Give Omar Minaya credit. If he had managed to sign Carlos Delgado in the offseason, his transformation would have been complete, and this team would probably be an NL East contender. However, for the very first time since their World Series appearance, the Mets are in it to win it. Led by Pedro Martinez, one of the greats of our generation, and the surprising resurgence of Cliff Floyd, New York has held its own in a very tough NL East race.
What has been most surprising is the lack of production from one of my favorite players, Carlos Beltran. Signed to a gaudy deal at the start of the year, Beltran has neither shown the power nor the speed that had teams lusting after him during free agency. If Beltran has a stellar second half, the Mets could be major players in the race.
Similarly, the Mets still have some remnants of the pre-Minaya era, including the contract of Tom Glavine, who has struggled after having a pretty good season last year (wins/losses aside). However, Martinez has given confidence to players like Kris Benson, who no longer feel the pressure of having to go out and win every start. This confidence has made the Mets staff markedly more consistent then last year, although progress needs to be made.
Philadelphia Phillies (45-44)
This team has no legitimate reason to be on the fringe, except for the fact that Jim Thome is having the worst season of his career. Well, we might also throw in the shaky bullpen and the fact that the team's players don't seem to like each other much. Nevertheless, the Phillies have stuck around due to solid pitching from Cory Lidle, Brett Myers' ability to turn the corner, and Pat Burrell's ability to stop sulking and start hitting for power again.
The Phillies have been blessed with one of the best hitters in baseball, Bobby Abreu. Abreu's consistent performance was finally rewarded this year with an election for All-Star starter. With the improved performances from Burrell, Myers, and Utley, the Phillies should be strong contenders. However, dissension from in between (read some of Billy Wagner's comments) and the lack of one more quality starter could keep this team from the playoffs.
Chicago Cubs (43-44)
We now turn our attention to America's team, the Chicago Cubs. Blessed with pitching riches, the Cubs seemed poised to be a major force for the rest of the decade in 2003, when they came within a game of the World Series. Now, of course, it is 2005, and there is inexplicable mediocrity in the Chi-Town. What gives?
Well, what gives is the fact that other than Derrek Lee, the Cubs' offense has been anemic. Lee is the only reason that Chicago has a chance at the playoffs, as he is having an unbelievable year. His stats deviate from the norm so much, in fact, that prognisticators are literally counting down the days until he returns back to Earth. However, given Lee's talent, don't bank on this happening. Scouts have thought this could happen for awhile. His power surge reminds me a little bit of Sosa's surge in 1998- although his demeanor (and the times) are far different.
If the Cubs' pitching decides to resume its dominance (with Maddux, Prior, Wood, and Zambrano you would think they could have a winning record) and they trade for some hitting and their bullpen holds up and... well, you get the idea. My guess is that this is another year of second-guessing and what-ifs for Cubs fans, but hey, that's why they play the game.
P.S. Does sending down Corey Patterson really solve their problems? I doubt it.
The Contenders.
Florida Marlins (44-42)
One of the great mysteries in baseball is why the Marlins aren't a better team. They have the experience, the starting rotation, and even two very good power hitters. The D-Train could start the All-Star game. Yet the Marlins have been around .500 for most of the year, and nobody is quite certain why. But here is what we do know:
1) The Marlins have a terrible fifth starter.
Al Leiter is having a year that could make a lot of players retire. His ERA is around 7 in a ballpark that should at least kind of benefit pitchers. He has averaged less than five innings a start, and reminds us not of the bulldog, World-Series pitcher of the 90s.
2) Mike Lowell and Juan Pierre are struggling. Lowell's struggles are immense and hard to explain. It has been enough to warrant trade rumors, and the Marlins are now in the market at third, a place they never thought they would need help. Additionally, Pierre's OBP is down, and the power hitters (Cabrera and Delgado) haven't been able to knock in the batters.
3) The bullpen is shaky. With the exception of Todd Jones, nobody has been great. Guillermo Mota was supposed to be the closer, but he won't be given that opportunity any longer, partially due to ineffectiveness, and partially due to a fight with Jack McKeon.
Despite these problems, it's hard to overlook Florida's talent, and the Marlins (like the Yankees) should be in it due to talent alone.
