Air Force is dancin'
Joe Lunardi currently has Air Force as a #9 seed. You may think this is high for a team with a 4-game losing streak including loses to TCU and Wyoming. Let's take a quick gander at who in the tournament hashad losing streaks of 3-4 games this season: Florida, Duke, MichiganState, Marquette, Syracuse (not comprehensive.) You say, "John...those teams lost 3 or 4 in major conferences... that's forgivable -no TCU or Wyomings involved." Okay, but Butler has lost 4 of it'slast 10... 3 in the mighty mighty Horizon league which is no MWC.
"Butler has a better resume."
Okay... Creighton lost 3 of 4 in theMVC at one point and had some pretty bad non-conference losses. (I think Creighton has been looking tough, but their RPI is at 20, which is astounding to me. It kind of gives me a little insight as to how Missouri State got left out last year.)The difference with Air Force's bad streak is that it came at the wrong damn time, homey. You do not want to head into the NCAA losers of 4 straight.But each of those teams listed, either played themselves off the bubble subsequently, or reclaimed previous form to re-solidify their tournament position. 2 weeks does not a season make. Air Force has shown that, up to the last 2 weeks, they were not just a tournament team,but one who could conceivably make a sweet sixteen. How does one play themselves out of a Tourney Bid? Sustained horridness. (See Clemson, Oklahoma State, and Wichita State.) While Air Force's sins over the past 2 weeks have been bad, they haven't been mortal. They finished tied for 3rd in a league that was thought a lock to get 3 bids up until this week. That should still put them in, right? What about the other team in 3rd? Air Force has a win at Stanford and a win against Texas Tech to back it up. San Diego State doesn't have those wins. The Mountain West is arguably the best Mid-Major conference in the country. (MVC probably barely edges them out... just slightly.)
But the most compelling argument is the "Who's going in ahead of Air Force?" argument. A lot of the Bubble Teams have had futile conference tourney runs. West Virginia, Depaul, Clemson, and Michigan are all out after failing to get a marquee win to boost bubblicious resumes. FSU is maybe in, but not ahead of Air Force after losing to UNC. Kansas State is in the middle of a game effort against Texas Tech, but if they lose, that win against Texas just isn't strong enough to support an NCAA case. In other words, the number of teams who can play themselves ahead of Air Force has dwindled to the point where they may be in by default. And even still, check out their resume..
Without getting into too much detail about "quality wins", "bad losses", and the mess that is the RPI in too much detail, they still have their work up until those last to weeks to put them in. Ending on a high note definitely makes an impression on the committee, but they do look at the whole season... if they didn't, Butler is a bubble team since they punched their ticket in the first month of the season.Hey... stick 'em in there as a number 10 seed and whose to say they don't revert to their old form a la Florida and still make a run to the sweet 16? That's the beauty of the tournament. By the way, John's 6 Bubble teams in (if Air Force is now a bubble team and we have to throw Stanford back on there as they didn't take advantage of the opportunities they had...) are Air Force, ODU, (I worry too much), FSU, Purdue (about to get a big win over Iowa), Illinois (almost a lock if they best Indiana), and K-State, since I'm smelling a win over Texas Tech right now. In the event Illinois or K-State loses, I'm putting Drexel in over Missouri State. (Drexel has "done more" than Missouri State.) although those are the last 2 out for me, for now. Mississippi State has randomly decided to make a go of things by beating UK. They are a win away from displacing a team that's ahead of them. Also, West Virginia was game against U ofL - mere competitiveness in conference tourney's have translated into bids before - but I don't see it happening. I'll just say they aren't completely dead yet.
"Butler has a better resume."
Okay... Creighton lost 3 of 4 in theMVC at one point and had some pretty bad non-conference losses. (I think Creighton has been looking tough, but their RPI is at 20, which is astounding to me. It kind of gives me a little insight as to how Missouri State got left out last year.)The difference with Air Force's bad streak is that it came at the wrong damn time, homey. You do not want to head into the NCAA losers of 4 straight.But each of those teams listed, either played themselves off the bubble subsequently, or reclaimed previous form to re-solidify their tournament position. 2 weeks does not a season make. Air Force has shown that, up to the last 2 weeks, they were not just a tournament team,but one who could conceivably make a sweet sixteen. How does one play themselves out of a Tourney Bid? Sustained horridness. (See Clemson, Oklahoma State, and Wichita State.) While Air Force's sins over the past 2 weeks have been bad, they haven't been mortal. They finished tied for 3rd in a league that was thought a lock to get 3 bids up until this week. That should still put them in, right? What about the other team in 3rd? Air Force has a win at Stanford and a win against Texas Tech to back it up. San Diego State doesn't have those wins. The Mountain West is arguably the best Mid-Major conference in the country. (MVC probably barely edges them out... just slightly.)
