march madNESS

the revolution will not be televised in many locales.

unless you went to your local sports bar, it is unlikely that you saw the evolution of basketball as we know it.

last night, i was watching memphis and nevada. nevada is a pretty decent team, with nick fazekas, a center who is destined to enter the league as a career backup. fazekas is decidely weak; he commits silly fouls and lacks a dominant defensive presence. still, his skills in college have parlayed into a potential pro career, as teams are always looking for some sort of big man who can rebound and shoot. whatever.

we shouldn't take away from the memphis tigers, a team that has quickly become one of my favorite teams to watch. they are truly remarkable. here is a team that is 324th in free throw shooting, yet basically doesn't give a damn about that fact, insisting rather to drive to the rim on every possession. periodically, for kicks, of course, they run a play, which generally consists of someone cutting to the basket and getting an open dunk. memphis has apparently decided that putting four guys who can get to the tin at will on the perimeter along with some vigilante badass on the inside is the best course of action. i concur.

apparently memphis has been playing possum with us for awhile; i, along with many others, thought this team wasn't a legit two seed. apparently i should have been looking for paper badgers instead of paper tigers.

now, on to memphis being the future of college basketball. obviously, one reason why memphis is the future is the simple fact that their style of basketball is more fun. what dude wouldn't want to run up and down the floor, knowing that his team wouldn't be constrained to run some stupid offense conceived in the 1950's? don't you think that's what sold half of the mickey-d all americans on ohio state? can you see mike conley running some sort of offense right now? lol! what do you see duke, kansas, louisville, florida, and unc doing? we look at memphis some more, and we see competent ball-handling in every game. at least you can't press this team into oblivion (take note, texas a & m). the revolution will soon be televised all over creation, and i welcome it with open arms.

now, on to the monster disappointments: come on down, texas. you seduced us with kevin durant, but ultimately, we discovered the parallels between durant and t-mac ran deeper than we thought; neither guy could take a team that generally sucks all the way to any meaningful kwan. for reference, check out the magic/pistons playoff series.

were all the carmelo references legit? apparently we all forgot this guy:

hakim, i'm sorry. yes, you were the big east player of the year. yes, you were a first-round pick. yes, you do get 12.4 a night for the griz. and yes, you were the needed vigilante. so let's stop pretending that carmelo was workin' downtown for the minimum wage. not happening.

next up: come on down, duke. i was more shocked to find out that josh mcroberts had never gotten more than 22 in a game before the vcu contest. that guy needs to get his millions before everyone figures out that he kind of sucks in a proficient way. also on the chopping block: the big 10 and the acc. maryland done me wrong, and the alando tucker all-stars couldn't quite get it done against a team that could run an offense and play defense. purdue, b.c., michigan state, and indiana acquitted themselves nicely, in the sense that we all are happy that they were invited to the tournament, whatever that means. it's one of those "keep up the good work, guys."

let's play the over/under game

chris lofton's points against osu: 24

georgetown suffering silly letdown to vandy: 40%

ucla/pitt being an utter debacle to watch: 75%

unlv/oregon being the best game of the sweet 16: 30%

memphis foul shots: 30

southern illinois and butler both being down double digits at the half: 40%

anyone i know caring about unc/usc: 15%

i'm out.

tell me a story

yes, i will.

there is a magnificent bird that flies around ohio state's campus. it kills small rodents without a second thought. it is majestic; it does not fly away when humans walk beneath the branches of the tree in which it lives by mirror lake.

i have often wondered what it might be like to see that same bird attack college students who use words like "increasement" on their exams.

presumably, it would be similar to the same bird attacking a graduate student who claimed that the markup of a firm that is a price-taker is (e/e-1).

there is only one group of individuals that know the answer to this question-they are from montreal and use a variety of techniques to convey messages to us. among these techniques: music.

quiet desperation.

analogous to the story: the minnesota timberwolves, the most interesting team on the planet.

Air Force is dancin'

Joe Lunardi currently has Air Force as a #9 seed. You may think this is high for a team with a 4-game losing streak including loses to TCU and Wyoming. Let's take a quick gander at who in the tournament hashad losing streaks of 3-4 games this season: Florida, Duke, MichiganState, Marquette, Syracuse (not comprehensive.) You say, "John...those teams lost 3 or 4 in major conferences... that's forgivable -no TCU or Wyomings involved." Okay, but Butler has lost 4 of it'slast 10... 3 in the mighty mighty Horizon league which is no MWC.

