Rose Bowl Preview!

I wasn't lying, I really do have some thoughts on the Rose Bowl.

The main question on everyone's mind is if Texas has a chance in this game or not. So let's look at the verdict.

We could go by the whole position-by-position matchup, or we could try to look at this with some intuition. I'm afraid, quite frankly, of both options, primarily because I don't think Texas has much of a chance to win what is essentially a road game.

The only real clue to how Texas might do in this game comes from Oregon, who has a lighter version of Vince Young with Kelvin Clemons, and Oregon got slaughtered. But Texas is a much better team than Oregon, so we don't really have much insight on how Texas will do.

What we do know is this: Texas will have to score all the points they can to win this game. USC won't be held to under 30. And Texas has shown consistently that they're quite capable of executing this task: they nearly dismantled an entire program (one that was coming apart at the seams anyway, but still) in Colorado during the Big 12 Championship. They've actually scored more points than USC this year.

But Texas hasn't seen a great running back all year, and they're stuck with two in LenDale White and Reggie Bush. And if USC gets on the board early, Texas will be under immense pressure to score, something they haven't had to deal with too much all year.

Unlike USC, Texas has had to play great defenses this year, and since SC isn't quite as proficient on the defensive end (UCLA and Oregon notwithstanding), we should expect Vince Young to be pretty good at running on the SC defense. He'll have to be.

Oh, this analysis gets me nowhere. Texas has a better secondary, USC a better offensive line... let's skip all of this.

What should happen intuitively happen?

Texas and SC trade TD's for awhile in the first half. USC ends up leading, maybe 24-14, when one of Texas's drives stalls out.

Under pressure in the second half, Texas turns it over. USC scores again, making it 31-14. The Longhorns bounce back, scoring a touchdown. Amazingly, they pick off Leinart, but can only get a field goal. Bush and White seal the Longhorns' fate in the 3rd and 4th quarters, rushing for maybe 200 more yards. Texas keeps pace, but is down too much. USC wins, 45-38.

But maybe I've underestimated Texas. I hope that's the case, and I hope they win. But I won't bet against USC until they lose. They haven't done that in a long time.

No, we aren't bucking around...

Quick, what's the biggest story in the NBA right now?

The Detroit Pistons? Amazing start, but not quite the right answer.

Shaq and Kobe? Please, that train is old.

If you guessed "the Milwaukee Bucks," you'd be absolutely correct.

It's too early to say definitively that the Bucks will make the playoffs, but they're the best story in the league this year.

Why is that the case?

It's called the "something to prove" factor, and it's affected literally everyone on the team. Andrew Bogut, for one, heard all summer that he was overrated, that he wasn't worthy of being the number one pick, and that he would be a flop in the NBA. And he's proven to be a competent starting center in the league, something that the Bucks were hoping for but weren't necessarily expecting to start out with.

Credit T.J. Ford for coming back from a career-threatening, life-changing neck injury. We had almost forgetten he existed, and certainly didn't think he would be as good as he was when he took Texas to the Final Four. (T.J. Ford, by the way, is the reason that Texas got so much cred in the polls this year- people pegged Daniel Gibson as T.J. Ford, when maybe he's not there yet.) Also, credit Michael Redd, who had been lambasted by the media for not being worth the huge contract he signed at the start of the year. He wasn't a great shooter coming out of college, so he wasn't drafted high. When he learned how to shoot well, he wasn't consistent in the other facets of the game to suit others. So they criticized him some more. Well, scorers don't grow on trees, and Redd's 25 ppg should shut up a lot of people.

While we're at it, we should credit Mo Williams and Bobby Simmons, both second round picks, for sharing the scoring load, and we should take a look at the impact that Jamaal Magloire makes not only for rebounding and defense, but on Bogut as well.

Deceptively, the Bucks acquired plenty of depth this summer, and they've distanced themselves from the other "pathetics" in the NBA, who don't have any idea how to compete with the big-spending teams in the league. That's why the team with the number one pick is 15-10, and that's why they're the best story in the NBA.

Why I don't care that much about the NFL, and why you shouldn't either.

What is the most expensive sport to go and see?

No, seriously, if you wanted to take your family to see a football game, how much would it cost?

The answer: a staggering $301.75.

