The Case Against Air Force....
I am painfully aware of how good Air Force was until January 16.
Air Force was an obvious lock two weeks ago. Their record was still strong; and they had all the marquee wins from the pre-conference season and looked like a tournament team.
Then they lost their last four games.
Now we look at Air Force and we have to wonder. Air Force beat Santa Clara, Stanford, Texas Tech, Wake, Colorado, Long Beach State, and GW in the early part of the year. That's huge, and their RPI shows it. Based on this, they are IN. GW is likely going to the dance. Air Force is IN.
Air Force also lost their last four games, putting themselves far behind BYU and UNLV as the best two teams in their conference. They lost to the worst team in their conference (TCU), and, with bubble status at stake, lost to a very marginal Wyoming team. Based on this, they are OUT. They are way OUT.
Why does the OUT outweigh the IN?
The answer is partially this: Air Force isn't the only team who had a huge stretch in the out-of-conference.
Appalachian State and Drexel came up huge out-of-conference, as did Nevada. These teams performed significantly better in conference at the end than Air Force did. All three of them lost in their conference tourneys toward the end. Air Force lost in the first round. Nevada is in, Appalachian State is likely out and Drexel is the sexy pick to be in.
Another answer is this: What makes Air Force different from Florida State and Purdue? At this point, not a whole helluva lot. All three teams have marquee wins, although the obvious case is that FSU's marquee wins outshine Air Force's. All three teams have bad losses, with FSU's losses being marginally worse than the other guys. All three teams are fatally flawed; Purdue can't win on the road, Air Force doesn't even look like the same team as the early part of the season suggests, and FSU is kinda too little, too late.
Why is Air Force different from ODU and Illinois?
They have similar records, but different trends.
Consider this: ODU is in because omitting them would be egregious at this point. Their loss was bad luck, not a sign of something else. For some reason, George Mason gets all happy when tourney time comes and plays outrageously well. ODU beat Toledo, G'Town, Drexel twice, VCU, Richmond, and UAB and is in.
Illinois is in because they played their way in, beating Indiana and Penn State to punch their ticket. I thought they were out but now I think they're in. Call me fickle.
Why else is Air Force screwed?
Some people have Arkansas in, and maybe they deserve it now. Their out-of-conference doesn't seem that bad anymore.
K-State is probably out, because I think OK State punches their ticket if they beat Texas. That'll knock out Texas Tech too since they lost to Air Force.
Here's the bottom line: if Air Force had wanted to go to the tournament, they should have gotten pumped up to beat Wyoming and should have taken out TCU. With these two losses, they put themselves in a position to be watching teams like OK State, Arkansas, and Illinois take their spots; this has happened now. I don't think the committee's gonna put in a team that's likely at this point to lose in the first round, and I think Air Force is done.
-mike
Air Force was an obvious lock two weeks ago. Their record was still strong; and they had all the marquee wins from the pre-conference season and looked like a tournament team.
Then they lost their last four games.
Now we look at Air Force and we have to wonder. Air Force beat Santa Clara, Stanford, Texas Tech, Wake, Colorado, Long Beach State, and GW in the early part of the year. That's huge, and their RPI shows it. Based on this, they are IN. GW is likely going to the dance. Air Force is IN.
Air Force also lost their last four games, putting themselves far behind BYU and UNLV as the best two teams in their conference. They lost to the worst team in their conference (TCU), and, with bubble status at stake, lost to a very marginal Wyoming team. Based on this, they are OUT. They are way OUT.
Why does the OUT outweigh the IN?
The answer is partially this: Air Force isn't the only team who had a huge stretch in the out-of-conference.
Appalachian State and Drexel came up huge out-of-conference, as did Nevada. These teams performed significantly better in conference at the end than Air Force did. All three of them lost in their conference tourneys toward the end. Air Force lost in the first round. Nevada is in, Appalachian State is likely out and Drexel is the sexy pick to be in.
Another answer is this: What makes Air Force different from Florida State and Purdue? At this point, not a whole helluva lot. All three teams have marquee wins, although the obvious case is that FSU's marquee wins outshine Air Force's. All three teams have bad losses, with FSU's losses being marginally worse than the other guys. All three teams are fatally flawed; Purdue can't win on the road, Air Force doesn't even look like the same team as the early part of the season suggests, and FSU is kinda too little, too late.
Why is Air Force different from ODU and Illinois?
They have similar records, but different trends.
Consider this: ODU is in because omitting them would be egregious at this point. Their loss was bad luck, not a sign of something else. For some reason, George Mason gets all happy when tourney time comes and plays outrageously well. ODU beat Toledo, G'Town, Drexel twice, VCU, Richmond, and UAB and is in.
Illinois is in because they played their way in, beating Indiana and Penn State to punch their ticket. I thought they were out but now I think they're in. Call me fickle.
Why else is Air Force screwed?
Some people have Arkansas in, and maybe they deserve it now. Their out-of-conference doesn't seem that bad anymore.
K-State is probably out, because I think OK State punches their ticket if they beat Texas. That'll knock out Texas Tech too since they lost to Air Force.
Here's the bottom line: if Air Force had wanted to go to the tournament, they should have gotten pumped up to beat Wyoming and should have taken out TCU. With these two losses, they put themselves in a position to be watching teams like OK State, Arkansas, and Illinois take their spots; this has happened now. I don't think the committee's gonna put in a team that's likely at this point to lose in the first round, and I think Air Force is done.
-mike
posted by mike at 11:42 AM
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