Thursday, December 07, 2006

Dance-A-Thon, 2006, or "Why I wasted my entire night previewing bowl games."

I am bringing a more aggresive, "hard-style" element to my bowl preview this year. No longer will I care whether or not my predictions are correct, as long as I have something witty to say about each bowl.

Poinsettia Bowl

Honestly, I don't know why they're even bothering with this one, but TCU has been on a roll lately and is playing Northern Illinois in a bowl which looks to entertain around twenty-five local residents, no doubt wanting to see if Garrett Wolfe is the next Michael "the burner" Turner, since both went to Northern Illinois.

TCU 31, Northern Illinois 20

Las Vegas Bowl

This should be a fun bowl. BYU is a pretty sweet team. Recall, Oregon beat Oklahoma earlier this year, so they're a very good team...

Now, does the last part of that sentence need to have some distinguishing punctuation letting everyone know that I'm being sarcastic, or is this lengthy aside enough to fully drive the point home?

BYU 45, Oregon 38

New Orleans Bowl

If you go to espn.com, Mel Kiper claims that the New Orleans Bowl will be "quite a show." I wonder if this is because ESPN is showing the game. I seem to remember Southern Miss beating the *%$% out of Arkansas State last year, but maybe this will be different since Rice isn't nearly as good as Southern Miss. Of course, I'm only kidding, Rice fans. Southern Miss and Rice both had the same conference record this year, whatever that means.

I'm also trying to decide whether Rice's loss by 45 at Texas or Troy's loss by 56 at Nebraska is worse. I think the worst part of the whole matter is that both teams will put down Rice/Troy as being bowl teams that they played last year.

Troy 41, Rice 28.

Papajohns.com Bowl

First, Papa Johns is based out of Louisville, not Birmingham. I would know, since they liked monopolizing the pizza on my undergrad campus.

Now, South Florida has a legitimate win over West Virginia here, which will automatically make them the favorite. But two things are working against South Florida here: one, they'll be favorites in this one, which seems ridiculous on a more philosophical level. Two, they'll be playing a team that has played a number of teams very close this year and is about due to win a big game.

I know, the first sentence and the second sentence of the last paragraph seem to contradict, but if you're as "aware" as I am of the realities that exist in college football, the logic is obvious.

East Carolina 21, South Florida 17

New Mexico Bowl

Why does 6-6 New Mexico get to host 8-4 San Jose State in a home game? Here's a better question: why is New Mexico in a bowl at all? They lost to a 1-AA team.

Oh, who cares. Take the Lobos at home, but just by a few, since San Jose State is probably better.

New Mexico 35, San Jose State 31.

Armed Forces Bowl

I don't know anything about either Tulsa or Utah. Honestly, Utah is probably the choice simply based on their record as of late.

Utah 31, Tulsa 28

Hawaii Bowl

I think the way Hawaii conducts their program is borderline B.S.: they come up with a run-and-shoot, gimmick offense that basically throws teams off their game, then they come up with some scam so that they always get to host a bowl game, because the travel costs are too high. Here's a novel idea: you're a football team in Hawaii- you shouldn't get special breaks for being down there, you shouldn't get to host free bowl games, and you should be compelled by law to play some defense.

That being said, I think Colt Brennan and the Rainbow Warriors have significantly more class than Arizona State does; Arizona State screwed a pretty good senior QB for no good reason earlier in the year, and they royally underachieved. They get rewarded by getting to go to Hawaii; they should have to go to Birmingham, Detroit, or Albuquerque. That's about the correct reward for losing almost all of your meaningful games this year.

Hawaii 52, Arizona State 28

Motor City Bowl

It's been a tough ride for Middle Tennessee against the big conferences this year; MTSU took it on the chin against South Carolina, Louisville, and Oklahoma. Things went a little smoother for Central Michigan: they almost beat Boston College and Kentucky, and did pretty well in the MAC.

Why does this matter? Quite simply, it matters because MTSU is going on the road to play a team probably better than it is.

Central Michigan 45, MTSU 20

Emerald Bowl

Here's a game where defense will matter: neither team has any idea about what's happening on offense, but that won't stop them from punishing the opposition on defense. Just recall that FSU gave Florida more of a game than the Gators wanted, and that Wake Forest's shutout of the 'Noles included a 51-yard field goal and an INT return for a touchdown before you question the logic. We know UCLA can play defense- and UCLA's meager ability to play better on offense gives them the edge in this game.

UCLA 14, Florida State 10

Independence Bowl

I'll be attending this game this year, and I think the crowd will be heavily pro-Tide. To give some indication of how tough the SEC is, consider the fact that Alabama hasn't really been given credit for any quality wins this year, despite the fact that they held Hawaii to only 17 points. Look for the Tide's defense to keep this one as a low-scoring battle.

I'll take the SEC over the Big 12 all day as a conference, but Alabama may not have enough firepower to stop Oklahoma State's hotshot QB Bobby Reid.

Oklahoma State 20, Alabama 13

Texas Bowl

I think this one might be a bad scene for Kansas State if Rutgers comes in angry. I look for Ray Rice and Brian Leonard to dominate, hard-style. Kansas State lost to Baylor and Kansas, for crying out loud!