Now, this includes four tickets, two beers, four sodas, four hot dogs, parking, two programs, and two caps. It's a part of the patented Fan Cost Index survey, and it's not necessarily indicative of how much it would cost for your family to attend a game, but my guess is that it's pretty close.

And frankly, it's not worth it.

The NFL's calling card is easily the fact that every game "matters." And that's admirable. There's nothing worse than a meaningless Warriors/Hawks, Pirates/Royals, or Blues/Blue Jackets game. But I've never been to an NFL game. I can't afford to go. I can afford the other sports, but not the NFL.

Why is this the case? Well, tickets have an extraordinarily high face value, much of which doesn't get discounted later on. Often, if the team is any good, the games will be long sold out, and the tickets will sell for much higher than face value. The NFL, a blue-collar sport, easily prices itself away from the casual fans. The only reason die-hards can go is because there are so few games; anyone else gets to deal directly with brokers (either internet or regular). Often, that's no good.

So I guess I get to watch my NFL games at home.

Well, this is ok with me if I live in a market with teams that don't suck. (Louisville, for example, would be a good example of a "non-suck" market this year.)

Unfortunately, that meant lots of Cleveland Browns action for me this year. But I'm ok with that. At least I don't live in, say, Sacramento. Can you imagine having to watch the Raiders or the Niners every week? That's inhumane.

Well, I can tune in and watch athletes that are the best of their profession, the height of class, right?

Wrong.

The NFL has Terrell Owens and Randy Moss, two vagabond wideouts who compete with each other to reach the apex of stupidity. It has Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick, two good quarterbacks who are overrated and whine a bunch, and Peyton Manning, a phenom of a QB who's going to have to win the big game someday, but is content to be an arrogant dude for the time being.

And it also has Tom Brady, our generation's Troy Aikman/Joe Montana/Roger Staubach type. At least it has one great star going for it. Unfortunately, the NFL still doesn't realize that the great stars of the past made themselves great by winning, primarily, and doesn't give players and teams like Jake Delhomme and Carolina, Derrick Brooks in Tampa Bay, and Shaun Alexander and Seattle any respect.

See, what irritates me about the NFL is that it's clearly the best concept of all the professional leagues, yet it prices itself out of the casual fan's reach, insists on marketing its biggest egos instead of its best players (where is Tomlinson's press???), and ruins half of its appeal by showing every single game imaginable on TV, burning me out on it halfway through. So, I don't care too much for it.

Plus, they haven't had a good MNF matchup in weeks, though there's always a chance that we could get a Namath-quality gem when the Jets are playing. But that's just whining; of course, if there was any continuity in which teams were good and which teams weren't good, the matchups might be better... but that's nit-picking.

But this year is a new year. Maybe I'll change my mind about the NFL if I can find a team to cheer for. Just don't bet on it.

NFL Playoffs, whatever.

I guess I owe everyone some sort of NFL-themed post, since the season's almost over and I've deftly avoided talking about it "aristocrat-style." I'm about to puff out my robe in glorious style, but before I declare my divine right over everyone else, I'll briefly cover all the important NFL topics in glorious "Q and A format."

John in Kentucky (along with Nate in Ohio) asks... "Are the Bengals for real?"

The answer, of course, is who cares. Wait, never mind, that's not very aristocratic of me. Nor is it very nice. After all, the Bengals kind of almost make me like the NFL; it's a nice feel good story. Yes, the Bengals are for real. They have managed to build a very powerful offense, which means they're "good at something," which makes them better than maybe 24 other teams automatically. I've heard rumors that Marvin Lewis is a defensive guy, which gives them sort of that Colts vibe that's been trendy lately.

You should note that I've accomplished all of this analysis without providing any "facts," which puts me on the fast track to being a stud sportswriter. So I'll throw in this one, mainly because I think it's neat.

QB Ratings for first two NFL seasons:
Year 1:
Manning, Peyton 71.2
Palmer, Carson 77.3
Year 2:
Manning, Peyton 90.7
Palmer, Carson (through 13 games) 103.2

Geez, maybe the Bengals are getting better at drafting or something.

Grant in Kentucky asks: Will Terrell Owens be back with a bang?

Yes. But he needs to visit his grandmother, who should set him straight. I'm sort of curious to see what would happen if he was put on a team with a good quarterback. He'll always whine about it being the QB's fault if the QB isn't the truth. But no good QB will ever take him... oh, it's a vicious cycle.

