brackets.
I was going to use this post as a sounding board for my anger at Susan Linn, the Harvard psychologist who came out against Book It this week, claiming that "in the name of education, it promotes junk food consumption to a captive audience ... and undermines parents by positioning family visits to Pizza Hut as an integral component of raising literate children."
Then I realized that someday I want to do work that upsets people that much. It would be sweet to be her kid though... no pizza and soda for you- only organic chips and salsa! Maybe berry juice!
One question: would anyone take Linn seriously if she was, from, say, Illinois State? Credibility is everything, baby! And the Crimson wonders why Princeton and MIT have taken the kwan in recent years.
Whatever, let's move on to sports.
The only thing I've really been interested in lately is college basketball culture related to bracketology. I tried to make my own bracket a couple of weeks ago, but I'm not very good at it yet.
For the first time, I've actually tried to analyze the bubble in a meaningful fashion. Normally, I go through each team in a sort of cursory fashion, but I wrote out the meaningful wins and bad losses and have figured out the teams I would probably pick for the dance.
Let's assume there are five spots like Lunardi does, and let's analyze the teams.
I'll go ahead and put in Purdue. The difference between Purdue and Illinois is this: when push comes to shove, Illinois only has two meaningful wins. They have a whole bunch of meaningless wins, but only two meaningful ones. Let's forget about the fact that the Illini have twenty-plus wins in the Big 10; Penn State, Northwestern, and Minnesota are basically free wins in that conference. Those three would be in the bottom half of the Missouri Valley; their non-conference records prove it. Now, if you take away those wins, Illinois has exactly two big wins: one over Indiana, the other over Michigan State; in a must-win at Iowa, they choked. They've got a play-in game coming; but need that marquee win. Purdue, meanwhile, has some hideous losses, but at least they beat some decent teams when it counted. The Big 10 isn't getting six teams, though. That's not happening. It's Purdue OR Illinois, and I'll take Purdue.
I'll go ahead and put in the winner of the FSU/Clemson game. I think it's a play-in. Clemson basically played themselves out of the Dance, except they spoiled it by beating Virginia Tech on the road, giving them one more marquee win. Their out-of-conference doesn't look as bad anymore, and if they hadn't lost to Wake they would be in. Florida State is a dangerous team and should be let into the Dance based solely on the fact that on any given day, they could be a Top 10 team. Unfortunately, on any given day they could be bottom 100 and so they're stuck in a play-in game. They got swept by Clemson and if they lose again, they'll be 19-12 with three losses to a team that is also on the bubble.
Let's go ahead and put one more Big East team in the Dance. Whoever goes further between WVU and DePaul is in the Dance. I know Depaul has a ton of losses, but they're pretty much identical to FSU (as far as I can tell) which gets them there if they win a couple in the Big East tourney. Of course, since 'Nova's on the bubble, they seem destined to struggle in the first round. WVU's win over UCLA counts more than people think.
Let's go ahead and extend an invite to Old Dominion. They beat Drexel twice in the head-to-head, and knocked off Georgetown. Somebody has to go in from the CAA; if they only get one bid, the tourney's heads will be on the line.
Let's go ahead and put in Missouri State over Kansas State.
It's a tough call to do this, but I think Kansas State has failed to impress; down the stretch, they had a number of chances to get to 11 wins in the Big 12 (a sure lock) but failed, most notably going down in flames to Nebraska. They beat Texas; Missouri State beat Wisconsin. Which is more impressive?
Sweeping Bradley is probably more impressive than sweeping Missouri, which is something Missouri State has in its favor. They also have history in their favor; they were in an identical position last year and got screwed. That history is on their side.
If K-State beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 tourney, we'll talk. Personally, I think Bob Knight won't let that happen.
What are the Wildcards?
Here are five quick scenarios I forsee that could really make life interesting for the bracket committee:
1) Washington makes it to the Pac-10 final.
They'll have to be in at that point, as they'll have beaten Oregon, UCLA, and USC at least once, probably twice. Now they would be .500 in the conference, and they're a hot team right now, making this utterly possible. Do you bounce Stanford? I can't imagine why you would. Seven Pac-10 teams would have people screaming.
2) New Mexico State makes it to WAC final.
