The glorious NBA draft, and the relevant thought experiment that accompanies it.

There is a humorous story that is quite relevant to the NBA draft. I will tell it to you with haste.

"My father gave me a dollar to spend on what I liked. I traded it for two quarters, because everybody knows that two is more than one. I traded the two quarters for three dimes, ‘cause three is more than two. I traded the three dimes for four nickels, because four is more than three. I traded the four nickels for five pennies, because five is more than five! I ran back to tell my father. He looked at me, tears in his eyes—too proud of me to speak!"

Our story begins with the Atlanta Hawks, and their decision back in 1992 to trade Dominique to the LA Clippers for one Danny Manning. Manning was sneaky good, to the point that he led a substandard Kansas team to the kwan in a meaningful way. He was an undeniable All-Star at the time, and Atlanta believed that it would get to the prize only with Manning at the helm. After all, ‘Nique sure as hell couldn’t rebound, and he didn’t D up, and it soon became easy to point out what ‘Nique didn’t do as opposed to what he did do, which was score a slew of points. Pretty soon, the deal was done, and Wilkins was off to LA.

The problem is, of course, that Dominique is the best player that has ever donned an Atlanta Hawks jersey. You point to ‘Sheed or Dikembe, or perhaps Steve Smith. I point to ‘Nique, and the fact that he energized a city for the NBA. You know, Atlanta used to be a legit city, with legit All-Stars and legit fans.

Then the dark times came. Manning for ‘Nique was $.50 on the $1, particularly with the injuries that kept Danny from being truly great. And pretty soon Atlanta fell into the “less-is-more” trap; they signed Isaiah Rider and Christian Laettner, and acquired Shareef, Glenn Robinson, and Stephen Jackson to heal their wounds. They couldn’t make use of Jason Terry, and year after year they suffered from too little defense and too little scoring.

And they threw Steve Smith away, which angered the basketball powers. The basketball powers responded by punishing Atlanta severely: with selections like Cal Bowdler, Roshown McLeod, Dermarr Johnson, Atlanta struggled for years, losing what they had built on the backs of Spud, Doc, Willis, and the Human Highlight Film.

The low point came so many times: the trade of Diaw and his subsequent brilliance, the Shelden Williams fiasco (where they basically committed to signing Shelden over taking Brandon Roy, the uber-obvious pick), the Marvin Williams over Chris Paul call…

And then came last year, when Joe Johnson decided that it was time to ascend the throne previously vacated by ‘Nique. Oh, in typical Hawks fashion, he couldn’t play the whole year, but there was hope. Knight knew there was hope this year, which is why he bit the bullet and drafted Al Horford, because Joe Johnson and Al Horford will probably work well on the court together and with any luck, he has ‘Nique and Willis again. And that’s a start.

Knight learned from his mistakes in a brutal way. Isiah Thomas and Danny Ainge, however, are just starting the learning process.

Isiah is under the impression that his team is one great or two decent players away from being very good. This is flawed: with Marbury and Curry as the 1-2 punch, they are 1-2 great players away from being great.

Here is where the thought experiment comes into play: which NBA teams have better 1-2-3 punches than the Knicks? The answer has to concern Isiah: a whole bunch. In the East, the Pistons, Bulls, Celtics, Bucks, Heat and probably the Raptors and Cavs have better combos. (We won't even mention the West). I say Raptors and Cavs because Bosh and LeBron are superstars, while Randolph, Curry, and Marbury are not. They just aren’t superstars, folks. They are very good, but they are certainly flawed in ways unbecoming to stardom. Trading the Franchise was an alright move (although trading for him was quite silly) but trading Channing Frye was ominous and a reach. Why do I make this comment? Frye was a lottery pick just two years ago and had a good rookie campaign. He was on the cusp of figuring things out, but since the Knicks had like ten players who needed minutes he never got enough game time to figure things out. Rest assured that in Portland he will get his 30 minutes to do well.

Taking Chandler was a nice move in the way that taking Balkman was a nice move; both players can contribute in a good way on an NBA level, but their upside is certainly limited. He’ll sit on the bench like Mardy Collins, and we’ll move on with our lives.

But Isiah sure got praised for taking on Zach Randolph, didn’t he?