Pete in Ohio asks: Will the Browns win again this season?

Certainly. They have Baltimore at home and Oakland on the road. They've also managed not to get blown out too terribly this year, which means they compete well in the games they do play in. Oakland tanked the Jets game something fierce last week, and Randy Moss has officially mailed it in for the year.

Rob in Louisiana asks: When is LSU firing Les Miles?

Wrong post, Rob. No, I think that if LSU ever wins fewer than 8 games in a season, Miles is gone.

Jason in Kentucky asks: Which team is going to draft Reggie Bush? I need to know what uniform he'll be in for certain "personal reasons."

It looks like the Texans are the team of choice, though they already have a moderately competent running back in Domanick Davis. The real question is whether or not they plan on getting an offensive line to protect David Carr, because I think if they don't, he might have some sort of Thiesmann-like injury, and then we'll have to hear him in the booth for the rest of our lives. On a positive note, the Texans have hired special consultant Dan Reeves, which means that very soon David Carr will be getting into feuds about making the offense more simple, because it's obvious that the Texans have opened up the playbook way too much. (sarcasm alert!)

Justin in Kentucky asks: Are the Colts gonna run the table?

It's about a coin flip. The biggest test is next week, mainly because the Chargers can score a lot of points and should be pretty desperate to win. People seem to forget that the Seahawks won't have a whole lot to play for when the Colts meet them up in Seattle, and will be hesitant to get Hasselback or Alexander hurt.

I think the Chargers have enough offense to hang with the Colts, and their defense might hold up ok too. The coaching might be a bit of a disaster though. Picking against Indy at home isn't a very good idea, so I'll go:

Colts 38, Chargers 34.
Colts 27, Seahawks 13.
Colts 49, Cardinals 10.

Suzanne in Indiana asks: Who will be in the Super Bowl? I'm tired of reading about all this stuff I don't care about.

Suzanne, I couldn't agree more. Let's take the Colts in the AFC (though the Patriots will really test them when they play, as will the Bengals.) Let's not kid ourselves, the Patriots are still the team to beat in the AFC, no matter how much we all want to see them lose. They did win the past few Super Bowls. I'll go ahead and take the Giants from the NFC, based purely on intuition. Actually, they seem to be the best team there, mainly because they're balanced. But don't think for a minute that I won't change my mind whenever I want. After all, it's my right.

Concerning the Breakup of the Marlins...

There are some things that just defy any explanation. One of those things, for example, is the breakup of the Marlins.

I'm not quite sure why the Marlins decided that their current roster was not "good enough" to make it to the playoffs, but they decided that they wanted to rebuild and that was that, and they traded...

Carlos Delgado for Mike Jacobs and Yusmeiro Petit.

Yeah, I suppose they got some "value," but Miguel Cabrera will learn the value of protection next year when he's being walked every other at-bat. Then again, I suppose when you're rebuilding, tanking one season is no big deal. So the idea is to have Jacobs step in and play first, while Petit is supposed to come in and start. Both of these moves should theoretically work, but nothing is ever sure with prospects. My guess is that Jacobs will be so-so and that Petit will be pretty hit or miss.

The Mets benefit from this trade: they'll have Wright, Beltran, and Delgado in the middle of their lineup next year. That's a pretty obvious improvement.

Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, and Guillermo Mota for Hanley Ramirez, two minor leaguers, and Anibal Sanchez.

Josh Beckett seems to me to be the sort of player you would want to rebuild around, not deal off. But we're talking about the Marlins here, and this team apparently has no qualms about losing more than 100 games in any given year.

Hanley Ramirez should be good, and should play next year. He seems to be pretty legitimate, but will take time to develop power. Anibal Sanchez is supposedly good, but is at least a year away from making any viable contribution.

What bothers me about this trade is the fact that the Marlins traded Mike Lowell after the worst season of his career, which caused his value to decrease exponentially. This isn't exactly "maximizing your utility" here.

Paul Lo Duca for two minor leaguers.