Yuck. NMSU now stands at like 24 or 25 wins, which you have to weigh differently because they were on their home court for the conference tourney. They knocked off Fresno in the semis, so you know they're decent. What do you do?
3) Michigan beats OSU in the quarters.
This is a problem, because now Michigan has shown success against a number one seed. You'll definitely have to re-evaluate the whole Big 10, as they might have six legit teams.
4) SEC West Team in Final.
You'll note that this is probably the most likely of any of the circumstances; although you would think that Kentucky might end Alabama's hopes in a panicked "we might be on the bubble sort of way." Ole Miss and Mississippi State are the one and two seeds, and might fall victim to UK in a similar way. Georgia/Ole Miss should be a good one. It should be a wild tournament.
5) Air Force loses to Wyoming.
Now Air Force would have to sit squarely on the bubble, with four consecutive losses going into the Dance. They lost @ TCU, the worst team in the conference. SDSU's about as convincing at this point. What do you do? How much do victories over Stanford and Texas Tech count at this point?
Then I realized that someday I want to do work that upsets people that much. It would be sweet to be her kid though... no pizza and soda for you- only organic chips and salsa! Maybe berry juice!
One question: would anyone take Linn seriously if she was, from, say, Illinois State? Credibility is everything, baby! And the Crimson wonders why Princeton and MIT have taken the kwan in recent years.
Whatever, let's move on to sports.
The only thing I've really been interested in lately is college basketball culture related to bracketology. I tried to make my own bracket a couple of weeks ago, but I'm not very good at it yet.
For the first time, I've actually tried to analyze the bubble in a meaningful fashion. Normally, I go through each team in a sort of cursory fashion, but I wrote out the meaningful wins and bad losses and have figured out the teams I would probably pick for the dance.
Let's assume there are five spots like Lunardi does, and let's analyze the teams.
I'll go ahead and put in Purdue. The difference between Purdue and Illinois is this: when push comes to shove, Illinois only has two meaningful wins. They have a whole bunch of meaningless wins, but only two meaningful ones. Let's forget about the fact that the Illini have twenty-plus wins in the Big 10; Penn State, Northwestern, and Minnesota are basically free wins in that conference. Those three would be in the bottom half of the Missouri Valley; their non-conference records prove it. Now, if you take away those wins, Illinois has exactly two big wins: one over Indiana, the other over Michigan State; in a must-win at Iowa, they choked. They've got a play-in game coming; but need that marquee win. Purdue, meanwhile, has some hideous losses, but at least they beat some decent teams when it counted. The Big 10 isn't getting six teams, though. That's not happening. It's Purdue OR Illinois, and I'll take Purdue.
I'll go ahead and put in the winner of the FSU/Clemson game. I think it's a play-in. Clemson basically played themselves out of the Dance, except they spoiled it by beating Virginia Tech on the road, giving them one more marquee win. Their out-of-conference doesn't look as bad anymore, and if they hadn't lost to Wake they would be in. Florida State is a dangerous team and should be let into the Dance based solely on the fact that on any given day, they could be a Top 10 team. Unfortunately, on any given day they could be bottom 100 and so they're stuck in a play-in game. They got swept by Clemson and if they lose again, they'll be 19-12 with three losses to a team that is also on the bubble.
Let's go ahead and put one more Big East team in the Dance. Whoever goes further between WVU and DePaul is in the Dance. I know Depaul has a ton of losses, but they're pretty much identical to FSU (as far as I can tell) which gets them there if they win a couple in the Big East tourney. Of course, since 'Nova's on the bubble, they seem destined to struggle in the first round. WVU's win over UCLA counts more than people think.
Let's go ahead and extend an invite to Old Dominion. They beat Drexel twice in the head-to-head, and knocked off Georgetown. Somebody has to go in from the CAA; if they only get one bid, the tourney's heads will be on the line.
Let's go ahead and put in Missouri State over Kansas State.
It's a tough call to do this, but I think Kansas State has failed to impress; down the stretch, they had a number of chances to get to 11 wins in the Big 12 (a sure lock) but failed, most notably going down in flames to Nebraska. They beat Texas; Missouri State beat Wisconsin. Which is more impressive?
Sweeping Bradley is probably more impressive than sweeping Missouri, which is something Missouri State has in its favor. They also have history in their favor; they were in an identical position last year and got screwed. That history is on their side.