But the most compelling argument is the "Who's going in ahead of Air Force?" argument. A lot of the Bubble Teams have had futile conference tourney runs. West Virginia, Depaul, Clemson, and Michigan are all out after failing to get a marquee win to boost bubblicious resumes. FSU is maybe in, but not ahead of Air Force after losing to UNC. Kansas State is in the middle of a game effort against Texas Tech, but if they lose, that win against Texas just isn't strong enough to support an NCAA case. In other words, the number of teams who can play themselves ahead of Air Force has dwindled to the point where they may be in by default. And even still, check out their resume.
Without getting into too much detail about "quality wins", "bad losses", and the mess that is the RPI in too much detail, they still have their work up until those last to weeks to put them in. Ending on a high note definitely makes an impression on the committee, but they do look at the whole season... if they didn't, Butler is a bubble team since they punched their ticket in the first month of the season.Hey... stick 'em in there as a number 10 seed and whose to say they don't revert to their old form a la Florida and still make a run to the sweet 16? That's the beauty of the tournament. By the way, John's 6 Bubble teams in (if Air Force is now a bubble team and we have to throw Stanford back on there as they didn't take advantage of the opportunities they had...) are Air Force, ODU, (I worry too much), FSU, Purdue (about to get a big win over Iowa), Illinois (almost a lock if they best Indiana), and K-State, since I'm smelling a win over Texas Tech right now. In the event Illinois or K-State loses, I'm putting Drexel in over Missouri State. (Drexel has "done more" than Missouri State.) although those are the last 2 out for me, for now. Mississippi State has randomly decided to make a go of things by beating UK. They are a win away from displacing a team that's ahead of them. Also, West Virginia was game against U ofL - mere competitiveness in conference tourney's have translated into bids before - but I don't see it happening. I'll just say they aren't completely dead yet.
posted by mike at 1:17 PM
4 Comments:
Air Force is screwed now. I concede.
Final last 4 in for me:
ODU
Illinois
Purdue
Drexel
Last 6 Out:
Florida State
Kansas State
Stanford
Air Force
Appalacian State
Arkansas
Concievably, from Drexel down could end out out... a surprise appearance from Appalacian State is seeming more and more concievable considering 2 things: the emphasis on giving mid-majors their due this year and the fact that no one is really confortable giving the Big 6 six teams despite the fact that the committee says that they don't put a number on conferences. Lunardi has Drexel in over ODU today... and as much as I think Drexel deserves it, how do you justify keeping ODU out when then swept Drexel? We will see in 2.5 hours.
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Also, I wanted to chime in quickly on the NBA's age rule...
Should players be able to make the decision to enter the NBA when they feel like it? Absolutely.
...BUT, does the NBA have right to say, "Our product is suffering due to inexperience."? Absolutely... they're the boss. All they are essentially doing is putting a "Minimum 1 years experience" on the job application. If they're actually right about that or night is matter of debate. Really, they shouldn't have to do this, but a combination of terrible GM's and ignorant high school players being controlled by delusional or unethical agents let this spiral out of control. Who hasn't complained about the summer shoe camps for high schoolers?
Now as for Bob Knight's assertion that the NBA age rule hurts the college game because the players don't have to attend classes to be eligible for that one season. It hurts the integrity he says. I can imagine 2 scenario's for student's who think they are on the one and done path.
1) They find out they are not nearly as good as they think they are and don't go after the first year. If they haven't been going to class they will be suspended or kicked out which should send up red flags to NBA GM's. This will force the college student to either get their act together, or leave school (which they never intended to go to in the first place) and go the semi-pro or foreign route. So this either benefits the student (who is forced to get an education since his basketball future is dubious at best) or the end up where they would have in the first place.
2) They are actually a "one and done" talent. If they didn't go to class during that year, and the coach was complicit in it, they should get slapped with NCAA violations - it's not like college basketball has been the bastion of integrity anyway. When's the last time we talked about Clem Haskins? Take Pitino and Caracter... Caracter wasn't going to class (among other things), so Pitino suspended him even though he probably could have let it slide. Coaches need to police this... or the NCAA has to get tougher on eligibility rules as pertaining to class attendance. If you don't want the hassle, then don't recruit these one-and-done players. There aren't more than 5 of these tops in a given year... and probably about a dozen more that think they are, but they're bad news anyway.
Bottom line, I'm just not buying the integrity arguement. Even if they are attending college without the expectation of going to classes - that's on the program who probably offered them free shoes, a cushy summer job, or a house for their parents. Argue about whether or not this is a good thing for the NBA or college basketball or Kevin Durant or Greg Oden. (I'm going with yes, yes, and unless Durant and Oden are in dire need for the money, I'd say they are enjoying their college experience, unless they suffer some catastrophic injury... but only they could answer that. Thad Matta claims Greg Oden was never interested in the NBA in the first place. I don't know if I believe it, but it's possible.) So, the NBA hurting college basketball's hallowed perfect integrity? Right... and Barry Bonds never did roids... and all the atheletes in the Olympics are clean...
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