You always have to be careful when ragging on the acquisitions of "prospects," because the Marlins have been particularly adept at acquiring great players for reasonable prices in the past. Plus, the Marlins have a highly skilled catcher waiting in the wings in Josh Willingham, so they'll probably be relatively ok with this trade. I've always thought that Lo Duca was sort of overrated offensively anyway, so I feel that the Marlins aren't losing toooo much... but still, it's sort of disconcerting to see All-Stars traded for B-level prospects, even though Lo Duca is far from your typical three-time All-Star.

Luis Castillo for two more minor leaguers.

Here's what we know about this trade: the Twins were quite psyched to get rid of the Luis Rivas/Nick Punto platoon that they "had goin' on" at second, and were more than pleased to give up Travis Bowyer, a fireballer who seems to have a great fastball, but marginal control over the rest of his pitches. The other pitcher, Scott Tyler, is seemingly headed to the bullpen too (at least according to Baseball America). So, it seems like the Marlins dumped payroll for a couple of guys who are pretty marginal. Well, that's par for the course.

Juan Pierre for Sergio Mitre, Reynel Pinto, and Ricky Nolasco.

This trade amuses me for a number of reasons. One of which is the Cubs' attempt to find another Lance Johnson-type player, which is something they periodically try to do. I think Wrigley will do wonders for Pierre's power numbers, and he should benefit from being there.

Sergio Mitre is sort of a control guy who might benefit from a bigger park; he'll get plenty of chances to start for the Fish, who will probably put him right into the rotation. Reynel Pinto had good stats last year, as did Ricky Nolasco. Both of them could end up being pretty decent.

Oh, and let's throw in the fact that the Marlins aren't re-signing Juan Encarnacion, Alex Gonzalez, Todd Jones, Jeff Conine, and A.J. Burnett. At least they re-signed Brian Moehler.

Here's the new-look Marlin lineup:

C Josh Willingham
1B: Mike Jacobs
2B: Josh Wilson
SS: Hanley Ramirez
3B: Joe Dillon
OF: Chris Aguila, Miguel Cabrera, Jeremy Hermida

SP: Dontrelle Willis, Brian Moehler, Sergio Mitre, Yusmeiro Petit, and Josh Johnson.

100 losses, here we come.

Comprehensive Bowl Preview!

New Orleans Bowl:

Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss.

Arkansas State is not a good team. I expect them to get blown out by the Golden Eagles, who should have some sort of Katrina-related motivation to win this game. It’s also a rather short drive from Hattiesburg to Lafayette.

The real question is whether or not I’ll be at this game: it’s only a short drive from Shreveport to Lafayette, and it seems like a fun thing to do.

Southern Miss 41, Arkansas State 13.

GMAC Bowl:

UTEP vs. Toledo.

I expect this bowl to lose money this year.

What, I have to say more? Alright, the Rockets get a second chance at redemption on a national stage, while Mike Price keeps trying to convince people he’s a legitimate big-stage coach. (He is, by the way, and the Miners win.)

UTEP 52, Toledo 41.

Las Vegas Bowl:

Cal vs. BYU.

California was supposed to be better than this. They were supposed to challenge USC this year. But somewhere along the way they lost every meaningful game they played this year. BYU came pretty close to beating TCU, and this game should be a high-scoring, interesting game of two teams that probably underachieved.

Still, Cal made a statement with their final game of the year, and their defense really stepped up. I expect them to seek redemption for the Holiday Bowl debacle last year, and they’ll outscore BYU.

Cal 45, BYU 24.

Poinsettia Bowl:

Colorado State vs. Navy.

Colorado State seems sort of inconsistent. They lost to SD State by like 20. Navy was pretty close to going 9-2 this year. I like Navy in this one, and it should be fun to watch them run the option, since no team west of the Mississippi can play defense (kidding, kidding… Texas is west of the Mississippi, I know…)

Navy 34, CSU 23.


Fort Worth Bowl:

Kansas vs. Houston.

Kansas hasn’t won on the road all year. I’m going for another C-USA team winning this game. Houston can flat out score, and Kansas shouldn’t really be bowl eligible anyway. They beat Appalachian State, a 1-AA team, and only have five wins against D-1 opponents.

Houston 28, Kansas 20.

Hawaii Bowl:

Nevada vs. UCF.

It’s important to note that UCF lost at home to Tulsa in a game that was for the C-USA championship. On a side note, Nevada seems pretty good, and beat Fresno State.