Ah, Danny Ainge. Like a fool, you traded away the opportunity to take sure-thing guards for two consecutive years for fool’s good. Can Ray-Ray get you to the playoffs this year? Certainly. With Paul Pierce, definitely. You have a premium top three, and if Gerald Green decides to learn how to play basketball this year, you would definitely get there. But the problem was that your team would be much better off with Brandon Roy and Corey Brewer, which is not where you’re at now.

So I’ve run through my introduction. The Hawks did well to take Horford, while the Knicks probably missed and the Celts mortgaged the future.

The Blazers did well in the same vein. We’ll see how Steve Francis impacts the team: if he can somehow stomach being a pass-first point guard, the Blazers could be a playoff team next year, particularly with the solid front court that they’ve acquired- hint: Oden, Frye, Aldridge, Pryzbilla and McRoberts will be the serial hotness. Still, they might have been better off with Randolph, and there’s no depth in the backcourt.

The Sonics were silly and drafted two players that sort of play the same position, which is always ominous. I think the idea is Durant at SG and Green at PF, with Rashard at SF. But it’s going to be a tough year if Rashard doesn’t re-sign. Wait, Rashard didn't re-sign.

Now, if Seattle signed Chauncey….

Memphis doesn’t have a plan to fix their team, but they’re trying hard to avoid people catching on to this fact. Taking Mike Conley helps, but the obvious question now is who will score for the team. My guess is that it's going to have to be Rudy Gay, and we'll see this year whether or not he is going to be more than "Monster Mash." Dallas Mavs fans know what I mean by that.

Hopefully the NBA will stick to their guns and disallow Yi to play in the league unless he plays for the Bucks. If college players are going to get screwed by the league, everyone else should be too. I thought this pick was suspect due to Yi’s height, so we’ll see how it plays out. I have little to no tolerance for J.D. Drew quality moves in the NBA, though, so I would like to see Yi disallowed until he shows up for the team that drafted him.

Corey Brewer was a safe pick for Kevin McHale, who has sort of rebuilt the backcourt in Minnesota, albeit a little too late for KG.

Here is the most interesting call of the draft: Charlotte’s idea to go for it right now.

I always have the same problem when playing computer games that involve my building of an army and using resources to do various things. Simply put, I don’t do these things fast enough, and I’m always enamored with the idea of building super fancy weapons that don’t have very good practicality. Subsequently, I get my a$$ kicked.

In some sense, this is how Vancouver decided to build their expansion team many moons ago. They drafted who they thought would be potential All-Stars at each position, and they were patient to reap the rewards.

The only problem, of course, was that their fans were not as patient, and as players like Mike Bibby, Shareef, Antonio, and Mike Dickerson struggled, fans lost patience and stopped watching the Griz lose every single game. Honestly, who can blame these fans? Certainly not me.

So it was gut-check time for MJ, because a perfectly acceptable plan would have been to take Brandan Wright and to let him develop into at least a serviceable NBA starter, if not an all-time great of some sort. Yes, I know that greatness shouldn’t be trivially bestowed, but you have to keep in mind that Wright was supposed to go about 3 in the draft for a long while and really didn’t do anything to deserve such a slip. He was a steal, and the Bobcats could have easily rested on their laurels.

They would have had almost every right to do so. The problem is, of course, the Vancouver effect, and the fact that the Charlotte fans are now in their fourth year of existence and do deserve some sort of answer. And thirty wins won't cut it: it just won't do. So MJ rolled the dice and traded for J-Rich, because he had to, and trading for Richardson is, quite frankly, a better idea than signing a free agent. We know that this has to be true in a world where Rashard gets max money: moreover, J-Rich does seem to have some sort of passion for the game. He organized a letter of apology to Warriors fans for not making the playoffs, and he was intense in the playoffs.

Adam Morrison, get ready to stop sulking and crying. J-Rich will represent in a powerful way.


Now I am going to make an outrageous claim: Joakim Noah will be the second coming of Rod-zilla. Before you judge, note that Noah has all the characteristics: one, he is a complete, unintelligible maniac, whose decisions don't make any sense whatsoever. Second, he is of no use on the offensive end, but he is completely aware of this and doesn't require his own shot, or even really to be integrated within the offense. Third, he is an arrogant jackass, which means that he will be useful on the defensive end and that he will do his part to rebound on the glass in order to show how great he is.

I also think he has great rebounding instincts and excellent defending skills. Of course, the fact that he is playing with Ben Wallace on the Bulls means that they have like three players who do the same thing, but at least they're not re-signing PJ Brown.