Houston Astros (44-43)
This team was horrible and shopping its players a month ago. But Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt have pitched so well that eventually even the meager run support the Astros provide is enough to win games. And winning is what the Astros have been doing, as Lance Berkman has come back and stabilized the lineup (sort of), Morgan Ensberg has returned to form, and Oswalt, Clemens and Lidge have been lights out.
Here is why the Astros are major contenders: they are almost guaranteed a quality start three out of four games in a series. Only a handful of other teams can claim that. Andy Pettite has been a hard-luck pitcher this year, but his ERA is still only 3.09. The dominance of their starters is leading to results that are similar to what is going on in Washington, and if Houston happens to pick up another bat down the stretch, this team could be really tough.
Atlanta Braves (50-39)
This team is perhaps the best testament to Bobby Cox's greatness as a manager. Confronted with a myriad of injuries, Cox and the Braves have decided to call up pretty much the entirety of their farm system, including... Wilson Betemit, Andy Marte, Kelly Johnson, Pete Orr, Jeff Francoeur, Kyle Davies, Bryan McCann, Brayan Pena, and Ryan Langerhans.
These players have been good replacements, and will inevitably push most of Atlanta's current starters out. However, nobody knew they would be good this quickly, and Atlanta has won many games this year because of that fact. The fact that Andruw Jones is leading MLB in home runs hasn't hurt either.
The real question is if this spot describing Atlanta's wild-card chances shouldn't have gone to the Nationals. But that's another question for another day. And why are there no NL West teams on this list? Well, you can read last week's column for that.
I'm out...
Mike
Not Right Away...
Milwaukee Brewers (42-46)
Milwaukee is in the process of recovering from the dark times, namely the mid-90s, late-90s, and, well, half of this decade. They have exciting talent, including Rickie Weeks, who will be an All-Star, Prince Fielder, who has a lot of power, and Jose Capellan, the centerpiece of the Danny Kolb deal (back when that deal could have had a center piece). Now, the Brewers are moving forward, and they have a number of good players to do it with.
As for this year, the pitching staff has been good but not great, and the hitting has its holes. Though Brady Clark, Lyle Overbay, Bill Hall, and Geoff Jenkins have been good, and Carlos Lee has been great, the lineup is still missing key hitters at key positions. As it doesn't appear that the Brewers are in the market for a new slugger, we'll have to wait until next year to see if this talent can materialize.
Living on the Fringe...
New York Mets (44-44)
Give Omar Minaya credit. If he had managed to sign Carlos Delgado in the offseason, his transformation would have been complete, and this team would probably be an NL East contender. However, for the very first time since their World Series appearance, the Mets are in it to win it. Led by Pedro Martinez, one of the greats of our generation, and the surprising resurgence of Cliff Floyd, New York has held its own in a very tough NL East race.
What has been most surprising is the lack of production from one of my favorite players, Carlos Beltran. Signed to a gaudy deal at the start of the year, Beltran has neither shown the power nor the speed that had teams lusting after him during free agency. If Beltran has a stellar second half, the Mets could be major players in the race.
Similarly, the Mets still have some remnants of the pre-Minaya era, including the contract of Tom Glavine, who has struggled after having a pretty good season last year (wins/losses aside). However, Martinez has given confidence to players like Kris Benson, who no longer feel the pressure of having to go out and win every start. This confidence has made the Mets staff markedly more consistent then last year, although progress needs to be made.
Philadelphia Phillies (45-44)
This team has no legitimate reason to be on the fringe, except for the fact that Jim Thome is having the worst season of his career. Well, we might also throw in the shaky bullpen and the fact that the team's players don't seem to like each other much. Nevertheless, the Phillies have stuck around due to solid pitching from Cory Lidle, Brett Myers' ability to turn the corner, and Pat Burrell's ability to stop sulking and start hitting for power again.
The Phillies have been blessed with one of the best hitters in baseball, Bobby Abreu. Abreu's consistent performance was finally rewarded this year with an election for All-Star starter. With the improved performances from Burrell, Myers, and Utley, the Phillies should be strong contenders. However, dissension from in between (read some of Billy Wagner's comments) and the lack of one more quality starter could keep this team from the playoffs.