If K-State beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 tourney, we'll talk. Personally, I think Bob Knight won't let that happen.
What are the Wildcards?
Here are five quick scenarios I forsee that could really make life interesting for the bracket committee:
1) Washington makes it to the Pac-10 final.
They'll have to be in at that point, as they'll have beaten Oregon, UCLA, and USC at least once, probably twice. Now they would be .500 in the conference, and they're a hot team right now, making this utterly possible. Do you bounce Stanford? I can't imagine why you would. Seven Pac-10 teams would have people screaming.
2) New Mexico State makes it to WAC final.
Yuck. NMSU now stands at like 24 or 25 wins, which you have to weigh differently because they were on their home court for the conference tourney. They knocked off Fresno in the semis, so you know they're decent. What do you do?
3) Michigan beats OSU in the quarters.
This is a problem, because now Michigan has shown success against a number one seed. You'll definitely have to re-evaluate the whole Big 10, as they might have six legit teams.
4) SEC West Team in Final.
You'll note that this is probably the most likely of any of the circumstances; although you would think that Kentucky might end Alabama's hopes in a panicked "we might be on the bubble sort of way." Ole Miss and Mississippi State are the one and two seeds, and might fall victim to UK in a similar way. Georgia/Ole Miss should be a good one. It should be a wild tournament.
5) Air Force loses to Wyoming.
Now Air Force would have to sit squarely on the bubble, with four consecutive losses going into the Dance. They lost @ TCU, the worst team in the conference. SDSU's about as convincing at this point. What do you do? How much do victories over Stanford and Texas Tech count at this point?
posted by mike at 5:26 PM
6 Comments:
Butler loses... and we're down to four more bubble spots available. Of the mid-majors, I think the MVC, MWC, the CAA are guaranteed multiple bids at this point. (A second CAA team not making it would be a slap in the face. I was personally pulling for Drexel after it gave the rest of Philly a nice smack in the face earlier this year, but you're right... it's going to be ODU.) Anyway, the rest of bubble better pray that Nevada and Xavier both win their conference tourney's, otherwise we could be down to 2... and believe me when I say that's eminently possible. I don't think any of the rest of the multiple bid conferences will have to deal with a team playing their way in - possibly a bubble team winning the tourney, but not someone on the outside looking in. I'm going to come down in the middle of 4 and 2 and say 3 bubble spots are available. (Xavier winning the A-10 tourney seems a 50-50 shot at best to me. Although if they lose, I suppose that would put them square on the bubble, but if it's in the semi-finals or finals, I don't think they have to worry. Their resume is half a notch better than the likes of Mo. State.)
My three are Mo. St., ODU, and Purdue if the season ended right now (sorry Drexel). But really (since Mo. St. and ODU have already finished) it becomes a game of last man (or men if 2 spots open up) standing in conference tourney's between Purdue, Illinois, West Virginia, Clemson, and since they aren't that far behind we'll throw in K-State, Michigan, FSU, and Depaul.
I really take issue with not throwing Michigan in there since their profile is no worse than FSU, K-State, and Depaul. Or is it that since they will draw OSU in the Big Ten Tourney, their season is de facto, over? If Michigan does beat OSU (as they almost did last week), they become identical to WVU having nothing of any substance except for one huge win to keep them in the tourney with and about 10-15 spots better in the RPI (after they beat OSU). I don't think WVU is going to make it by the way. Clemson is still on life support, but beating BC was nice. I think the committee does look at who's come on strong at the end, which gives Clemson a severe handicap... so they need at least one more marquee win to show they belong with the other ACC big boys making FSU/Clemson not a play in since I think both need two to get in, unless every other bubble team goes down in flames.
We'll see my friend... this is only the beginning.
Sorry... of course the Horizon is getting 2 bids as well now... this being the whole basis of my revisions. Forgot to mention that in the multiple bid mid-majors part.
Michigan's profile is significantly worse than FSU/K-State/DePaul because of the lack of a signature win. They have to beat OSU to have any chance of dancing.
Down goes DePaul... no dancing for them. If WVU goes down tonight they're done too.
Xavier's in... no question. They beat three other bubble teams in 'Nova, Illinois, and Kansas State, as well as UMass.