It’s really tough to put this game in any sort of "context," since both teams have some pretty horrible losses, but it’s a shorter flight for Nevada. Go Wolfpack!

Nevada 35, UCF 17.

Motor City Bowl:

Memphis vs. Akron.

This is the most interesting story line of any of the bowls so far.

Akron is basically playing a home game in Detroit, while Memphis has Heisman candidate D’Angelo Williams. I think Memphis is more consistent, and Akron isn’t really that good of a team, except when they play Northern Illinois. This should be a fun game, but I like the Tigers to beat the Zips.

Memphis 27, Akron 17.

Champs Sports Bowl:

Clemson vs. Colorado.

Who expects Colorado to win this game? And why hasn’t Gary Barnett been fired yet? I’m looking for Charlie Whitehurst and the Tigers to put up a lot of points in this one.

On a side note, I completely cheated and checked out what ESPN had to say on this one, after I wrote that last sentence, of course. Here’s what they said: “The Buffaloes were outscored 100-6 in their last two games. Do they want to be in Orlando? Do they want to play for coach Gary Barnett? Clemson went 7-4 with two overtime losses and two others by a total of five points. The Tigers are tough.”

Wow, that was insightful.

Clemson 38, Colorado 13.

***Editor’s Note*** Gary Barnett has been fired. I need to finish things up more quickly.

Clemson 27, Colorado 17.

Insight Bowl:

Rutgers vs. Arizona State.

I hate this bowl already, mainly because they have the name of a horrible local Louisville monopoly as their main sponsor.

You know, bowl games which double as home games for one of the teams involved shouldn’t really be considered true tests of the matchup. I actually like Rutgers on a neutral site, but they’ll probably lose down in Phoenix.

Apparently Arizona State is good at passing, while Rutgers has this talented freshman running back named Ray Rice who ran for 1,000 yards. I didn’t know either of these facts until I looked them up. Maybe I’m not exactly “qualified to do this.”

Arizona State 31, Rutgers 20.

MPC Computers Bowl:

Boise State vs. Boston College.

See “Insight Bowl comments.” No, seriously, Boston College is getting jobbed by having to play on the blue turf. It’ll be interesting to see how they respond. I sort of think they’ll come out guns blazing, and I think they’ll beat Boise State with defense. Mathias Kiwanuka is a flat-out force. In an upset special, I’ll take the Eagles, who outscore the Broncos and make enough defensive plays to win.

Boston College 35, Boise State 24.

Alamo Bowl:

Michigan vs. Nebraska.

Keep in mind, Michigan’s four losses were to Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Notre Dame. Nebraska lost to, among others, Kansas. I think that says enough about who I think will win the game. Plus, Mike Hart will be back for Michigan, Chad Henne is a great quarterback (there, I said it) and Michigan’s defense is fairly solid.

Michigan 28, Nebraska 17.

Emerald Bowl:

Georgia Tech vs. Utah.

Um, I’ll take Georgia Tech in this one. Their defense is too solid for the Utes to keep up with. Calvin Johnson is the best receiver in the country, and Utah won’t be able to keep up. As you might have noticed, I have no respect for the Mountain West this year.

Georgia Tech 31, Utah 7.

Holiday Bowl:

Oregon vs. Oklahoma.

This is a great matchup, because Oklahoma was supposed to be a lot better than this, and they still have the ridiculously talented Adrian Peterson. I also think Bob Stoops has “righted the ship,” and that Oregon dodged a rather sizable obstacle in not having to play UCLA this year. I’m also of the opinion that the Pac-10 teams should play each other every year. But schools like Washington State need that extra patsy to give their fans hope every year.

Plus, this game is being played as the Holiday Bowl, which is always a delight to watch. It’s a tough one to call, but Oregon should be sufficiently motivated to beat the Sooners, who haven’t played a whole lot of defense this year. Plus, Oklahoma has a freshman QB. Look for some late-quarter dramatics from Kelven Clemons.

Oregon 34, Oklahoma 28.

Music City Bowl:

Minnesota vs. Virginia.

Here are two wildly inconsistent teams who would readily lose to each other if given the chance. Unfortunately, one of these teams has to win. Give the edge to Minnesota, who can run the ball at will. By the way, Al Groh should probably be the next coach to have his job in jeopardy.