Sacramento should get an F-minus for taking Spencer Hawes and putting him into a situation where Miller will hate his guts, since he's basically there to take over the job. They should have taken Julian Wright, who was the steal of the draft for the Hornets.


Now, let's get a glimpse into the Hornets' war room at pick nine.

Byron Scott: "So, we're taking Nick Young with this pick, right? More scoring, something to save us when Peja decides to take half the year off?"

Jeff Bower (Hornets GM): "Yep."

Scott: "Any shot at Al Thornton here?"

Bower: "No, we have David West."

Scott: "Fair enough. Do you think we have a shot at anyone falling here?"

Bower: "Doubt it. I think the Hawks are dead-set on Acie Law, but I think we'll be looking at Hawes, Thornton, Thaddeus Young, or Nick Young."

Scott: "Hawes would be nice."


Pick 9: Chicago takes Noah.

Scott: "Kings are taking Wright here, right?"

Bower: "Should be. He would replace Shareef or Ron-Ron."


Pick 10: Sacramento takes Hawes.

Scott: "Why didn't they take Wright?"

Bower: "I've got no idea. I don't think Atlanta can take him. Philly probably takes Al Thornton."

Scott: "Wait, we've got Wright available at our slot?"

Bower: "Yeah. You want me to take him?"

Scott: "Hell-yeah! I thought you said we had the 13th pick!"

Bower: "Byron, we do have the 13th pick."


Pick 11: Atlanta takes Law.

Scott: "Why did Wright fall so far?"

Bower: "Shut up! Philly might take him."

Scott: "No, Billy King has assured me that he doesn't want his team to improve this year."

Bower: "Al Thornton's too obvious of a pick for him to mess it up."

Scott: "Dawg, I've got the inside track and it says he's gonna not let his team improve this year."

Stephen A. announces that the Sixers take Thaddeus Young two seconds before...

Pick 12: Sixers take Young.


Bower: "I gotta admit, you were ahead of me on this one."

Scott: "Yeah, I've been in this league a while. Anyone who trades Allen Iverson for Andre Miller isn't in a hurry to get there."

Bower: "Sure you don't want Nick Young? We do have David West."

Scott: "Dude, last year you took Cedric Simmons and Hilton Armstrong for me. I put up with it because I know that we needed some warm bodies. But they kind of suck."

Bower: "If I take Wright, they'll be displeased."

Scott: "If they couldn't get minutes last year, they'll never get them. I'm done with these cats."


Pick 13: Hornets take Wright.

Note that later on in the draft, the Sixers actually traded for Jason Smith, ensuring their lack of willingness to improve.


Some interesting picks occurred after some time. The first pick was Stuckey to Detroit. I can imagine Dumars cursing at the two guards he put out there when Rip and Chauncey were too tired, vowing to never let that happen again. Thus, he took Stuckey out of necessity. This is also known as the "Billups contingency plan: if Chauncey didn't resign, he would be replaced from within." The other pick was Nick Young to the Wizards, or the Arenas contingency plan. Basically, Washington had no way of knowing that Gilbert would explode as he did, and thus has no ability to really re-sign him. However, the Wizards lucked out when Nick Young became available, because he'll be able to start in a year and could be a pretty good player.

Daequan to the Heat was interesting because it is an ominous sign for Dorell Wright.

And you have to love Houston's "don't let the door hit you on the way out, Rafer" pick, Aaron Brooks.

Other thoughts on the draft are as follows: first, there were an unreasonable number of second round picks that were pretty good and might stick. I say "might stick," because historically, there have been a number of very good college players that we all surely thought would make the league without problem that just haven't. They just haven't, and that's why we should be careful to say that McRoberts, Byars, and the gang will be any different.

I would have bet the farm on Steve Logan myself. At the very least, I would have gone all in with Chris Carrawell.

I leave with two San Antonio-related scary thoughts:

One is this: if the Spurs were willing to gamble on Marcus Williams in the second round, they might know something about him that we don't. In that case, the West had better watch out.

The second is this: Tiago Splitter fell to the Spurs. I don't necessarily understand why NBA teams that are vying for the kwan don't make more strategic picks: everybody on Earth knows that the Spurs love versatile South Americans, so why let a good one fall to them? Splitter has been on everyone's radar for so long that there should be no excuse.