Depaul had quality wins... and also some of the most wretched awful losses of any bubble team in the country - the street has to go both ways. Do you reward consistency or inconsistency with flashes of greatness? I suppose you have to give them credit for scheduling and winning against tough opponents, but at the same time Michigan has no bad losses and wins against Michigan State, Indiana, and Purdue in Big 10 play. All home games and not against marquee teams, but all RPI top 50. By the logic you just applied to Xavier, that should put them in. (OK, not exactly the same logic...) But let's compare Illinois and Michigan real quick - they're the same team. Michigan played a slightly tougher big 10 schedule and ended up 1 behind Illinois in the conference. They played identically crappy non-conference schedules, but Illinois' RPI is 15 spots higher because they have LOSES to Maryland and Arizona - looks can be decieving my friend. I also looked at K-State and K-State's win against Texas isn't enough to de facto put them ahead of Michigan either. In fact, looking at K-State's schedule, I'd say they have more work to do than Michigan - the Big 12 north is absolute crap outside of Kansas. Although, it'll be fun to see a KU-K-State rivalry game once Bob Huggins has K-State in the top 20 next year. I don't think Illinois, Michigan, or K-State deserve an at large right now, but I give Michigan a better shot than K-State, FSU, and pre-ousted Depaul at getting one because if they beat OSU (the opportunity of a lifetime), that has to make the resume right? OSU at a neutral sight and a couple other good Big 10 wins, a winning record in conference (with tourney play included), no bad losses, playing better towards tournament time... This puts Michigan no further out than Clemson and FSU who basically have the same scenario in that they would have beat UNC in the ACC tourney to vault out of bubbleland. How can you say that one team is not even on the bubble when if they have to accomplish an identical feat as someone else on it must, they'd be in. And no, FSU/Clemson was never a play in game. I know you considered this "wild card" of Michigan beating OSU, but do you seriously expect Clemson or FSU to beat UNC? How would FSU getting to the ACC semis not be a "wild card"?
Finally, I've gone over it and Mo. State is going to get left out again this year. Too many opportunities for other teams to pass them up, I think. Sorry Mo. State. You'll never get the chance to stick it to Billy Packer.
Michigan has NO meaningful road wins.
Illinois won at Bradley and Missouri; FSU won at Duke.
Michigan, FSU, and Illinois have all been waxed by better teams at some point in the year. The loss at Purdue is most damning for the Illini, but Michigan got pasted pretty much every time they went on the road, and also lost to Iowa at home. FSU, on the other hand, got waxed on the road by Maryland, Wisconsin, Pitt, and UNC but was relatively close in their other games. They have a signature win over Florida and at Duke; they blew out Maryland at their place and beat Virginia Tech. Maryland, Duke, and Florida are simply better teams than Michigan State, Illinois, and Indiana, which is why I like the 'Noles here.
If we're gonna hang FSU on their road losses, we'd better hang the Wolverines first. 92-55 loss to UCLA? 67-53 at Purdue? 59-44 at Michigan State? This team has shown no ability to win on the road, and would be marginal at a neutral site. When OSU waxes them tomorrow, they'll be through.
That's it. I'm calling it... Michigan over OSU - just to spite you mon frère. Michigan State has about as many meaningful road wins as Michigan (check it out)... yet because Neitzel went stark raving mad from beyond the arc against Wisconsin (at home) they are a "lock". And since when is beating a team whose only wins against other tourney teams are Wright State and VCU a "quality" road win. I like Bradley - I'll give you that it's a decent win that help's Illinois cause. But quite frankly I think Michigan could have won at Bradley. (Sure, it's their fault for not scheduling it... but still...) We'll see if Bradley is still an RPI top 50 team by the weekend. I'm not saying Michigan is a better team or has a better resume than Illinois or K-State or FSU. I'm saying the difference is marginal at best and therefor warrants consideration. FSU probably got the shaft with injuries, so I'll put them at the top of the heap right now because that road win at Duke is the only distinguishing characteristic of any of these teams. But FSU and Michigan both face the same task. Beat a top 10 team and get in the tournament.
My 5 bubble teams right now are ODU, Purdue, Air Force, FSU, and Mo. State as the last one in for now. (Air Force loses 4 in row... now back on the bubble... although can I get a what what for Drexel? Now there's a team with quality road wins.)
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