Minnesota 24, Virginia 20.

Sun Bowl:

Northwestern vs. UCLA.

So I read this article in USA Today stating that Drew Olsen was a legitimate Heisman contender; that he was the best quarterback in the Pac-10, and that he wasn’t getting enough respect.

So I watched this game where USC dominated UCLA on all sides of the ball, including holding Olsen to a very marginal game.

I’m willing to split the difference between those results, which calls me to pick UCLA over Northwestern in a large shoot-out. Northwestern seems to me to be another Big-10 team that can’t win much on the road.

On a side note, I always love to watch this game; the fans always seem a little too jacked up to be in El Paso. At least the fans at the Motor City bowl always seem to have some reservations about being there.

UCLA 41, Northwestern 35.

Independence Bowl:

Missouri vs. South Carolina.

You know, it’s funny. A lot of bowl games between marginal teams seem extremely one-sided in one direction. The I-Bowl is no exception; there’s not a single person on Earth who’s going to pick Mizzou in this one. So, using logic, I’m on Earth… go Gamecocks.

On a side note, this will be the first time in four years that I haven’t attended this bowl. It should benefit from a large turnout, but I think that this game is in trouble without a major sponsor. Somebody, please sponsor the I-Bowl.

South Carolina 28, Missouri 13.

Peach Bowl:

Miami vs. LSU.

This is the first big match-up, and it’s really difficult to tell who will win. LSU is clearly on the ropes after getting thrashed by Georgia, but Miami’s offense has been really inconsistent. I think that Miami is too consistent on the other sides of the ball to lose to LSU, but I am sort of pulling for LSU in this one. At least there will be some defense.

LSU 16, Miami 14.

Meineke Bowl:

South Florida vs. N.C. State.

I have to take South Florida in this game, since they beat Louisville. Wait… no, I don’t. N.C. State’s defense is too good for them to lose, and they’ll score a few points in what amounts to be a home game for them.

N.C. State 23, South Florida 7.

Liberty Bowl:

Tulsa vs. Fresno State.

The chic pick for this game seems to be C-USA champion Tulsa, but Fresno State can score a lot of points. The Bulldogs have had a lot of close calls against better teams this year, but they are battle-tested and should be ready to play the Hurricane.

This bowl might lose money too, come to think about it. I'm not sure why they were so eager to take Fresno to start with.

Fresno State 38, Tulsa 21.

Houston Bowl:

TCU vs. Iowa State.

This game is closer than it appears: Iowa State is a sneaky good team, and TCU has won a lot of close games this year. So I’ll revert back to my rule about “virtual home games.” TCU will win this one, but Iowa State beats the spread. By the way, Bret Meyer is one of my favorite quarterbacks in the country.

TCU 28, Iowa State 24.

Cotton Bowl:

Texas Tech vs. Alabama.

The quintessential question: does good offense beat good defense? The answer is no: Alabama wins this game. Texas Tech hasn’t been too strong against opponents who’ve had good defenses, and the Big 12 is fairly weak this year. By the way, Alabama was pretty close to running the table this year: a better second half against LSU, and they probably play better against Auburn… wait, the logic is compounding. I still like the Tide in this one. I want them to beat the Red Raiders and that QB Ross, who claimed he could score 100 points in a game. Yeah, you did that well in the Big 12.

Alabama 24, Texas Tech 21.

Outback Bowl:

Iowa vs. Florida.

This year, it’s Florida’s turn to thrash Iowa in the Outback Bowl. If you thought you saw this bowl two years ago, you aren’t wrong. Chris Leak, by the way, is my favorite player in college football. Florida’s offense is reborn, and the Gators win going away.

Florida 31, Iowa 14.

Gator Bowl:

Louisville vs. Virginia Tech.

You know, Louisville can still score points without Brian Brohm. Virginia Tech, by the way, has looked very shaky on offense. I think Louisville’s offense will find a way to score some points, and I’m taking Louisville in this one. (Note: I would take Louisville “no matter what.”)

Oh, I guess I have to write another paragraph. Well, Louisville has more than one good receiver (implying Jimmy Williams won't be as much of a force as he could be), Marcus Vick is an X-factor or an X, and Virginia Tech's special teams are fun to watch.

Louisville 28, VT 20.