"Butler has a better resume."
Okay... Creighton lost 3 of 4 in theMVC at one point and had some pretty bad non-conference losses. (I think Creighton has been looking tough, but their RPI is at 20, which is astounding to me. It kind of gives me a little insight as to how Missouri State got left out last year.)The difference with Air Force's bad streak is that it came at the wrong damn time, homey. You do not want to head into the NCAA losers of 4 straight.But each of those teams listed, either played themselves off the bubble subsequently, or reclaimed previous form to re-solidify their tournament position. 2 weeks does not a season make. Air Force has shown that, up to the last 2 weeks, they were not just a tournament team,but one who could conceivably make a sweet sixteen. How does one play themselves out of a Tourney Bid? Sustained horridness. (See Clemson, Oklahoma State, and Wichita State.) While Air Force's sins over the past 2 weeks have been bad, they haven't been mortal. They finished tied for 3rd in a league that was thought a lock to get 3 bids up until this week. That should still put them in, right? What about the other team in 3rd? Air Force has a win at Stanford and a win against Texas Tech to back it up. San Diego State doesn't have those wins. The Mountain West is arguably the best Mid-Major conference in the country. (MVC probably barely edges them out... just slightly.)

But the most compelling argument is the "Who's going in ahead of Air Force?" argument. A lot of the Bubble Teams have had futile conference tourney runs. West Virginia, Depaul, Clemson, and Michigan are all out after failing to get a marquee win to boost bubblicious resumes. FSU is maybe in, but not ahead of Air Force after losing to UNC. Kansas State is in the middle of a game effort against Texas Tech, but if they lose, that win against Texas just isn't strong enough to support an NCAA case. In other words, the number of teams who can play themselves ahead of Air Force has dwindled to the point where they may be in by default. And even still, check out their resume. .

Without getting into too much detail about "quality wins", "bad losses", and the mess that is the RPI in too much detail, they still have their work up until those last to weeks to put them in. Ending on a high note definitely makes an impression on the committee, but they do look at the whole season... if they didn't, Butler is a bubble team since they punched their ticket in the first month of the season.Hey... stick 'em in there as a number 10 seed and whose to say they don't revert to their old form a la Florida and still make a run to the sweet 16? That's the beauty of the tournament. By the way, John's 6 Bubble teams in (if Air Force is now a bubble team and we have to throw Stanford back on there as they didn't take advantage of the opportunities they had...) are Air Force, ODU, (I worry too much), FSU, Purdue (about to get a big win over Iowa), Illinois (almost a lock if they best Indiana), and K-State, since I'm smelling a win over Texas Tech right now. In the event Illinois or K-State loses, I'm putting Drexel in over Missouri State. (Drexel has "done more" than Missouri State.) although those are the last 2 out for me, for now. Mississippi State has randomly decided to make a go of things by beating UK. They are a win away from displacing a team that's ahead of them. Also, West Virginia was game against U ofL - mere competitiveness in conference tourney's have translated into bids before - but I don't see it happening. I'll just say they aren't completely dead yet.

The Case Against Air Force....

I am painfully aware of how good Air Force was until January 16.

Air Force was an obvious lock two weeks ago. Their record was still strong; and they had all the marquee wins from the pre-conference season and looked like a tournament team.

Then they lost their last four games.

Now we look at Air Force and we have to wonder. Air Force beat Santa Clara, Stanford, Texas Tech, Wake, Colorado, Long Beach State, and GW in the early part of the year. That's huge, and their RPI shows it. Based on this, they are IN. GW is likely going to the dance. Air Force is IN.

Air Force also lost their last four games, putting themselves far behind BYU and UNLV as the best two teams in their conference. They lost to the worst team in their conference (TCU), and, with bubble status at stake, lost to a very marginal Wyoming team. Based on this, they are OUT. They are way OUT.

Why does the OUT outweigh the IN?

The answer is partially this: Air Force isn't the only team who had a huge stretch in the out-of-conference.

Appalachian State and Drexel came up huge out-of-conference, as did Nevada. These teams performed significantly better in conference at the end than Air Force did. All three of them lost in their conference tourneys toward the end. Air Force lost in the first round. Nevada is in, Appalachian State is likely out and Drexel is the sexy pick to be in.

Another answer is this: What makes Air Force different from Florida State and Purdue? At this point, not a whole helluva lot. All three teams have marquee wins, although the obvious case is that FSU's marquee wins outshine Air Force's. All three teams have bad losses, with FSU's losses being marginally worse than the other guys. All three teams are fatally flawed; Purdue can't win on the road, Air Force doesn't even look like the same team as the early part of the season suggests, and FSU is kinda too little, too late.