Rutgers 28, Kansas State 13

Holiday Bowl

Every year, the Holiday Bowl ends up being one of the best games to watch. This year should be no exception, as two talented teams who may have underacheived square off. Texas A & M is only a few points away from a BCS game; Cal should probably have beaten USC and won the Pac-1o, but their pass defense let them down at the end. Jeff Tedford teams have had streaky bowl play, which leads me to think that a more solid Aggie squad should seal the deal here.

What will really be an interesting question is if Texas A & M is actually "back."

Texas A & M 24, Cal 20

Music City Bowl

I like Kentucky football. I think that the program has turned the corner and is going to be a force in the SEC for years to come. I think they have a huge advantage in fan support for this game, and I think that Andre Woodson can single-handedly keep a football team in most games. He's that good.

And if you want me to pick Kentucky over a clearly better Clemson team with James Davis, you're using logic I can't support.

Clemson 38, Kentucky 27

Sun Bowl

I guess people should care about an Oregon State/Missouri showdown. Chase Daniel's an interesting QB, right? Oregon State beat USC! Offense! High-Scoring!

And then we all remember that it's Oregon State versus Missouri in El Paso, Texas.

Missouri 30, Oregon State 28

Liberty Bowl

I like Steve Spurrier and his offense, but if you don't know who Kevin Kolb is, you're in for a "quasi-treat." This guy is a pretty good QB.

On a side note, this reminds me of playing football with some random people in a Memphis parking lot two years ago. Oh wait, those random people were my good friends. Really, I don't remember anything at all.

South Carolina 24, Houston 20

Insight Bowl

Minnesota should not be in a bowl game. Obviously, I have to blame Iowa for this one. Texas Tech shouldn't really be in a bowl game, but the logic is more philosophical and less explicit. Due to these obvious differences in logic, I'm picking the Red Raiders in another meaningless shootout.

Texas Tech 49, Minnesota 31

Champs Sports Bowl

I suppose that Purdue is a good enough football team, but they have zero quality wins this year, unless you want to count Indiana, Minnesota, and Michigan State as quality wins. I apologize to my Boiler-making friends; all I can do is report the facts.

After looking at Maryland's late-season demise, I can't help but think that this game is evenly matched. Really, I'd like to take the Terps in this one, and I probably would, but I saw them play West Virginia and they looked terrible.

Purdue 17, Maryland 9

Meineke Bowl

You know, this bowl has taken a lot of crap for its corporate-style name, but it actually has a decent matchup, which is more than we can say for the last three bowls. I probably like Boston College from an emotional point of view, and I would also like to say that B.C. has had a number of quality wins this year, and deserves some credit for those wins.

This game might be interesting from a stylistic point of view. Represent.

Boston College 23, Navy 14

Alamo Bowl

This might be an ok matchup, or it might be one of the biggest mismatches on the face of Earth. Really, how am I supposed to know?

I'll take Colt McCoy and the 'Horns by like 17 in this one, but watch out for Drew Tate- he actually does well in bowl games.

Texas 41, Iowa 20

Chick-Fil-A Bowl

Here's the thing about the SEC- you always feel like their games are legitimate, and that their teams have a chance to compete in any game. Even though Georgia has had an outright lousy season, they still beat Auburn and Georgia Tech and are a legitimately scary opponent for almost anyone at this point. They're playing in the Georgia Dome, and should really have a big-time advantage in this game.

The only reason I used "should" in the last sentence is the fact that Virginia Tech is normally tough in big games, especially in domes, and since they've been on a huge winning streak as of late you have to think they'll be a tough out. After the Holiday Bowl (and maybe the Vegas Bowl) this is the first "must-watch" game of the holiday season.

Georgia 21, Va. Tech 17

MPC Computers Bowl

I watched part of the Cremaster Cycle with one of my roommates a long time ago. I seem to remember blue turf being involved- I might be wrong. Really, whenever I think of Boise, Idaho, I kind of think of that movie.

That, and I also think of the time when I was eight and my parents and I went to the Boise Zoo- the moose was shedding and missing like half of its fur and there was a Todd Zeile 1992 Topps card in the donations box.

I think that if you could make some sort of analogy comparing the Todd Zeile card to an angry moose, you would have a good idea about the scale of mismatch we're seeing here. Whatever the line is on Miami, bet it- Larry Coker will have some angry 'Canes in Boise.

Miami 56, Nevada 14

Outback Bowl

This game features a great offense and a "not-so-great" offense. It features a great defense and a "so-so" defense.

I'll take the "so-so" defense over the "not-so-great" offense any day of the week.

Tennessee 24, Penn State 10

Gator Bowl

I just don't think that Georgia Tech has enough weapons to compete with West Virginia in this game, but I could be wrong.

West Virginia 35, Georgia Tech 13

Cotton Bowl

Is Nebraska a good team, or not? I don't know, but I think Auburn might be better, even though I don't like that QB of theirs.

