Mets/Cardinals Game 7
So the National League finds itself with two teams who are absolute messes at this current moment in time in the Mets and Cardinals. Still, they're duking it out in what could be probably be considered the worst seven-game series ever, so we should probably at least consider the ramifications of the last and final game of this series.
Ramification 1: If St. Louis wins the NLCS, they will be competitive in the World Series.
There, I said it. I not only think the NL isn't as bad as people think, I'm going out on a major limb and saying the St. Louis Cardinals could win the World Series.
We have to think a little bit about the quality of the Cardinals as a team to analyze why they were able to make a competitive playoff run after being written off toward the end of the regular season. Before the season started, everyone accepted that the Cardinals were for real, that they were legitimate World Series contenders, and that they would be there at the end. They are there at the end. That's given. Now, on July 27 they were 15 games over .500, and a virtual lock to make the playoffs at that point. They had a bad last few months, sneaking into the playoffs, and suddenly they were a bad team who had no chance.
Well, the Cardinals won over 100 games in both 2004 and 2005, and were relatively successful both years in the playoffs. Now, we realize that in sports, historical trends generally have no impact on any given event, but they're trends for a reason. For example: Jeff Weaver was terrible for most of 2006, but he was pretty good over the rest of his career (at least relative to the rest of whatever league he was pitching in). Now, we threw Weaver under the bus for the whole year, and now we're surprised that he's doing reasonably well in the playoffs? I'm all about some what-have-you-done-for-me lately, but I don't think that one bad year dooms any player.
Here's what we do know about St. Louis: They have one pitcher who should be able to pitch well in the World Series (NL Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter). They have a reasonably competent closer in Adam Wainwright, who was always considered to be a good prospect in the minors (after all, he was a key in the J.D. Drew deal). They have two reasonably competent starters in Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver, who are capable of pitching well in big games. That is enough to keep any team in a small series.
Now for the topper: St. Louis has Albert Pujols, who is automatically the best player in any series he enters. Pujols can walk the walk: he criticized Glavine in Game 1 (for mysterious reasons) and nailed him in Game 5. We all know what he did to Brad Lidge's career. Obviously, he's a capable leader. The rest of that lineup is good enough. We can spare the details for simplicity. I don't have to convince anyone that Rolen is a borderline Hall-of-Famer, or that Juan Encarnacion, David Eckstein, and Jim Edmonds can hit. Also, there's this interesting problem of So Taguchi, who has figured out how to hit this year.
So don't give me any of this getting swept crap; the Tigers aren't necessarily a team of destiny anyway.
Ramification 2: This is the defining game of Oliver Perez's career.
If you told New York in 2004 that Oliver Perez would be starting game 7 of the NLCS for them in 2006, they would have been stoked. Now, they want nothing to do with that idea, for very good reasons: Perez has been terrible in 2005 and 2006, and will likely not pitch very well in game 7 either.
But he could pitch well.
In sports, we generally like to categorize players by their talent level. Oliver Perez's talent level is higher than that of probably most of the other pitchers in this series. His 2004 season (and his '02 season) were indicative of what he could do. What Oliver Perez could do with his career is different from what, say, Steve Trachsel could do with his. We call these ceilings, and Perez's ceiling is pretty high.
Imploding in Game 7, however, will easily cost him his job as a Met, and will likely send him to a bad team next year. He could end up following the Bruce Chen strategy for staying in the big leagues, which would involve him going anywhere to do anything to stay in the leagues. Somehow, I think Perez should be better than a fly-by-night journeyman.
Ramification 3: Pujols/Beltran could be the next big slugger rivalry.
We could see something colossal from Beltran and Pujols in this game. That's all I'm saying.
Oh, and here's to Carlos Delgado's subtle reminder to everyone of how good he really is. There's a guy who's really unique.
Ramification 4: The New York Mets, should they win, are a good bet to be the next Yankees.
We thought that the Mets would be good for a long time. However, this year things really congealed in the middle of their lineup, to the point where we look at that team and can't help but wonder how good they'll be over the next few years.
Consider how the Mets' lineup stacks up for next year: Everyone's back, and Reyes and Wright will probably be better than they were this year. This alone is a scary thought. We all are aware now of why Carlos Beltran was worth so much money to that team (it just took them spending millions on Delgado to figure that out) and the future should be very bright.
Plus, the Mets have a semi-dominant closer in Wagner (though he has been yuck in this series) and plenty of money to buy a staff (although John Maine will be good soon enough). It's not hard to envision the Mets blitzing the rest of the NL for the next few years.
Prediction time.