Why is Air Force different from ODU and Illinois?

They have similar records, but different trends.

Consider this: ODU is in because omitting them would be egregious at this point. Their loss was bad luck, not a sign of something else. For some reason, George Mason gets all happy when tourney time comes and plays outrageously well. ODU beat Toledo, G'Town, Drexel twice, VCU, Richmond, and UAB and is in.

Illinois is in because they played their way in, beating Indiana and Penn State to punch their ticket. I thought they were out but now I think they're in. Call me fickle.

Why else is Air Force screwed?

Some people have Arkansas in, and maybe they deserve it now. Their out-of-conference doesn't seem that bad anymore.

K-State is probably out, because I think OK State punches their ticket if they beat Texas. That'll knock out Texas Tech too since they lost to Air Force.

Here's the bottom line: if Air Force had wanted to go to the tournament, they should have gotten pumped up to beat Wyoming and should have taken out TCU. With these two losses, they put themselves in a position to be watching teams like OK State, Arkansas, and Illinois take their spots; this has happened now. I don't think the committee's gonna put in a team that's likely at this point to lose in the first round, and I think Air Force is done.

-mike

Bracket update... BRACKETOLOGY

Since I posted on Tuesday, the bubble has become infinitely clearer.

We can eliminate all of these teams from bubble consideration: San Diego State, UMass, Clemson, Bradley, and Alabama.

Stanford and Air Force are in real trouble.

Let's try to clarify this with a real quick "back of the envelope" re-seeding, looking at Lunardi for guidance...

The 1's: UCLA*, OSU*, Kansas, Florida*
OSU is a #1 if they beat Michigan, Florida is a #1 if they do alright in the SEC tourney, and UCLA is a #1 if neither Wisconsin or UNC win their conference tourneys.

The 2's: Wisconsin, UNC, Texas A & M*, Georgetown
Texas A & M is a #1 if they win the Big 12 tourney.

The 3's: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Washington State, Pittsburgh
All of these teams have done enough now to secure their slots.

The 4's: Louisville, Texas, Nevada, Maryland.
I'm not buying UNLV at all as a #4. Louisville's win over WVU has to be enough given Maryland's struggles.

The 5's: UNLV, Tennessee, Virginia, Notre Dame.
UVA could be a 3 over Southern Illinois if they win their conference tourney.

The 6's: BYU*, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt.
BYU is on the rise.

The 7's: Duke, Butler, Boston College, Creighton.

The 8's: Xavier*, USC, Kentucky, Marquette.
Xavier is on the rise here as well. Marquette is falling fast...

The 9's: 'Nova, the 'Cuse, Indiana, ODU.

The 10's: Michigan State, Arizona, GT, Texas Tech.

The 11's: WINTHROP, Purdue, Kansas State, WVU

The 12's: WRIGHT STATE*, VCU, Florida State, Illinois*
Tougher than we think... Illinois takes Air Force's slot.

The 13's: Vermont, DAVIDSON, ORAL ROBERTS, GONZAGA

The 14's: Akron (I think they win the MAC), Long Beach State, Holy Cross, UPENN

The 15's: WEBER STATE, NIAGARA, BELMONT, TX A&M CC

The 16's: NORTH TEXAS, DELAWARE STATE, EKU, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE v. CCSU.

Last 4 out: Drexel, Stanford, Appalachian State, Air Force
Next 4: Missouri State, Clemson, UMass, Michigan.

Some thoughts on the bubble:

An extended Air Force discussion is coming; Stanford is out. WVU is in for me but out for almost everyone else. I just think WVU's record deserves a good hard look. ODU has to be in at this point. At the 11th hour, I put in two Big 10 teams.

brackets.

I was going to use this post as a sounding board for my anger at Susan Linn, the Harvard psychologist who came out against Book It this week, claiming that "in the name of education, it promotes junk food consumption to a captive audience ... and undermines parents by positioning family visits to Pizza Hut as an integral component of raising literate children."

Then I realized that someday I want to do work that upsets people that much. It would be sweet to be her kid though... no pizza and soda for you- only organic chips and salsa! Maybe berry juice!

One question: would anyone take Linn seriously if she was, from, say, Illinois State? Credibility is everything, baby! And the Crimson wonders why Princeton and MIT have taken the kwan in recent years.

Whatever, let's move on to sports.