Chicago Cubs (43-44)
We now turn our attention to America's team, the Chicago Cubs. Blessed with pitching riches, the Cubs seemed poised to be a major force for the rest of the decade in 2003, when they came within a game of the World Series. Now, of course, it is 2005, and there is inexplicable mediocrity in the Chi-Town. What gives?
Well, what gives is the fact that other than Derrek Lee, the Cubs' offense has been anemic. Lee is the only reason that Chicago has a chance at the playoffs, as he is having an unbelievable year. His stats deviate from the norm so much, in fact, that prognisticators are literally counting down the days until he returns back to Earth. However, given Lee's talent, don't bank on this happening. Scouts have thought this could happen for awhile. His power surge reminds me a little bit of Sosa's surge in 1998- although his demeanor (and the times) are far different.
If the Cubs' pitching decides to resume its dominance (with Maddux, Prior, Wood, and Zambrano you would think they could have a winning record) and they trade for some hitting and their bullpen holds up and... well, you get the idea. My guess is that this is another year of second-guessing and what-ifs for Cubs fans, but hey, that's why they play the game.
P.S. Does sending down Corey Patterson really solve their problems? I doubt it.
The Contenders.
Florida Marlins (44-42)
One of the great mysteries in baseball is why the Marlins aren't a better team. They have the experience, the starting rotation, and even two very good power hitters. The D-Train could start the All-Star game. Yet the Marlins have been around .500 for most of the year, and nobody is quite certain why. But here is what we do know:
1) The Marlins have a terrible fifth starter.
Al Leiter is having a year that could make a lot of players retire. His ERA is around 7 in a ballpark that should at least kind of benefit pitchers. He has averaged less than five innings a start, and reminds us not of the bulldog, World-Series pitcher of the 90s.
2) Mike Lowell and Juan Pierre are struggling. Lowell's struggles are immense and hard to explain. It has been enough to warrant trade rumors, and the Marlins are now in the market at third, a place they never thought they would need help. Additionally, Pierre's OBP is down, and the power hitters (Cabrera and Delgado) haven't been able to knock in the batters.
3) The bullpen is shaky. With the exception of Todd Jones, nobody has been great. Guillermo Mota was supposed to be the closer, but he won't be given that opportunity any longer, partially due to ineffectiveness, and partially due to a fight with Jack McKeon.
Despite these problems, it's hard to overlook Florida's talent, and the Marlins (like the Yankees) should be in it due to talent alone.
Houston Astros (44-43)
This team was horrible and shopping its players a month ago. But Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt have pitched so well that eventually even the meager run support the Astros provide is enough to win games. And winning is what the Astros have been doing, as Lance Berkman has come back and stabilized the lineup (sort of), Morgan Ensberg has returned to form, and Oswalt, Clemens and Lidge have been lights out.
Here is why the Astros are major contenders: they are almost guaranteed a quality start three out of four games in a series. Only a handful of other teams can claim that. Andy Pettite has been a hard-luck pitcher this year, but his ERA is still only 3.09. The dominance of their starters is leading to results that are similar to what is going on in Washington, and if Houston happens to pick up another bat down the stretch, this team could be really tough.
Atlanta Braves (50-39)
This team is perhaps the best testament to Bobby Cox's greatness as a manager. Confronted with a myriad of injuries, Cox and the Braves have decided to call up pretty much the entirety of their farm system, including... Wilson Betemit, Andy Marte, Kelly Johnson, Pete Orr, Jeff Francoeur, Kyle Davies, Bryan McCann, Brayan Pena, and Ryan Langerhans.
These players have been good replacements, and will inevitably push most of Atlanta's current starters out. However, nobody knew they would be good this quickly, and Atlanta has won many games this year because of that fact. The fact that Andruw Jones is leading MLB in home runs hasn't hurt either.
The real question is if this spot describing Atlanta's wild-card chances shouldn't have gone to the Nationals. But that's another question for another day. And why are there no NL West teams on this list? Well, you can read last week's column for that.
I'm out...
Mike
posted by mike at 5:43 PM
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