Capital One Bowl:

Auburn vs. Wisconsin.

This seems like more of a mismatch than it actually is. Wisconsin will be very motivated to win this game and can flat-out run the football. Brian Calhoun has 21 touchdowns this year. Barry Alvarez is coaching his last game. But Auburn is the better team, plays better defense, and has a pretty good offense itself.

Oh, let’s take the Badgers.

Wisconsin 27, Auburn 23.

Fiesta Bowl:

Notre Dame vs. Ohio State.

Ohio State has a great defense. Notre Dame has a great offense. But Ohio State is probably more balanced than Notre Dame—a team that looked quite susceptible in their narrow win over Stanford. Plus, I go to OSU now.

Still, it’s important to give Brady Quinn “sufficient props.” Rumor is that he’s the best NFL QB prospect; some people even have him ahead of Matt Leinart.

The only way Notre Dame wins this game is if they win on special teams. But that's entirely possible with Ginn returning punts.


OSU 24, Notre Dame 20.

Sugar Bowl:

Georgia vs. West Virginia.

Ultimately, West Virginia doesn’t stand much of a chance in this game, mainly because they’re too one-dimensional, don’t have a phenomenal defense, and are playing on the road. Still, I’d like to think that they’re a little more legitimate than they get credit for. It’s foolish to pick against Shockley and the Bulldogs at home, though, and Georgia wins this game.

Georgia 28, WVU 10.

Orange Bowl:

Penn State vs. Florida State.

So Joe Paterno proved that he’s a smart coach this year, leading the Nittany Lions to the Orange Bowl. Plus, he recently stiffed some reporters, which is always nice. I don’t know how well Penn State will get up for this game. They’ll either come in with a chip on their shoulder (option A) or will have a let-down (option B). Or, they’ll have some sort of convex combination of the two outcomes. Whatever the case, it should be enough to beat the ‘Noles.

Penn State 17, FSU 7.

Rose Bowl

coming soon... no, I might actually give some real analysis (oh, I'll stop with the math jokes...) on this one.

Quick College Football update.

So I was talking on the phone to the illustrious Grant Johnson last night, and he suggested that my next post be about how USC should make the Rose Bowl even if they lost to UCLA tomorrow, as opposed to Penn State. Since I haven't actually had any good ideas for this blog in a long time, that sounded like a good plan to me.

I actually agree with Grant, although deep in my heart I would like Penn State to be in that game. However, I think that USC is the best team in the country (much to my chagrin, since I have a large quantity of distaste for them), and I'd like to describe why as succinctly as possible.

In short, their offense is unstoppable. By unstoppable I mean nobody can keep them from scoring at least 28 points in a game, which makes them nearly impossible to beat. By unstoppable I mean that the offense is so good that I thought Fresno State had no chance to beat them, even though they took a 42-41 lead late into the fourth quarter. There wasn't a soul in the Rose Bowl who didn't think that USC would score again, and USC obliged. By unstoppable I mean that there's not a single person who thinks that SC will score just, say, 27 points.

Who doesn't think that Reggie Bush will light UCLA up like a Christmas tree? I certainly wouldn't bet on another outcome.

Now, with all of this, they'll have a tough time beating Texas. Texas is like USC, except for the fact that they've played a little bit easier schedule (other than OSU, they haven't played any impressive teams), and periodically the Longhorns' D shows up. But they'll still have to stop the two-headed monster of Leinart and Bush, and that may be a lot to ask.

But all of this still doesn't explain why USC should be in and not Penn State. So I'll put it another way: USC would defeat Penn State in a head-to-head game. Oh, we aren't saying that Penn State might not have a chance, because there's a chance their defense might hold up well under the intense pressure of the Trojan's O. Just don't bet on it. Penn State benefitted from playing Wisconsin, Minnesota, South Florida, and Ohio State at home. They also lost on the road at Michigan (albeit in a great effort), and struggled to beat Northwestern on the road. A neutral site might not serve the Nittany Lions well, particuluarly if they had to face a dominant offense. And, just so we're keeping track of all this, the same logic would probably apply to a Texas/Penn State game.

Maybe USC's offense won't be enough for them to win the Rose Bowl. After all, defense wins championships. But, since the Trojans play there, it probably will be. It's just a facet of the wonderful system we call the BCS.