The only thing I've really been interested in lately is college basketball culture related to bracketology. I tried to make my own bracket a couple of weeks ago, but I'm not very good at it yet.

For the first time, I've actually tried to analyze the bubble in a meaningful fashion. Normally, I go through each team in a sort of cursory fashion, but I wrote out the meaningful wins and bad losses and have figured out the teams I would probably pick for the dance.

Let's assume there are five spots like Lunardi does, and let's analyze the teams.

I'll go ahead and put in Purdue. The difference between Purdue and Illinois is this: when push comes to shove, Illinois only has two meaningful wins. They have a whole bunch of meaningless wins, but only two meaningful ones. Let's forget about the fact that the Illini have twenty-plus wins in the Big 10; Penn State, Northwestern, and Minnesota are basically free wins in that conference. Those three would be in the bottom half of the Missouri Valley; their non-conference records prove it. Now, if you take away those wins, Illinois has exactly two big wins: one over Indiana, the other over Michigan State; in a must-win at Iowa, they choked. They've got a play-in game coming; but need that marquee win. Purdue, meanwhile, has some hideous losses, but at least they beat some decent teams when it counted. The Big 10 isn't getting six teams, though. That's not happening. It's Purdue OR Illinois, and I'll take Purdue.

I'll go ahead and put in the winner of the FSU/Clemson game. I think it's a play-in. Clemson basically played themselves out of the Dance, except they spoiled it by beating Virginia Tech on the road, giving them one more marquee win. Their out-of-conference doesn't look as bad anymore, and if they hadn't lost to Wake they would be in. Florida State is a dangerous team and should be let into the Dance based solely on the fact that on any given day, they could be a Top 10 team. Unfortunately, on any given day they could be bottom 100 and so they're stuck in a play-in game. They got swept by Clemson and if they lose again, they'll be 19-12 with three losses to a team that is also on the bubble.

Let's go ahead and put one more Big East team in the Dance. Whoever goes further between WVU and DePaul is in the Dance. I know Depaul has a ton of losses, but they're pretty much identical to FSU (as far as I can tell) which gets them there if they win a couple in the Big East tourney. Of course, since 'Nova's on the bubble, they seem destined to struggle in the first round. WVU's win over UCLA counts more than people think.

Let's go ahead and extend an invite to Old Dominion. They beat Drexel twice in the head-to-head, and knocked off Georgetown. Somebody has to go in from the CAA; if they only get one bid, the tourney's heads will be on the line.

Let's go ahead and put in Missouri State over Kansas State.

It's a tough call to do this, but I think Kansas State has failed to impress; down the stretch, they had a number of chances to get to 11 wins in the Big 12 (a sure lock) but failed, most notably going down in flames to Nebraska. They beat Texas; Missouri State beat Wisconsin. Which is more impressive?

Sweeping Bradley is probably more impressive than sweeping Missouri, which is something Missouri State has in its favor. They also have history in their favor; they were in an identical position last year and got screwed. That history is on their side.

If K-State beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 tourney, we'll talk. Personally, I think Bob Knight won't let that happen.

What are the Wildcards?

Here are five quick scenarios I forsee that could really make life interesting for the bracket committee:

1) Washington makes it to the Pac-10 final.

They'll have to be in at that point, as they'll have beaten Oregon, UCLA, and USC at least once, probably twice. Now they would be .500 in the conference, and they're a hot team right now, making this utterly possible. Do you bounce Stanford? I can't imagine why you would. Seven Pac-10 teams would have people screaming.

2) New Mexico State makes it to WAC final.

Yuck. NMSU now stands at like 24 or 25 wins, which you have to weigh differently because they were on their home court for the conference tourney. They knocked off Fresno in the semis, so you know they're decent. What do you do?

3) Michigan beats OSU in the quarters.

This is a problem, because now Michigan has shown success against a number one seed. You'll definitely have to re-evaluate the whole Big 10, as they might have six legit teams.

4) SEC West Team in Final.

You'll note that this is probably the most likely of any of the circumstances; although you would think that Kentucky might end Alabama's hopes in a panicked "we might be on the bubble sort of way." Ole Miss and Mississippi State are the one and two seeds, and might fall victim to UK in a similar way. Georgia/Ole Miss should be a good one. It should be a wild tournament.

5) Air Force loses to Wyoming.

Now Air Force would have to sit squarely on the bubble, with four consecutive losses going into the Dance. They lost @ TCU, the worst team in the conference. SDSU's about as convincing at this point. What do you do? How much do victories over Stanford and Texas Tech count at this point?