It has been tough for me to pick against the SEC in many of these posts because I simply feel that, given Tennessee's dominance over Cal, Georgia's victory over Georgia Tech, South Carolina's victory over Clemson, and even Alabama's victory over Hawaii, that the SEC is the best conference, and has acquitted itself more than suitably to be favored in most of these games.

Auburn 21, Nebraska 7

Capital One Bowl

I'm going to preface this by saying that you should never go against your better judgment.

So when I pick Wisconsin to beat Arkansas, realize that this flies in the face of my current beliefs. Essentially, I'm picking the Badgers because I want them to win, and because I think that in a fair world, a team with a reasonably able QB and a good running game should outplay a team without a reasonably able QB and a good running game.

Yeah, I saw Darren McFadden and Felix Jones against LSU, Florida, and Auburn. I know I'm rolling the dice with this one. I know that Wisconsin has beaten no great teams this year.

I just think that I'm picking too many SEC teams and that Wisconsin probably deserves a BCS bid. I'll take the Badgers, even though I'm aware that their stats are heavily Big-1o bloated.

Wisconsin 28, Arkansas 24

Fiesta Bowl

Dr. Jekyll: For some reason, I think that Boise will keep this game much closer than the experts say. Ian Johnson was an All-American, and their offense is much better than it gets credit for. They destroyed Oregon State, and are facing the biggest game in their history. They'll be more ready than Oklahoma, and have a great chance to pull the upset.

Mr. Hyde: I'm lying. Adrian Peterson will run these fools into the ground. Bob Stoops is the best coach here. Oklahoma's D will sodomize the Broncos in a manner that could only be approximated by multiple pine cones.

Jekyll: Hyde, you're so eloquent when you're angry.

Hyde: I know. Jekyll, get me some Tostitos.

Oklahoma 28, Boise State 10

Rose Bowl

Sometimes when I listen to Spoon's "Paper Tiger," I have to think of USC, because that's the way I feel about them as an organization.

Why does USC get to play every meaningful game at home? I want this team to go on the road to a hostile SEC/Big 10 environment and just see what happens.

Editor's Note: We tried that with Arkansas and Notre Dame.

Ok, so scratch the last argument. Where USC actually ends up playing is sort of irrelevant, since they seem to play much better than their soft appearance would indicate. I think that this is the best USC defense we've ever seen. Period. They'll be a better matchup than you would think for Michigan for that reason. Michigan has a lot of heart. They've been playing on it all year. However, the OSU game probably wasn't as close as the final score, and this is another road game. I like Mike Hart and Chad Henne as much as probably any college football player on Earth, which is why I hesitate with this pick:

USC 27, Michigan 20

Orange Bowl

A small part of me thinks that Wake has a legitimate chance to pull the upset because nobody is giving them a chance and they are going to be ticked off about it.

Then I remember that I'm one of those people. Brian Brohm, Kolby Smith, Mario Urrutia, Harry Douglas... hard-style.

Louisville 38, Wake 14

Sugar Bowl

It might be one of those "wrong place, wrong time" stories for Brady Quinn this year. Brady caught Michigan at the wrong time (when they were at their peak) and USC at the wrong place (on the road in late November when USC was trying for the BCS championship game). This time he's got to face an LSU team that is equally as hungry, since they are facing a prospect of being ranked #2 when all of this is said and done.

Let's hope for Quinn's sake that this type of scenario doesn't plague his NFL career. Oakland, your savior is coming.

LSU 28, Notre Dame 21

International Bowl

There's not much that's international about this bowl; really, it should be inter-regional. I guess both Cincinnati and Western Michigan fans can make it to Toronto, but I think that the fact that they might have to have passports will really hurt attendance. After all, the U.S. government won't be inclined to rush-deliver for this one.

Cincinnati 20, Western Michigan 10

GMAC Bowl

I don't think that these lesser bowls should be allowed to play after New Year's. It's sort of like offering Bagel Bites before a filet mignon. You really just don't do it.

However, I do have to mention that I really like Frank Solich and am glad that he is back in the winners' circle. I think that the way Nebraska treated that guy was inexcusable. I'll take Southern Miss in what essentially amounts to a home game, but I respect Ohio.

Southern Miss 34, Ohio 29

I will save the big game for later, friends.

4 Comments:

Blogger John Lorenz said...

No need to apologize to Boilermakers. Their defense sucks and the offense doesn't play well against good defenses. I cannot, however, share your endorsement of the future of Kentucky footbal. Is this the 5th or 6th time they've "turned the corner?" I completely understand they use lose their coach when that happens, but "force in the SEC" is a bit ludicrous. They're better than they were, but I'd be surprised if they were to crack the top 4 in the SEC.

10:44 PM  
Blogger mike said...

Wow, I had no idea I wrote "force in the SEC." I guess I meant "socially acceptable."

Yeah, top 4 status in that conference ain't happening.

8:30 AM  
Blogger John Lorenz said...

In reference to Oakland's savior, were you referring to Jamarcus Russel?

I should hope so...

11:33 AM  
Blogger Unknown said...

We need a new blog entry, Mike.

8:00 AM  

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