Still, I guess I have to make a prediction:
Cardinals 11, Mets 8.
Perez gets knocked out early; the bullpen implodes for both teams.
Ramification 1: If St. Louis wins the NLCS, they will be competitive in the World Series.
There, I said it. I not only think the NL isn't as bad as people think, I'm going out on a major limb and saying the St. Louis Cardinals could win the World Series.
We have to think a little bit about the quality of the Cardinals as a team to analyze why they were able to make a competitive playoff run after being written off toward the end of the regular season. Before the season started, everyone accepted that the Cardinals were for real, that they were legitimate World Series contenders, and that they would be there at the end. They are there at the end. That's given. Now, on July 27 they were 15 games over .500, and a virtual lock to make the playoffs at that point. They had a bad last few months, sneaking into the playoffs, and suddenly they were a bad team who had no chance.
Well, the Cardinals won over 100 games in both 2004 and 2005, and were relatively successful both years in the playoffs. Now, we realize that in sports, historical trends generally have no impact on any given event, but they're trends for a reason. For example: Jeff Weaver was terrible for most of 2006, but he was pretty good over the rest of his career (at least relative to the rest of whatever league he was pitching in). Now, we threw Weaver under the bus for the whole year, and now we're surprised that he's doing reasonably well in the playoffs? I'm all about some what-have-you-done-for-me lately, but I don't think that one bad year dooms any player.
Here's what we do know about St. Louis: They have one pitcher who should be able to pitch well in the World Series (NL Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter). They have a reasonably competent closer in Adam Wainwright, who was always considered to be a good prospect in the minors (after all, he was a key in the J.D. Drew deal). They have two reasonably competent starters in Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver, who are capable of pitching well in big games. That is enough to keep any team in a small series.
Now for the topper: St. Louis has Albert Pujols, who is automatically the best player in any series he enters. Pujols can walk the walk: he criticized Glavine in Game 1 (for mysterious reasons) and nailed him in Game 5. We all know what he did to Brad Lidge's career. Obviously, he's a capable leader. The rest of that lineup is good enough. We can spare the details for simplicity. I don't have to convince anyone that Rolen is a borderline Hall-of-Famer, or that Juan Encarnacion, David Eckstein, and Jim Edmonds can hit. Also, there's this interesting problem of So Taguchi, who has figured out how to hit this year.
So don't give me any of this getting swept crap; the Tigers aren't necessarily a team of destiny anyway.
Ramification 2: This is the defining game of Oliver Perez's career.
If you told New York in 2004 that Oliver Perez would be starting game 7 of the NLCS for them in 2006, they would have been stoked. Now, they want nothing to do with that idea, for very good reasons: Perez has been terrible in 2005 and 2006, and will likely not pitch very well in game 7 either.
But he could pitch well.
In sports, we generally like to categorize players by their talent level. Oliver Perez's talent level is higher than that of probably most of the other pitchers in this series. His 2004 season (and his '02 season) were indicative of what he could do. What Oliver Perez could do with his career is different from what, say, Steve Trachsel could do with his. We call these ceilings, and Perez's ceiling is pretty high.
Imploding in Game 7, however, will easily cost him his job as a Met, and will likely send him to a bad team next year. He could end up following the Bruce Chen strategy for staying in the big leagues, which would involve him going anywhere to do anything to stay in the leagues. Somehow, I think Perez should be better than a fly-by-night journeyman.
Ramification 3: Pujols/Beltran could be the next big slugger rivalry.
We could see something colossal from Beltran and Pujols in this game. That's all I'm saying.
Oh, and here's to Carlos Delgado's subtle reminder to everyone of how good he really is. There's a guy who's really unique.
Ramification 4: The New York Mets, should they win, are a good bet to be the next Yankees.
We thought that the Mets would be good for a long time. However, this year things really congealed in the middle of their lineup, to the point where we look at that team and can't help but wonder how good they'll be over the next few years.
Consider how the Mets' lineup stacks up for next year: Everyone's back, and Reyes and Wright will probably be better than they were this year. This alone is a scary thought. We all are aware now of why Carlos Beltran was worth so much money to that team (it just took them spending millions on Delgado to figure that out) and the future should be very bright.
Plus, the Mets have a semi-dominant closer in Wagner (though he has been yuck in this series) and plenty of money to buy a staff (although John Maine will be good soon enough). It's not hard to envision the Mets blitzing the rest of the NL for the next few years.
Prediction time.
Still, I guess I have to make a prediction:
Cardinals 11, Mets 8.
Perez gets knocked out early; the bullpen implodes for both teams.
posted by mike at 10:21 PM
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