Monday, May 07, 2007

helton's last stand.

don't miss the end of an era.

it's early, but todd helton is hitting .383 and appears to be in the groove that he was in during the late '90s, which is a treat. and you had better watch it now, because helton's days are numbered in colorado.

when cardinals broadcaster wayne hagin openly accused helton of taking steroids, he unwittingly shook the confidence of one of the greatest pure hitters of our generation. this is a shame: a now-marginalized helton had the stigma of "doper" attached to him without due process. helton "over-reacted" at the time, but the damage had been done: when helton couldn't replicate the power numbers of the late 1990s, an anecdotal case was easily made that helton was using, and it's pretty likely that he'll be convicted by baseball writers when it's hall time. hopefully, that's not the case.

what compounds this problem for helton is the humidor effect: helton has had to reconstruct his swing to account for the fact that what the baseball used to do in colorado doesn't happen anymore. this has led to a pure emphasis on line drives, which is no longer good enough in our day and age. so helton had pressure to hit more home runs, but the baseballs were designed to make him hit less.

helton was one of the first players in colorado to be legitimized as being good without the "coors effect": you can make the case, of course, that galarraga was the first, but helton is the first home-grown rockie to really make it big. helton could hit anywhere, not just coors: he frequently hit over .300 on the road, with some power. coors aided his totals, but like tony gwynn and mark grace before him, helton could hit anywhere. that wasn't all: helton won three gold gloves, and is frequently viewed as a decent guy.

now, colorado has been looking to replace helton for some time now. helton's huge contract, coupled with his significant reduction in power have caused the rockies to think that they might need to look in another direction. that's a shame, considering helton helped the franchise through many lean years. the rockies have been unconscionably bad at times: a complete lack of desire to acquire pitching, coupled with an equal lack of desire to acquire premium bats have caused a once-promising franchise to suffer and become one of the worst in baseball. prospects exist to replace helton, but the probability of them being as good as helton is pretty low.

important note: there was talk last year of a trade that would have involved mike lowell and julian tavarez being dealt for helton, or, as we like to call it in baseball terms, $.20 on the dollar. in fact, helton had "slipped" to the point last year that he was being talked of as a red sox reserve, despite the fact that the red sox haven't had a legit first baseman since mo vaughn. and no, my friends, the wonderful kevin millar doesn't count, nor does the greek god of walks, the "youk."

because of decision-making skills like this, it's not likely that we'll see the rockies in contention during the rest of helton's career: the team has frequently refused to sign dominant pitchers, only succumbing twice in their not-so-storied history, and failing to hit paydirt both times. mike hampton succeeded for about half a season, and darryl kile didn't even succeed that long. because of this, the rockies are forced to outscore teams, which only really worked when galarraga, burks, and walker were dominant. by the way, larry walker is an obvious revolutionary who needs to be recognized. we marvel for the promise of sizemore, but let me alert you to the truth: larry walker was sizemore in a pure way. one of the saddest baseball moments was the demise of the 1994 expos- that team could have changed baseball in a way we can't hope to understand.

but i digress, because this should be all about the last stand of a proud warrior. helton is challenging .400 this year: maybe it won't last forever, but it will last for a time. helton is one of the only current players who even could hit .400: he has the eyes of a hawk (check out the BB/K ratio) which means he won't hack himself out of it; and he can hit line drives. in short, he is tony gwynn. there's something to be said for that.

so tune into your heroes now, before they get snatched from you. it's a tale that baseball has told for many generations.

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